Source
r/poker•
wayneomac

Deep Run at Maryland Live $400 $75,000 guarantee hand question

Discussion

Hand in question comes up day 2 of the $75,000 guarantee this past weekend at Maryland Live.

Hero has just moved to a new table and is BB.

Hero has not played with villain at all during the tournament. Hero is 30 year old white male who plays semi regularly at this buy in level and has not played with villain. Villain is mid to late 40s average Joe who I have not seen at any of these tournaments.

Blinds 2500/5000 500 ante Villain 64,300 TC Hero 120,000 TC

Action folds to Villain on the button and he raises to 11,000. SB folds

Hero looks down at AsTh. Hero?

Posted Jul 11, 2016, 1:17 PM UTC

1063
Bloodyfluxcapacitor•

With 13BB, Villain should probably be openshoving most of his range here. The fact that he instead minraised looks kinda strong to me.

5
hesbunky•

Disagree because middle aged live $400 player. People raise fold 7bb in mtts like this.

16
wayneomacOP•

I don't understand why people down vote comments like this. The comment people raise fold 7BB in MTT like this is a true statement and the middle age of this guy is very relevant. While you may not agree with this advice that is not what the down vote button is for (content that does not contribute).

9
flatbrimsnapbax•

It's getting DVd because of the way you are presenting the info about the player imo.

It's being presented as if his age, color, and someone you don't recognize as a reg is the most important part of your decision.

That's the way I read it anyways

1
wayneomacOP•

Understood, while I can see that if I posted nothing and said no reads people would also say give me a description of the guy, there must be something you can say about him.

1
hesbunky•

Without a history the ONLY way to make reads is appearance/demeanor. The includes things like age. Are you serious?

1
RealityOracle•

Unless they have AA-77 and AK-AJ in which case they snap call.

1
hesbunky•

Hand ranges. How do they work? Also lol at thinking a middle aged dude inna $400 is snap calling 77, 88, AJ here.

1
RealityOracle•

You'd be surprised, then. A lot of these players satellite in at much lower buyins. They're not far removed from the donks at your local cardroom, and yes they often run deep in these MTTs.

3
wayneomacOP•

I don't know that I agree that they snap call 77-99 and AJ. If they do call they are not snaps (Even though they should be). We are risking 12 BB to win 4.6BB. If we are called we have 30% against the range that you have listed. So I guess the question is do we have enough fold equity to shove?

1
RealityOracle•

You have a lot more fold equity if you stop and go, shoving the flop, than if you shove now. A lot of hands that would snap off PF won't call after a likely missed flop.

Keep in mind the LP open may be inviting action. You're assuming they have a weak hand most of the time. Absent of any reads, that's a loose assumption.

1
wayneomacOP•

While I would agree if the villain was a 25 something male this is a 45 year old rec player. Against a reg I would much rather call a shove then ship over this raise.

2
Bloodyfluxcapacitor•

I must admit that my tournament experience is pretty much exclusively online so that detail passed way over my head. Good to know :)

1
wayneomacOP•

Online I agree that that raise is scary as hell.

2
hesbunky•

Seems like a really standard effective jam.

4
wayneomacOP•

I agree and that's what I did wrote it off as standard and that was that. Came home and wanted to look at all my spots as I do to study and put this one in ICMIZER last night and its saying AQo+ AJs+ and 88+. I feel like that is way to nitty especially against live players who will raise fold 25% of their stack.

1 more piece of info I should have added was there were about 56 players remaining and 36 pay. We don't care about a min cash though so this spot is all about chip EV.

4
Kleberson13•

These are very good points. Live MTT players will raise fold way too wide like you said. Ship seems perfectly reasonable to me especially when he is the button and could/should be opening relatively wide to steal blinds and antes. Ship also forces the avg Joe to make a decision for his tourney life

1
andrew7895•

It's very standard like you said and I agree that the range you mentioned above seems way to nitty to me as well. He only had ~10 blinds BB's left after all so it can't be terrible either way. He could be raising there with any Ace, in which case you'd have him dominated, or even as wide as K10, QJ, any small pair, or even just a straight steal with any two cards because he happened to see on the last WPT episode that you should always raise the button if folded to you.

You're obviously not folding so I guess the only other way to play it would have been just calling and then jamming/giving up on the flop depending on the texture - with the latter being pretty weak overall.

0
dank420stank•

Shove > Fold > Call

3
olapetter•

Wager all of your chips.

2
BibleBeltAthiestLive Fish•

Seems like he is probably gonna go with it if we jam so I really like a flat since we have no reads and this is the line with least variance. Tourneys are all about survival so we want to preserve our chips as much as possible. If we get it in good we are hoping for 45% equity in a flip situation, but more often than not we will be dominated. He will most likely play very straightforward post if he is middle aged male. If you are playing this type of tourney you can't be afraid of playing post flop with this type of holding. Playing post sometimes allows us to even steal when both of you miss.

2
wayneomacOP•

I do think there is a lot validity to this point as there is something to be said for taking the lower variance route. Trying not to be results oriented and think if this is really a shove or a call.

2
BibleBeltAthiestLive Fish•

I dont think a shove is bad whatsoever and probably pretty standard since villain can easily have hands we dominate like KQ KJ suited and worse aces. But again this is only part of his range and i think that if you plug whole range into equity calc we are 50% at absolute best. Calling and shoving are both reasonable plays but i think calling is much better. Download pro poker tools and run some maths if you really wanna study this spot.

1
bro_can_u_even_carve•

We don't dominate KQ/KJ with AT. Only worse aces and worse tens.

1
MathWMTTs, 100NL, 200NL•

If you were calling off 13 BBs with ATo...meh..maybe a bit more marginal of a situation (that's probably why your ICMizer said you should be calling tighter). However, you have fold equity here since button elected to raise instead of shove. The fold equity probably makes this a shove.

1
wayneomacOP•

I put the action in of him raising to 11000. I gave their standard button open range since I have 0 information on this guy but I just wanted to see opinions because I didn't even think about questioning my play in the moment. I was expecting a fold and got the "I guess I call" with AK. I think his not so happy call off here on what should be a easy GII for him makes this shove even better as this live villain may have folded AJ here.

2
MathWMTTs, 100NL, 200NL•

Right, you are getting folds from AT, AJ, maybe some low-mid pairs and also some hands you are ahead of, but don't necessarily want to see such as KJ, KQ, QJ.

1
Kleberson13•

He's not calling... He is the one shipping making it a tough spot for the button. Shipping >>> calling a ship, always

1
redsoxnets5•

Online I'd feel suspicious of this and be much more happier calling off had he just shoved. However, I've noticed live that people don't really seem to understand stack sizes (and when to shove and all that), but they do understand that you're supposed to steal the blinds from late position. I think his range here is wider than we'd imagine. You clearly are posting this because you shoved into better, but I think it's standard and quite profitable.

1
wayneomacOP•

position. I think his range here is wider than we'd imagine

I agree with all your comments and I happily got it in and did happen to shove into better but I didn't even think twice about it and just wrote it off as standard. But your reason I posted this because of what I got when I put it in ICMIZER later that night when I was reviewing all the plays I made that day. This spot I didn't even think was worth a second look at first but asked the question after the ICMIZER result. Sometimes we say things are standard coolers when they are not and other times they are exactly that. Some of our biggest leaks though are when we think we are coolered but we had enough information to make a better play. I do not think this is one of those spots. I think this is a standard spot.

I think the major mistake I made in this tournament happened latter and it may only be a small mistake. HJ raised to 17000 (2500/5000/500) and I have KThh in the small blind with 39000. Is this a GII or is it a fold?

3
PNDiPantsJack king off flops the nuts•

It depends a lot on the hijack's tendencies I think. We aren't going to have much fold equity at all. Is he always going 3.5x? To me this seems like a medium pair that he doesn't really want a call with, 55-88. I think I prefer a fold because of the raise size unless he is somewhat active and always raising 3.5x.

1
wayneomacOP•

We have 0 fold equity in this spot. The thing is we also have very large antes and are unlikely to have any fold equity the rest of the way. Is K10s heads up the best spot were going to get to actually have at least 30% to climb our stack to playable without winning multiple all ins. I don't think my call off ranges at 6BB are the strong suit of my game as they don't come up a whole lot. I did make the fold and the guy also claimed to have JJ when I said "this spot is going in the notebook to look at." Honestly I could care less what he had just trying to figure out if tis is a fold or a call and the sizing makes me feel we are safe from him have AA and KK.

1
PNDiPantsJack king off flops the nuts•

I agree that this a super borderline spot, we aren't having a conversation with K9s or KQs. Are we really looking for a 30% spot with no fold at this point? I'm not, personally, but it's entirely possible this is a leak. I'd much rather jam T8s or whatever in an orbit and at least have some fold equity. There are a bunch of hands you are in jail against and very little that you have a ton of equity against. Did you run some calculations? I'm very curious.

1
tronbob•

Depends on the HJ but you're down to less than 8 bb, K10hh is a shove unless you got a read.

1
wayneomacOP•

I think I tend to agree and think this was my biggest mistake of day 2 folding this hand. At least here if I win here (30-45% of the time depending on villains holdings) I am back to 87500 (17 BB) then when I actually did get a change to shove again when I only had 30k.

1
HollywoodHackston•

Can we ever flat and eval?

1
In_Other_Words•

How good is your eval game?

1
wayneomacOP•

Eval game is above average for who I am playing with however AT plays like shit and if the villain ships 100% of flops I think we make more folding mistakes than I would care to. I would have to be donking here and I just don't know that ever makes a whole lot of sense.

Maybe I do have a weakness in my game that I don't have a donk lead range at this stack size.

1
HollywoodHackston•

I'd say strong...to quite strong? (Meet The Parents)

1
CosmicAIDSBut it was soooooted•

I think you can easily shove here. I honestly don't mind a call only because you were new to the table and I play at MD live a lot and you have no idea what kind of player you are sitting with ever and just to get a feel for the player. Having said that shoving is totally cool.

1
Midrange22•

I mean, everyone is saying to shove, and I agree because we should be crushing his range.......but is he really ever calling with a worse hand?

1
wayneomacOP•

I think that I can get called by A9s A8s KQ and maybe KJs. I also think those hands along with QJ J10 910 could all be raise folding.

I posted this because in the moment I thought it was a no brainer get it in but like you said what is he ever calling with that is worse and if he is calling worse its a small section of hands. No options to me seem super great.

1
[deleted]•

[deleted]

1
warwickdude2/5 live player•

seems like either a ship or a fold although i would be more in favor of shipping since he has to put his tournament life on the line

1
wayneomacOP•

I'm leaning more towards this. I just thinking flitting we make too many mistakes and if we should not be shipping pre because he is strong what flop do we really like getting it in on?

1
lampshade9909•

So you don't have any read on him as far as his button opening range? Have you seen him open raise at any positions with his stack size? If I knew very little about the button's tendencies and he/I was new ish to the table i would jam.

0
wayneomacOP•

Quite literally just was moved tables as our table broke.

2
lampshade9909•

Shove all day then.

3
HollywoodHackston•

Feels strong.

Jamming over his open feels like a punt.

0
RealityOracle•

Yeah, just because he standard opens in position doesn't mean he'll snap fold most of his range to a shove. Not many live players know to steal in position, and often they're opening good hands here. And when short like this they'll often call a jam.

0
TigerRuns•

I like calling. I don't believe you have fold equity with how much he has behind. The raise does look really strong though. Pay the extra BB to hopefully flop an Ace. If no Ace then it's an easy fold.

I guess I just wouldn't want to get in 12 BB flip vs 66-99

0
[deleted]•

[deleted]

0
RealityOracle•

Stop and go. It actually gives you more fold equity than a PF reshove, which looks like a resteal (because it kind of is). Once he's seen 60% of the board, it's a lot harder for him to call off if he misses the flop (which he will most of the time). And of course, if the flop looks too wet or too ugly for you, calling the open at least gives you the option to bail with 109K left.

-1
wayneomacOP•

Say we do stop in go here. What flops are we leading and when does it make any sense?

3 low cards?

Could get called by low PP that wasn't calling pre flop. Still get called by AK and Maybe AQ

KQ10 Only folding hands we beat anyways, might as well check with gut shot and a pair.

789 two tone or mono tone. Ship here looks like a draw (and it is but were happy to get it against 1 pair hands and AK AQ for the size of the pot.

Qxx or Kxx. Both of these flops we still get called by pocket pairs over the 2nd highest card on get called by all q and all kings. Why would we be donking top pair. May get AJ and AQ to fold on Kxx but AK may still call on Qxx. Our hand taking this line looks most like a smaller pair that sees one over and is hoping he didn't hit it.

I'm trying to see in this case what we get to fold. I think this move is better suited when we are the shorter stack against a larger stack that is going to call off wide (correctly) preflop. I guess I don't see a lot of hands we get to fold on the flop that we aren't ahead of that weren't already folding pre but hands like J9s and QJo that were folding to the reraise that were just a steal are now getting that chance to realize more of their equity of the pot.

I still want to ponder a stop and go here and see if it had merit based on our chip stack and how our position is affected by the loss of 13 BB.

1
RealityOracle•

I'm probably leading/shoving most flops, banking on him not being able to call with the board presented. Sometimes you hit the board. The only flops I'm worried about are all-broadway flops (aside obv from KQJ) that'll likely hit much of what villain would have been raising. And when you're called anyway, the AT gives you some outs.

The fold equity of the stop and go can be greater than the fold equity of a PF resteal shove because an opponent's opinion of their hand is likely to go down once they've seen three cards.

1