What if the IC is right about Trump/Russia?
I've been quiet on the issue of Trump/Russia, because I'm really not sure where the truth is. One possibility is that the politicians are abusing the IC for political purposes -- again. That possibility is being discussed quite a lot. What's not being explored as much is: What if the IC is right about Trump being compromised by Russia?
So let's explore the hypothetical possibility that the IC is right.
First, there was the accusation of the Russians hacking the DNC. If there is hard evidence for this, they never released it -- and it's too late for any release to be credible now. But let's assume it's true for the purpose of this exercise.
The part about Russian media/Wikileaks attacking Clinton does appear to be credible. But so what? Nobody is claiming that any of the hacked/dumped material is false. We'd expect the same kind of action by any good journalists or hackers. So what if in this case they're Russian?
Then there was the Trump Dossier. Some of it rings true, some not so much. That's often the case with HUMINT, so again -- let's give it the benefit of the doubt and assume that it's largely true.
There's also the Flynn/Manafort etc. accusations. Again, let's assume they are valid.
Then, in December, we have a round-up of some alleged cyber-HUMINT assets in Russia. Followed shortly by Obama's EO allowing NSA to more freely share take with FIB/DOJ etc.. Is this connected? Could that EO be a response to having these Russian assets rolled up shortly after somebody in the Trump camp was made aware of them? Giving the IC the tools to follow up on this before leaving office would be the logical and reasonable thing for Obama to do. (And yes, it could also have been the politically advantageous thing to do.)
Now we're seeing more accusations leaked -- with no actual proof -- like with the DNC hack. Again, let's assume there's some truth here.
IF all of this stuff is essentially true, and the Obama administration was only able to confirm the more serious aspects (leaking the sources of Russian HUMINT) after the election, then it's playing out exactly as it should.
On the other hand -- if it's purely political theater -- this is playing with fire. Worse even than Iraq WMD-BS, this is setting up a constitutional crisis. If it turns out that the IC is subverting a democratically elected president, then the American people should and will shred the IC. Worse than after Watergate, the agencies will be destroyed and stomped to ruin. Heads will roll, possibly literally, and rightly.
If it is true and the IC succeeds in removing a compromised administration, then they've done a masterful job in an extremely tricky and dangerous situation. Their job is well done, and the other branches will have to figure out how succession is to work. Could they do a round-robin with POTUS like the Nixon/Ford switcheroo? A Senate chosen replacement? Election do-over?
If it is true and the IC fails to take down the administration, what will the next few months look like? How would a Putin puppet in the Whitehouse play out? This may be the best question to explore right now, because it may end up being the only way we find out for sure.
Posted Feb 16, 2017, 10:45 PM UTC