A statement on the Odds from SWCT support.

I'm guessing this is a form letter response, but I appreciated the sentiment:

Hi there,

Thank you for writing in. We always appreciate hearing from our fans!

I understand your frustration with the odds in pulling inserts in The 1977 Master Pack odds. While it's rare to go through, say, 100 packs on 1:20 odds and not receive an insert, it is entirely possible. Imagine it like this:

400 packs are sitting in a large pile. On 1:20 odds, that means 80 packs (or roughly one out of every 20 packs) in that pile contains an insert. You and everyone else are rushing to grab packs from that pile. Everything is mixed in at random and you're grabbing packs at random. Say there are 20 of you taking packs. That's 20 packs per person. Because it's random, there's a lot of options for where the inserts end up. Sure, it's possible one person could end up with all their packs containing inserts. Or even that everyone gets at least 1. However most frequently there is a mix. Some people might find 1 or 2 inserts. Some people might find none. A few lucky souls might even find 3 or 4 inserts!

And while some may not believe in luck, it certainly seems in action sometimes. You may go through a period of time in which you seem to pull inserts without difficulty! And then you might go through a week or two where they seem incredibly elusive. We here on the support team play, too, and trust me: we have felt the pain ourselves!

All I can say is that I understand, and I wish you all the luck in your next chase.

Happy trading,

Stark Star Wars: Card Trader Support

Posted Jun 22, 2015, 8:56 PM UTC

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jacobseagallJACOBSEAGALL•11 yr. ago

LOVE this response. Very human and transparent.

87ninefiveone87ninefiveone•11 yr. ago

This didn't explain anything except what the concept of what odds is....and as already noted their math is wrong. Actually....This explains a lot.

aimx54LAFOOTBALL•11 yr. ago

Haha... I hope they mean 20 packs have inserts in their example, not 80, or else their odds really are off! 1/20 x 400 = 20, not 80.

Or maybe things really are just random and programmers are throwing caution to the wind when it comes to basic arithmetic. Hence the seemingly random odds at times!

lightmanx5ERUTHAED•11 yr. ago

GOOD CATCH! WOW! 80≠20!!!

cx40•11 yr. ago

Imagine it like this:

40 packs are sitting in a large pile. There are currently 2 different Space Paintings available. At 1:20 odds for each, that means 2 packs (or roughly one out of every 20 packs) in that pile contain an an orange Bacta painting, and 2 packs contain an orange Lair. You and everyone else are spending credits to grab packs from that pile due to the double-dip.

But wait! Despite the transmission claiming 1:20 per card, in actuality the odds are not as stated! Suddenly it's 1:20 for ANY orange, meaning the odds per unique orange card are 1:40. Therefore, there are only 2 orange inserts in those 40 packs, rather than 4!

All I can say is WFT, right?

Happy trading,

Stark Star Wars: Card Trader Support

lightmanx5ERUTHAED•11 yr. ago

And ToppsSteve tweeted this:

http://www.baseballcardpedia.com/index.php/Odds

ShaceHolduDARTHHOLDU•11 yr. ago

I don't think anyone is lost on the concept of odds. I believe the concern is about whether or not stated odds are accurate.

gellmanDigitalCardCentral•11 yr. ago

I stand by my theory that opening packs at times when there are a lot of people opening will increase your odds of pulling the inserts. Seeing it laid out like this only confirms that.

If only 20 packs out of 400 have the cards in them, you want to open with a bunch of people to suck up the other 380. The fewer the people opening, the more packs you will have to open to get to those 20 packs.

This basically says that its not the users who have 1:20 odds, its 1:20 odds for ALL packs opened.

daser2DASER2•11 yr. ago

I think your theory is wrong. Their example is a metaphor.

You open a pack and a random number generator of some kind determines the outcome. It is not affected by other users.

Even if you are correct, which you are not, your theory doesn't make any sense. The cards would be randomly distributed throughout the packs. Every single pack is just as likely to have an insert as every other pack, and every other person opening packs is just as likely to pull an insert as you are. You may as well claim that when others are opening the packs, they are going to get all those inserts that were meant for you and you will get the empty packs.

gellmanDigitalCardCentral•11 yr. ago

Based on what I have heard, my theory holds more water than you would guess.

[deleted]•11 yr. ago

[deleted]

mwhaskin•11 yr. ago

It's like the lotto. Say a scratcher has 1 in 4 odds of winning a free ticket. Buying 4 won't guarantee you a prize. An even simpler way of thinking about it is flipping a coin. Both sides have a 1/2 chance. If you flip it twice there is a fair chance (50:50 to be exact) that both flips are identical.

sjmleicester•11 yr. ago

I seem to be quite lucky the 77s at the moment. Even if you don't get a 77 you seem to get a load of yellow drops which are always handy for trading. I also don't collect and use them to trade for stuff I do want.