Why you all should alert on N1.
Posted Apr 19, 2015, 2:56 PM UTC
315
Well, I declare you, a veteran lord
2
A good way to think of a single town of Salem is like a game of Poker.
Vet baiting is like going all in with a pair of 2s. Yea, sometimes it's going to work, but statistically it's a terrible play and you'll lose more often than you win with it, especially against more skilled players.
One of the hardest things for people to understand in Poker is you can do the best move and lose, and you can do the worst move and win. But that doesn't change what's a bad move and what's a good move.
2
Wow.
You've just picked the best example possible.
Perfectly sums up N1 alerts.
It's not good because it worked once.
1
I seriously hope you guys don't do this.
2
Picking a name that gets you attacked on night one changes this, but in all other cases alertung n1 is always a bad idea, and is generally a waste.
Having a name that gets you attacked loses you the game in most other roles, so isnt worth it trying to win, either.
1
Alerting night one is statistically bad, just because you got lucky once doesn't make it good.
It's partially due to luck, partially due to them vet baiting d1, and partially due to stupid mafia. Role blocking the person they're going to kill?
It's on par with people say "Got lynched as Jester D2. Best strat!" but the ignore that they did nothing but spam the chat with "Dickdickdickdickdickdickdick" over and over to the point the town knows they're jester but wants them dead.
Roleblocking someone before you kill them is valid
But not on Night 1. If you were sure they were doctor/bodyguard or someone that can use a night ability to save themselves, then sure go ahead. Roleblock and kill so they are 100% dead.
On Night 1 though? What kind of doc self heals on night 1 lol.
N1 alerts aren't as bad as they seem. In ranked, there are 4-6 town members visiting people, depending on town supports, while there are 3 mafia, 1 neutral killing and sometimes a witch.
The thing is the town visiting roles are going to visit together, while the mafia aren't going to do that unless they have a Janitor or stupid.
Yup, exactly this.
I did the math on it, and when excluding the any role, town has on average 4,3 visiting roles.
Maffia has 3 visiting roles (janitor, disguiser and mafioso are a bit weird, but they're still a visiting role nonetheless)
Neutrals have 1 visiting role on average N1 (so no WW).
It's around a 50/50 chance to shoot an evil looking at this.
Mafia is only going to send 1 visiting role, maybe 2 with a Janitor (I don't think it's good to simply clean your first target though).
While if you do a Vet bait on D1 you're going to get visited by Escorts, Invests, Sheriffs, BGs, Docs, Jailor, maybe Trans etc.
It's just not worth it.
But again, like I said, the odds of getting an evil role are about 50/50. (I don't vet bait btw, not N1.)
It's not all too bad, and to be honest, most of the time I'd gladly trade a bodyguard to get a godfather or a NK aswell.
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If you look at my games, statistically, alerting N1 is the best thing ever. (Possibly because of my name?)
I've had 20 vet games, and in 13 of those I alerted N1.
In 9 of those games I killed an evil, or more than one evil N1.
In the 7 games where I didnt, I got killed 4 times, out of wich I got cleaned aswell twice.
For those wondering, I kept track of it since I started in ranked since a friend said alerting N1 was a controversial thing to do.