Venue decision - help needed

My fiance and I have been engaged for about 1 month - we have looked at a few wedding venue options and are now trying to decide what the best way to go is. We are having a winter wedding - December 2017 - we have approx 180 guests.

One venue (which we both love!) holds a max of 500 people but they can corner off the room so it is not as big - there is an area for a cocktail reception and the dinner/dance. Meal options are 1 carved and 1 entree, pasta bar, 4 salads, 3 starch, dessert table all for 40bucks a head.

The second venue holds a max of 140 people (this was VERY cramped and I would not want more then 120 tops). Menu option is 1 meat, 2 starch, 2 salad and a dessert bar (which we would have to opt out of because they cannot guarantee it being peanut free and I am deathly allergic) for 40 bucks and 9.00 per person extra for an extra meat option.

They are roughly $500.00 difference in price when it is all said and done.

My worry is that the first venue that we love will look silly if we only have 120 or so people show up due to weather and because it is only 8 days before Christmas. Do you think it is worth spending the extra for the way nicer venue, better food options etc and hoping that it doesn't look to empty if not everyone shows?