Chesapeake Energy surged 23% today after saying it can pay off debt due next month. Time for buying puts?
"Chesapeake Energy Corp. surged 23 percent after saying it will pay off the remainder of a half-billion dollar debt that’s coming due in three weeks with proceeds from asset sales that were twice as large as the company expected." source
Due to this very ridiculous increase in share price today, I started to research buying puts expiring March 16.
The 2016 guidance and FY15 financial report shows several important points which influence my decision:
- Their total debt is still valued at over 50% of their total assets and their total debt is up 33% YOY
- Total assets down over 50% YOY
- 15Q4 lost 1B net cash from investing (acquisitions and drilling) and financing activities
- 15Q4 EBITDA was -2.4B
- Free cash flow of -160M
- The 2016 outlook is poor, expecting production growth between -5% and 0%
- Currently have almost 14K in written call options at $87.25 strike, indicating that they think oil is going to stay depressed and they will be punished by a significant bounce back in prices
- Conference call was cut short at 30 minutes and no more questions were allowed
- 2016 capital expenditures "will be focused on shorter cash cycle projects", most likely due to the tons of debt
- I am unsure about this part so please correct me if I am wrong: Their conference call today mentioned they reduced debt by 2.1B from bond buybacks and debt restructuring since December. Their 8K filed Dec 23 says they issued 2.4B principal on their second lien in exchange for 3.9B in their new principal, the difference being 1.5B in debt reduction. This means they spent 600M in bond buyback, 240M of it on the March debt (according to Bloomberg).
Accompanying press release:
- Sold 700M in assets since Jan 1 and plan to sell off an additional 500M to 1B "by year end", totaling further asset decreases between 7% and 10%.
- Produced 500M in net proceeds after selloff, but assets sold represented an estimated 4.5% of total production
- They did not include information about short-term debt in the press release, but in 15Q3 it totaled 900M. Their long-term debt due in March was 500M
- They have made zero progress on existing long-term debt, although they have started to repurchase their bonds
- Last debt paid off was in June 2013
Analysis: I think the guidance and financial report look very poor, and the press release on the same day announcing the sale of 700M assets so far this quarter is just a distraction. They are liquidating a lot of their assets and have not made any significant progress on long-debt in years. Yes, they raised 500M in proceeds so far this year, had 800M cash and cash equivalents at the start of the year, and bought back 240M of their March bond debt, but they have a negative FCF and 1.4B debt due on March 15.
Short interest of 40% agrees with me, do you? Why am I wrong?
Posted Feb 25, 2016, 1:41 AM UTC