First Time International Traveler

I am flying from NYC to Istanbul around the 1st of June. I know how the price of international airline tickets go up slowly for a few months, then about at the 90 day mark before the flight, they start to rapidly increase (or at least that's what I've read.) My two cheapest options are Turkish Airlines or Delta. Maybe someone can recommend one over the other. I need to make a decision pretty quickly as the day I get paid will be day 89 from the day of departure. The main question I have, is what happens if they decide to cancel my flight or something else happens? All of the ticket options say non-refundable and the price of the round trip (May 31st to Aug 23rd give or take a day or two) is the equivalent to an entire months worth of pay for me. I would be pretty devastated if I were just out that much money. Can someone give this first time international traveler a bit of advice? Thanks.