Hey everyone, I was thinking about LOADING up on some AAPL shares before their earning report.
Is this a smart idea, or I am I playing a gamble that will ultimately result in me lighting my money on fire?
Thanks for all your feedback!
Posted Jul 21, 2016, 3:54 PM UTC
Two words:
#Pokemon GO
I heard that AAPL is due to make something along the lines of THREE BILLION DOLLARS from this stupid game.
Is that true, or just real loose speculation on their behalf?
I've read the same, and I don't doubt it. That game has topped the mobile market in no time and iirc has the most profit of any mobile game ever. Apple gets something like 15% of the app sales. I'm looking forward to what happens with my shares.
Most profit of any mobile game EVER and has been out for a fucking WEEK.
#SO SICK
Pokemon is so powerful it can rally the markets two-fold after an entire modern country leaves the EU.
I believe apple gets 30%.
Even this stupid game brings a lot of money.
But for how long?
I think it won't last long.
I've read the same article and its BS speculation.
Even with their 30% take on the profits, they said 2 billion in 2 years. They have split downloads between Google and Apple, and Google has the larger market share. So if you're giving them a split market share, that makes Apple at 50% of the downloads. That would mean Pokemon go would have to generate just under $20 billion of revenue over the next 2 years. Which would be $28Million a day.
I doubt it generates that much revenue for Apple.
Plus Google owns a piece of Niantic. Google is also running the infrastructure, well when it is working.
Niantic was spun out of Google in 2015 during the Alphabet restructure. Pokemon Go was solely developed with Niantic, Nintendo, and The Pokemon Company. Google has invested money in them since then, but do not own Niantic.
Edit: Dammit, you said "piece" of the company. That's what I get for skimming.
Apple could get a lot of money from PokemonGo, but that would likely be at a cost of money that would be spent on other Apps. For Nintendo, they will get X amount of additional revenue because this is an entirely new market. For Apple, they are cannibalizing their other app sales.
Pokemon Go is better played through owning Alphabet (Google). They not only get the in-app on Android rumored to be 30% but they also own a piece of Niantic.
Pokemon Go will eventually die down but there will be more games.
Ultimately the two things unique for Pokemon Go is the brand and the mapping/geo platform.
Before Pokemon Go many of us played Ingress. There will be more. I heard there are people pushing for a Harry Potter version of the game.
Apple does need to get their own geo data and move beyond licensing the TomTom data.
I can't wait to lose my fucking SHIRT gambling on AAPL earnings.
Yes, with everything you have - it's a sure thing.
There haven't been any major growth catalysts, but sales estimates have been consistently revised downwards over the last few months. Expectations for the quarter are quite low; however, what makes you think they will surpass those expectations?
If it is a slow quarter for AAPL, increasing shareholder value through an increased buyback, dividend increase, or promoting new products could turn sentiment positive.
I know I won't. Problem is that even though AAPL gets money from Pokemon GO, it's over time and on top of what they usually make. It's an increase, yes, but not as big for them since the company already make so much. You're considering an earnings play on no real basis except rumor it seems. Which makes it gambling.
Feel free to purchase but it's not trading, it's gambling, so you are aware.
Good luck :)
Asking this question (for any stock) means the answer for you personally is no. Because you don't know what you're buying.
/reddit
this