Senate Republicans Defy Democrats' Boycott - The political reality of resistance - Democrats have 1 bullet
npr.org/2017/02/01/512840513/senate-republica...
npr.orgPosted Feb 1, 2017, 6:53 PM UTC
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npr.orgnpr.orgnpr.orgPosted Feb 1, 2017, 6:53 PM UTC
Although I hate the GOP with the fire of a Nova, we are facing the reality that the Democrats can likely stall out one Supreme Court Nominee for the next 4 years. There is a slim chance of taking back the senate in 2018, but it is there. I am just not sure if playing chicken with the nuclear option is the right move so early.
Well, it's not exactly as if stalling the replacement of a supreme court justice will be breaking new ground.
The thing the Democrats are worried about is that Trump will get to appoint a second judge and they will have wasted their only shot at turning it back.
Don't throw away your shot and all.
This judge is viewed as more moderate then anyone else he will pick, and a conservative judge is expected to retire. So its a question of what's the right choice. And honestly of hate to have to make that choice if I was them.
The nice thing is that there's no practical difference between a Justice who's as bad as Scalia, and a Justice who's about a million times worse than Scalia: Either way, that's just one consistent vote for the extremist right. So there's no cost for trying to block a Scalia-like judge and losing.
And if we try to block an extremist judge and win, there's a chance that we'll be able to get someone like Kennedy or Souter that will vote on the correct side every once in a while.
Also - things might be different now, but it used to be that the Republicans secretly blocked themselves from getting too much power on the Supreme Court, because griping about the Supreme Court was one of their best tools for motivating the base. Back in the days of Reagan and Bush Sr., they had a chance to pack the Court, but somehow they never managed to quite get enough Justices that were willing to overturn Roe v. Wade. I always suspected that they were thinking what the long-term political cost of that would be.
There is something worse, two Scalia that are young. That is what the democrats fear.
Trump gets to appoint someone else 3 years from now, even though he is wildly unpopular. But the Democrats are still not in control of the senate and the nuclear option was already used, so they can’t filibuster.
That is worse. Like 100 times worse.
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If Trump is wildly unpopular. Democrats have a better position in the senate. McConnell is dead and there is new leadership. The democrats took back the house in 2018 and the republicans are facing an aggressive liberal wing that is having hearings on them Clinton-emails style.
A lot can change in just 2 years. Right now, we know it is a losing fight. Republicans might back down, but there is a good chance they won’t. We could be handling them 2 seats on the Highest Court.
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They can try, but I’m deeply concerned it is to early. Trump has not done enough damage yet and the GOP holds all the cards.
A second hyper conservative justice could set civil rights back 50 years. I could be dead before we get to make another shift.
How do we know it's a losing fight? Have we identified 50 (out of 52) Republican Senators that are willing to throw out the filibuster? There are still a couple of them that pay lip service to the idea of "stability through bipartisan consensus", as opposed to "laws whipsawing back and forth from one extreme to another, depending on which party holds power at the moment."
Besides, if the Republicans use the "nuclear option", then when the Democrats get back into power they've got an excuse to use the "thermonuclear option", which is to increase the number of seats on the Supreme Court.
It sounds like your strategy is, "Give up without a fight today, in hopes of getting a possible advantage in a fight that might or might not happen two years from now. No promises." Certainly Vladimir Putin is hoping that the Democrats take this strategy, but it doesn't seem very likely to work.
If another seat opens up, I will be 80 by the time those people are off the bench. The voters rights act got gutted because of one Bush nominee. Same with citizens united. This would be two more judges leaning to the right even harder than Roberts.
And my strategy is to critically think about shit, rather than fight just to make myself feel like I'm fighting. I"m all for the right. Block the nomination. But understand that it could backfire in a fashion that could last 40 years.