What are the odds of missing a naked level 3?

Was playing castle wars and I know a skiller who joins just for call outs and catapults.

Point being, I missed him at 122 range 190 (?) Ranged attack and dragon bolts including rigour.. (on rapid so only +1 ranged vs +3 from accurate)

I have a basic understanding of how combat accuracy is calculated, but God damn what are the odds of missing him like that? And if anyone who knows the formula better could give me a rough estimate on the odds. He was 1 def no armor nothing of the sort.

Tfw you roll a 1 on your attack roll :(