Prediction Markets: Donald Trump's probability of winning the GOP nomination down thirty points to 53% since Super Tuesday
betfair.com/exchange/politics/marketactivity?...
betfair.comPosted Mar 5, 2016, 11:17 PM UTC
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betfair.comCan you explain how to read this chart? What are the unit of time on the bottom? Just overall since the primaries started?
Also, how is this data created? Is this reliable in any way? I went to the root webpage address, and this looked like an online gambling site...
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Check the box that says "Inverse Axis". That will convert the chart into the implied probability over time of Trump winning.
It looks like the data goes back as far as when Trump announced.
The data is created by the money bet on Trump to win the nomination. If tons of money is bet on him to win, Betfair (which is a gambling site) will adjust the odds to a point to where 50% of the money is bet on Trump to win and the other 50% is bet on the remaining candidates. The implied probability is derived by the odds that the market has settled on.
Is it reliable? I think it is a good indicator. I don't think there are enough transactions (volume) for it to reflect a perfect market but it's good enough.
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Thanks, that made it much more understandable! I didn't know that there was a market for gambling on this sort of thing... learn something new every day!
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Back up to over 60 now. Big fluctuations for Trump and Cruz today.
edit: It looks like Trump gained back basically all the % he lost from today. The biggest change is that the market thinks Cruz has the second best chance, instead of Rubio. Meanwhile the presidency odds look reeeaal bad for the GOP.
edit2: oh boy Rubio had a rough night. He's dropping close to Kasich level of odds.
Predictit actually has him lower than Kasich. Rubio's only path to victory is through a brokered convention, which would probably pick Kasich at this point. Choosing Rubio would cause Trump to revolt and split the ticket. With Kasich, maybe Trump would agree to stay on board.
Not that a brokered convention is particularly likely anyway. Trump should win this. Even at 65% or so, he's way undervalued. I'd say more like 85-90%.
Unfortunately, I have to agree. The debate might have hurt him, but not enough, not sustainably with Rubio performing this weak. By any other standard, Trump is in a dominant position thanks to all the screwing around.