Incoming/Outgoing Call Correlation - 100% as previously stated

I know I said I was done, but my inbox blew up as a result of a posting by RunDNA. While RunDNA attempted to ‘correct’ my analysis – which is admirable – unfortunately, (s)he fundamentally misunderstood the test conditions and as a result, produced a very misleading post.

Summary – the incoming/outgoing call data has 100% correlation (as previously stated)

Fundamental Error – the test condition for correlation MUST BE that the outcoming/incoming call either hit the same sector or adjacent sectors. You cannot limit this to be solely hitting the same sector because even in the case that someone is stationary (but at a cell edge), you can ping 2 different sectors (albeit, they will always be ADJACENT). An example of this would be calls placed from Cathy’s house which is on the cell edge of 3 different sectors. Consecutive calls hitting any of those sector is consistent with the network functioning correctly. However, as we don’t have calls occurring immediately in succession, we also have an issue with mobility. So, 2 calls hitting adjacent sectors spaced out in a matter of minutes is to be expected if the caller is moving (walking or driving). So, we need to test for the following:

Test Condition: Does any call pair hit on non-adjacent sectors within short succession that cannot be explained by driving.

For instance, we ping Woodlawn’s tower and then 5 minutes later we ping a tower in Eastern Baltimore. Adnan could not have driven that far in 5 minutes so the network is clearly misrouting the call. One last caveat – NOT ALL CALLS ROUTED TO VOICEMAIL ARE THE SAME.

Voicemail Patterns

We have 2 different voicemail patterns. The first:

BLTM2 followed by TPA44

Or

Cell sector listed followed by TPA44

In the first pattern, it means that the network was unable to locate the phone so the phone did not ring and the call was routed to voicemail – this results from the phone being turned off or a long period of time between the phone sending location updates.

For the second pattern, it means the network knew where the phone was located and the phone rang. It is also consistent with the subscriber calling their own number to check their voicemail. The important thing to note however – is in the second pattern, the network is ‘guessing’ the location of the handset so it send the signal to a specific sector.

Lastly, we have all tower addresses included in the MPIA file. For those lacking a specific location but are given a geographic location instead, we can use Google Earth to zoom in an see the actual cell tower mast to confirm the location.

So, I will review all of the cases in which RunDNA disagreed with my analysis:

Call 5/6 was excluded – see note about on VM patterns. So, this was a valid data point but if you want to exclude, fine.

Calls 19/20/21 – we have sectors L655B and L608C

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/WRBS,+3600+Georgetown+Road,+Baltimore,+MD+21227,+United+States/UMBC+Alumni+House,+5451+Wilkens+Ave,+Catonsville,+MD+21228/@39.2578505,-76.6696072,17z/am=t/data=!4m17!4m16!1m5!1m1!1s0x89c81d1d7b8e545f:0xfc4fefb0cfd5c460!2m2!1d-76.667325!2d39.259254!1m5!1m1!1s0x89c81dccc7583a33:0x14b8d06fd61dbbd2!2m2!1d-76.7177868!2d39.2581894!6m3!1i0!2i0!3i0 L655 is due west about 4km from L608

The B sector of L655 is E/SE facing. The C sector of L608C is West/SW facing. So, these are adject sectors with overlap – this overlaps happens to be the UMBC campus. So, 100% consistent.

Calls 23-25 – we have sectors L649B and L651C

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/39.3046629,-76.7815583/Social+Security+Administration+Office+of+Disability+Operations,+1500+Woodlawn+Drive,+Baltimore,+MD+21241,+United+States/@39.3097149,-76.781065,14z/data=!4m8!4m7!1m0!1m5!1m1!1s0x89c819514da96e8f:0xfcf2bac4192ed9e4!2m2!1d-76.739222!2d39.3080285

Again – we have an L649B due west of L651C by about 3km. The B sector or L649 faces E/SE and the C sector of L651 faces W/SW . So, these are adjacent sectors with overlap – this overlaps happens to be coverage of I70.

So, 100% consistent

Calls 57/58 – omitted due to time gap of 16 minutes – fine. I did not set a hard and fast rule as I was trying to get a large data set. Notice in my post I stated ‘usually 10 minutes’

Calls 64-68 – we have L698A and L651C.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/1500+Woodlawn+Dr,+Baltimore,+MD+21241,+USA/2040+Powers+Ln,+Catonsville,+MD+21228,+USA/@39.2926398,-76.7444623,14z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x89c819514da96e8f:0x5b7cec6c0addce14!2m2!1d-76.7395485!2d39.30829!1m5!1m1!1s0x89c81ec10a3702af:0x904452e771226fb3!2m2!1d-76.7604855!2d39.287056

We have an L698A southwest of L651C by about 3km. The A sector or L698 faces N/NW and the C sector of L651 faces W/SW . So, these are adjacent sectors with overlap – this overlaps happens to be coverage of I695. So, 100% consistent

Calls 90-93 – we have L608B and L659A

Here, we actually have 3 data points. We get 1 incoming/outgoing pair both pinging the same sectors (so consistent) but then spacing between the calls. So, the question is the relationship between L608B and L659A.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/611+Hammonds+Ferry+Rd,+Linthicum+Heights,+MD+21090,+USA/3600+Georgetown+Rd,+Halethorpe,+MD+21227,+USA/@39.2517707,-76.7161404,12.75z/data=!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x89c81d6834aabe89:0xcfe2986ea494dafc!2m2!1d-76.6654659!2d39.2246213!1m5!1m1!1s0x89c81ce6d8bc0f55:0xa41aeba29defd81d!2m2!1d-76.6673085!2d39.2591263

We have an L659A is due south of L659A by about 3km. The A sector or L659 faces N/NW and the B sector of L608 faces S/SE . So, these are adjacent sectors with overlap – this overlaps happens to be coverage of I695 I895 interchange and north residential area.

So, 100% consistent x3!

Calls 121-123 – we have L649B and L698C

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/39.3063288,-76.7884741/2040+Powers+Ln,+Catonsville,+MD+21228,+USA/@39.3024773,-76.7892567,13.25z/data=!4m8!4m7!1m0!1m5!1m1!1s0x89c81ec10a3702af:0x904452e771226fb3!2m2!1d-76.7604855!2d39.287056

We have an L698C is due southeast of L649B by about 3km. The C sector or L698C faces W/SW and the B sector of L649 faces S/SE . So, these are adjacent sectors with overlap – this overlaps happens to be HW40 (Baltimore Pike)

So, 100% consistent!

Now, I have already done this with every single data point that I posted previously so I know how this story plays out. You can test it yourself with the remaining call pairs – all the sectors are known. All of the cell tower addresses are known. There is a 100% correlation between incoming and outgoing calls.

So, with that – I drop the mic on my way out of the building….