If Watergate never happened, who would have won in 1976?

Let's say Watergate never happens for whatever reason. I don't know, the CREEPers are smarter about their taping or J. Edgar Hoover lives a little longer-no cooperating FBI means no Gray hearings and definitely no Felt leaks, although contrary to popular myth, the former was more important than the latter. (Hoover, although far more accepting about changing times than Nixon, would tolerate Congressmen who want to look at IC dirty laundry for all of about 10 seconds anyway.) So, Nixon serves through '76. Who wins?

This would be a tough question to ask without knowing exactly what would happen in Nixon's second term, but I have some general ideas on how that might turn out. Economy will probably suck even worse-that'll help the Democrats-but obviously, no Watergate and no Ford/Reagan civil war means that the GOP is a lot less weak in the general election. Nixon's foreign policy will probably be pretty successful, particularly the stuff related to the Soviet Union, East Asia, the Middle East, and Europe-"detente" might not be as dirty of a word-but the old dissatisfaction from both the left and the right that Watergate exacerbated will be there and will probably get more intense in 1975/1976. Although the specific beef will be different for Left and Right, both will eventually revolt at Nixon's "morally neutral" approach to the assorted dictators of the world and his and Kissinger's autocratic disdain for public and Congressional opinion in foreign policy.

My personal guess is that Nixon will probably leave with middling "Obama" level approval ratings, maybe a little higher given the relative lack of political dysfunction and Nixon's superior political skills, maybe a little lower if some ugly stuff about the administrations leaks out. Not loved like Reagan/Clinton nor hated like Carter/Bush, neither a great help or hindrance to his party. Feel free to state otherwise if you feel otherwise. One other important thing to note is that Watergate contributed immensely to the aura of "politics and government is the problem", which helped both Carter and Reagan. The process of cultural norms, particularly in the media, would still go on (legacy of Vietnam and the long 60s), but it would be slower and less politically emphatic.