Pelicans Rising, Thunder Looming [OC]
Playoff Picture
Tonight, as the NBA Regular Season draws to a close we will see the result of the four remaining playoff races in a dramatic finish to a dramatic season. Although no two teams vying for the same seed will face one another tonight, nine of them will play against other playoff and lottery contenders. The sole team still in contention not playing is the Los Angeles Clippers, having wrapped up their regular season with a win over the Phoenix Suns last night, they secured themselves either the 2nd or 3rd seed in the Western Conference. Leaving the Grizzlies, Spurs and Rockets to decide their fate in what’s left of the Mexican standoff deciding the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th seeds in the West (The 4th goes to Portland due to the archaic not-so geographical division system). In the Eastern Conference the Bulls, victims of the same outdated seeding system, have to beat the Hawks if the Raptors beat the Hornets. Lower down in the same conference the Paul George led Pacers secure their 8th seed if they get a win over Memphis should the Nets beat Orlando, but if Brooklyn gets beaten a loss will let Indiana keep their playoff berth. Similarly, back in the West the Pelicans have an uphill battle to secure a place in the playoffs by taking out the intimidating Spurs this evening, and should they lose, they leave themselves open to being eliminated if the Thunder earn a victory over the weaker Timberwolves.
http://gameatatime.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Conferences.png
Of all of these races, that of the Thunder and Pelicans has arguably the most impact on the future of superstars in the NBA. That Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis are two MVP candidates (either of them finishing second, let alone winning, would be a huge upset, but being “in the conversation” is a stellar achievement in it’s own right.) leading two teams in a battle for the 8th seed is nothing short of remarkable and really speaks to the strength of the Western Conference if not the whole league, as well as being a reminder of the archaic geographical conference system.
Breaks of the Game
This whole situation exists largely due to several factors. The first being the injury of Kevin Durant although both sides have had plenty of injuries with both Westbrook and Davis themselves missing not insignificant amounts of time. It would have been interesting to see, if both teams had been healthier and the Thunder higher in the standings would the Pelicans be in a race for the eighth seed at all? Perhaps with Dallas (who are five games clear in the 7th seed) as opposed to the Thunder, it’s certainly a possibility, one we won’t get an opportunity to see play out until next year although who knows how the landscape will have changed by then.
The second factor is an absurd Anthony Davis buzzer beater against a fairly healthy Thunder side that included both Durant and Westbrook in February. That one basket is responsible for the race being so tight as it gives the Pelicans the tiebreaker over OKC and should it be the deciding factor deserves its own second line.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=kmar9bLehVY
A third factor is the rescinding of Russell Westbrook’s sixteenth technical foul earlier this week allowing him to play against the Trail Blazers and give OKC that vital gasp of oxygen that could just have helped them clinch this 8th seed. As far as decisions go it seems to have been a good call to rescind it and it isn’t an isolated change as no less than 46 technical fouls have been rescinded this season.
https://twitter.com/talkhoops/status/587645855978520577
Nevertheless both teams have been unlucky and although missing the playoffs probably has better long term benefits for either team, Russell Westbrook is not the kind of player to take a step back and be told they’re playing the long con, with his give it all attitude every night it’d be hard to imagine he’d pay attention to anyone trying to tell him to take it easy. On the other hand you have Anthony Davis, earmarked to be the next greatest player in the league (with some speculating he’ll go full bloom as early as next season) could be completing his third year of the NBA without seeing the post season. The 22 year old must be chomping at the bit for some playoff action. Bullying either player and making the potentially smarter play in terms of health and the teams future with two such stars has the potential to do a lot of harm relationship wise especially considering both players’ milestone seasons. A healthy star who doesn’t buy into your organisation’s plan isn’t going to get you much further than one who is injured.
Davis vs Westbrook
While both stars have their claim on the future, Westbrook has very much put his stamp on the present. In what is widely regarded as an NBA season of superb quality, Westbrook has stood out with no less than 11 triple-doubles, 31 double-doubles and broken his career high multiple times (the most recent on Sunday against the Pacers in the video below) but still might miss the playoffs. When KD went down in the pre-season all the people who wanted Westbrook to go full Westbrook, got their wish, in one of the most exciting performances of the NBA earning many comparisons to Kobe in his prime, even from Kobe himself who appears to be attempting to recruit his replacement in LA.
In the meantime Westbrook is on a team designed to have two of the NBA’s top players and one of the NBA’s top defensive presences. When you remove two of those pieces (along with a half a dozen less valuable pieces) the situation tends to get a little hairy. Even though Westbrook hasn’t done enough to keep himself at the top of the MVP conversation he managed to snag the scoring lead, with 28 points per game, from James Harden (27.5 PPG) over the last couple of weeks meaning Harden has to put up a monumental amount of points tonight and hope Westbrook barely scores. An unlikely scenario, which if it doesn’t happen could leave the Rocket candidate without an official accolade come the end of the season as Curry seems to be getting a slight edge in the MVP discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=l3nGGYgjwiU
As for the future, Anthony Davis is still not the perfect player by any means but is playing with a style (and body) that defies the historic comparisons fans, the media and even players (see Kobe above) so often like to make, the 22 year old is improving at an astonishing rate and has gone, not unnoticed but slightly out of focus as there has been so much else going on this season. Despite this he is fourth in the scoring leaders with 24.3 PPG right behind LeBron in third with 25.3 PPG, as well as having made no less than 41 double-doubles this season. And for a player who hasn’t reached the pinnacle of his defensive potential he is about to have the most blocks per game for the second season in a row with 2.9 leaving Serge Ibaka (2.4BPG) and the revelation that is Rudy Gobert (2.3BPG) in the dust.
So You're Saying There's a Chance?
Unfortunately as exciting as this race and it’s stars are it is somewhat nullified by the fact that the Golden State Warriors will almost certainly crush both of these teams. A more interesting match up would be if they could combine forces and morph their rosters like some kind of NBA Power Ranger robot. But sticking to the realm of reality neither team has what it takes on paper to beat Golden State in a series. Sure both teams have had big wins against them in the regular season. The Thunder just doesn’t have have the interior defense it needs without Serge Ibaka to protect the basket, who could miss the first series, unless he pulls a similar stunt to last year’s series against the Spurs which would be a move with a lot of heart but would be a risky move considering it still probably wouldn’t be enough. And even with Roberson back in the line up the Thunder’s perimeter defense is unlikely to withstand a series against Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.
New Orleans, whilst in better shape health wise right now (although they had their fair share of injuries this season) just don’t seem to be good enough overall to take down the Warriors in a series (despite clinching a win over them a week ago). Regular season results don’t mean much in the playoffs with so much more on the line. This isn’t to say the Pelicans are a bad team and shouldn’t be in the playoffs, they’d just be facing a far deeper team having a historically good season. On top of this the Pelicans also have a much tougher game this evening, more than likely having to beat San Antonio to avoid elimination who have recently entered their usual late season ball of death phase and are on a eleven* game win streak, not having lost since March 25th. However if the Pelicans can pull off a victory over the San Antonio death wagon in pre-playoff mode it’ll be no meek accomplishment and a final affirmation of their presence in the playoffs. That is of course unless San Antonio decide to play the standings, but given the uncertainty of their playoff berth, I doubt even Popovich will play that card and would expect a war tonight.
Saying all of this, seeing either Anthony Davis or Russell Westbrook, both of whom are athletic anomalies in their own right that are capable of pulling off preposterous plays on the court, dragging their teams to a new level and pulling off an insane upset would be as fantastic as it is unlikely. As a spectator and basketball fan what it really boils down to (not to detract from their sublime seasons) is whether you would rather see plays like this:
or this in the playoffs:
The Pelicans or the Thunder? New Orleans or Oklahoma City? Davis or Westbrook? Only two of those questions are tough to answer (and relevant to basketball). Tonight we’ll have them answered and either result could make for a chance at an entertaining series for one team and a more interesting 2015/16 season for the other.
T.P. Stockton
Cheers for reading, if you got this far I hope you enjoyed it, any feedback is appreciated!
As usual you can view the piece with better formatting on my blog: http://gameatatime.com/pelicans-rising-thunder-looming/
Also credit to u/sqectre and u/goran_dragic for the two highlights at the end.
*The post orginally stated that the Spurs were on a twelve game win streak when it was actually eleven.
Posted Apr 15, 2015, 4:53 PM UTC · edited