Dota 2 - Manila Major discussion

As there was some response to this post, let's see if we can get this going.

The Manila Major 2016 takes place from June 3rd to June 12th. See here for more info.

Teams (With Pinnacle winner odds)

Team Liquid 5.540

OG 6.850

Newbee 6.840

LGD Gaming 8.550

Alliance 11.010

Team Secret 11.340

Wings Gaming 6.380

VG Reborn 14.350

Evil Geniuses 23.180

Fnatic 34.190

Complexity 41.710

Natus Vincere 34.190

Digital Chaos 28.320

MVP Phoenix 32.480

Empire 56.250

Mineski 221.700

As for the favorites, I think it's correct that especially Team Liquid, OG, Newbee and Wings are the main contenders. Liquid were very dominant at Epicenter and seem to be extremely consistent throughout. OG did well at Epicenter and recently won Dreamleague. Miracle is probably the best player in the world and is alone almost enough to secure them favorite status. Newbee recently set the world record for longest winning streak (until they were beaten by OG (whom they later beat in the loser bracket final) at Epicenter). They came in second after Liquid at Epicenter. Wings won ESL One Manila, beating Liquid in the finals and have been fairly even with Newbee in the Chinese scene (as far as I'm aware). At these odds, it's hard for me to see any value on any of them.

Which brings us to the interesting outsiders. To me, there's especially two that stand out. Fnatic has recently had some roster changes when the legendary Mushi went on break for health reasons. He returned to compete at Epicenter where Fnatic did very poorly, which perhaps is the main reason for the high odds above. But recently they have looked extremely strong, with a 3-0 victory over MVP Phoenix in the grand finals of The Summit 5 qualifiers as a high point. With this in mind, the odds above, with MVP Phoenix @ 32.48 and Fnatic @ 34.19, is enough to indicate that there is value on Fnatic and that their poor performance at Epicenter perhaps can be ascribed to "rust". The second outsider I have in mind is DC. Their current roster is fairly new and they have yet to compete at a LAN. However, in various NA qualifiers and tournaments they are currently on a 4 series winnings streak against Complexity, who in turn finished third (?) at Epicenter. With some successful unorthodox drafts, including core Jakiro and Meepo in the hands of w33, they are in a perfect position to make a splendid debut at the LAN scene. Keep in mind that their roster includes two Shanghai Major winners.

Let that serve as a short introduction. There's still much that can be said about this tournament so let's turn to that in the comment section...