A Guide to Controlled Turmoil pt 1: The Basics

This is a follow up to my Overheads and Turmoil guide and discusses how to manage turmoil so we lose the systems we want to.

First of all, the best way to understand how turmoil works in practice is to play around with the Turmoil Risk Calculator tab in the System Summary Sheet. Alter the dropdown values in columns B and C to build scenarios to see where we stand at the end of the cycle. It's not perfect, it doesn't take into account Preparation costs and ED can't even agree on what a system's income is between different pages of it's own interface, but it gives a good ballpark position.

In short, we want low income systems as near as possible to the top of the "Top 20 Threatened Systems" list.

 

The TL;DR is that our systems will be lost to turmoil in the following order:

• Undermined and uncanceled high-income systems

• Takurua

• Undermined and uncanceled low income systems

• Systems that are far from from Polevnic that are neither undermined nor fortified

• Systems close to Polevnic that are neither fortified not undermined.

Fortified and uncanceled systems are not lost.

 

So, here's how, say, Felicia Winters would go into Controlled Turmoil

• Only fortify the systems she wants to keep

• When the bad systems get undermined, their upkeep shoots up

• At the end of the cycle, because so much upkeep had to be paid, CC balance is negative. Because the bad systems that were undermined have the highest upkeep, they are the ones that go into turmoil.

• Get a small negative CC balance for the next cycle. Turmoil systems revolt. A couple more systems go into Turmoil.

• Get a positive CC balance for the next cycle. This will be trivial even with a couple of turmoil systems, since so much dead weight has been shed. Turmoil ends.

 

We have a much trickier time with that, since we simply aren't undermined very much and annoyingly, our high value systems tend to have high upkeep because they're on the borders. In a sense, we're the only power who doesn't get undermined ENOUGH!

We're going to have a hell of a time losing only bad systems, since all our best systems are on our borders, but losing systems like HIP 108110 isn't too bad since no other powers are likely to expand there, so we might be able to get it back in the future. Losing good systems in order to lose bad ones later might be a pill we have to swallow in time, bitter as it is. The good news is we'll save so much in Overheads with each system lost, the actual effect on our bottom line in the short term will be minimal.

 

My advice for best practice going forward is:

• Don't fortify any bad systems (<100CC income as a rule of thumb) if they are being undermined. This will ensure they're at the top of the Turmoil Risk list

• Don't help preparation or expansion to any system under 70CC income unless you're doing it to outcompete something worse. Make sure any expansions of less than 100CC income happen well away from Polevnic so we can shed them later.

Please do ask any questions if anything's unclear. I do get that this system is a bit arcane.

 

PS I'd also like to debunk an argument I've seen a lot here about not wanting a decent surplus because less smart players will use it to prepare bad systems. I'd say that if we didn't have to use all our manpower fortifying 20+ systems a week, we'd have a lot easier time out-preparing these bad expansions, plus we'd actually have enough to prep some good systems, not just the crap we can afford with a ~70CC surplus.