Super Tuesday: How We Win/Where to Put Efforts

Disclaimer: I am not a professional political analyst nor do I speak for the campaign. This is just my perspective that i've developed from observation of data and information. Please help out the campaign in anyway you can and wish.

I believe that we have two paths to success on Super Tuesday: One hinges on "thriving" and the other is "surviving". The states voting later in the primary season are more favorable to Bernie, so we need to get through Super Tuesday in ok shape. To me, surviving is winning 5/11 states and not losing by massive margins in the others (very doable). Thriving is winning 6 or 7/11 and not losing by massive margins in the others (doable, albeit not most likely scenario). Here's how we make it happen:

1. Vermont strong Sanders We will win here by epic margins, no doubt. Don't call this state unless you are from it and are reminding neighbors to GOTV. Getting 83%+1 vote prevents Clinton from getting any delegates.

2. Minnesota leans Sanders Being from this state, I can tell you that we are in excellent shape for a victory on March 1. The last Star Tribune poll was absolute crap, they had Obama down 30 2 weeks before the caucus in 2008 and he won by double digits. I am certain we are either tied or slightly ahead. The enthusiasm and volunteer base is off the charts, and the Clinton campaign hardly has any infrastructure here. I think there is enough support in this state that if you're picking where to phone bank, you should select a different state. The team here is highly competent, and everything is pointing to success.

3. Massachusetts lean Sanders All signs point to us making huge strides in this state, even PPP has us +7%. I'm not sure about the ground operation here, but there are many liberals and younger people in this state to carry it for us. I feel very good about this state as well, and I think our lead will only grow here.

4. Colorado Toss up This state is very similar to Minnesota with the caucus system, but it's much more diverse. Recent polling has been scarce, but it seems that we have a winning formula in this state as well. I still would call into it and volunteer if you can, just because Clinton has a larger ground team in this state according to Maddow. The Hispanic vote is definitely very close, as seen by the results in Nevada, so while we have many college and younger voters to support us we need to make sure we win this state by more than a point or two.

5. Oklahoma Toss up This state should be a solid for us, but according to Maddow and other political pundits, very few people actually know what is going on in Oklahoma. The demographics lean our way, and I hear the college campuses will probably deliver a victory for us here, but I think that the lack of attention this state gets should be looked at. If people are as confused about their primary in their state as we are at a national scale, we need to put in more effort here.

6. Virginia Lean Clinton This is what I call a "momentum" state. If we regain the momentum, we can definitely win here. If not, we will not. I think we should put a lot of effort in this state. It's younger, but more moderate and has a decent minority voting share. With that said, there are clear signs the race is tightening here, and Maddow indicated a strong field presents by our campaign here. There are many delegates here and winning here would put into question Clinton's ability to carry the mid-Atlantic establishment region.

7. Tennessee Leans Clinton This is a state within our grasp, despite polling showing a wider margin. The primary goers in 2008 were roughly 30-35% minority, which is very similar to Nevada. It's true that majority of these folks are AA which we struggle more with than Hispanics, but that is still not an overwhelming margin. Racking up state wins, particularly in a state that is slightly diverse even if not majority, would be huge for us.

8. Texas leans Clinton This one i'm not quite sure about. It should be a Clinton stronghold, but a recent poll has us at less than 20% behind, and she went here immediately after Nevada signaling a tightening race here when ignoring South Carolina. Because this is a primary, and there are hundreds of thousands of voters in Texas, if we rack up the score high enough in college communities and Austin, and win the Hispanic vote, I think we could narrow this to a single digit race. There are so many delegates here that we don't want her to run away with this state by over 10% at the max. Definitely help out here if you can.

9. Arkansas Strong Clinton Sorry, but we aren't going to win this state, despite some folks really believing we can. Clinton isn't extremely popular here like Sanders is in Vermont, but she had a tremendous advantage over Obama here in 2008, winning the AA vote over him. Narrowing the gap would be awesome, but this one is going to be out of grasp from us.

10. Alabama Strong Clinton Maddow said we had a stronger ground game here and got here first, but unless there is a seismic shift in AA support in roughly one week, it isn't going to happen. Still, I love hearing that we have a strong ground game here. Perhaps we can narrow her victory her to high single digits. That would be remarkable for the campaign to avoid her racking up too many delegates.

11. Georgia Strong Clinton If there is one state that loves Clinton the most, it's probably Georgia. Yes, we just held a YUGE event there and got a few endorsements, but Rep. John Lewis and the AA community there are so influential that we won't overcome this. ADDITIONALLY reports say she has a stronger ground game here, which is exactly what we wouldn't want in such a strong state.

So, in summary, I think Oklahoma, Colorado, Virginia, Tennessee, and Texas should be the biggest targets. Of course call or canvass wherever you can, but we can win some of these states with your help.