[TINFOIL TIME WITH VOC] - Trying to achieve a Markov Proportional return of Currency using a Metronome

Over the years I have put a lot of thought into crafting in Path of Exile. Where I have been successful in crafting more efficiently, the basis of the majority of such thought, has been in trying to put myself in the perspective of a Programmer or Mathematician. I have been more than willing to spend thousands of chaos and hundreds of exalts testing different crazy ideas. Every now and then I learn something new. In this post I will describe a crafting methodology which I have found repeated success with, and I will attempt to explain why I think it works. To avoid many arguments… A. I will not attempt to PROVE anything in this post … and B. I fully admit that what I outline in this post could be crazy/wrong.

So… if you're still here… put on your Tinfoil hats and prepare to get WOKE.

The basis of this line of thought stems from my desire NOT to have a random outcome from the use of currency but to strive to obtain a non-random MARKOV PROPORTIONAL return of currency. Markov Chains are a concept in information theory, and MARKOV PROPORTIONAL returns are common amongst efficient programming of seemingly random pulls from databases (tables). The Kahn Academy has a great series of videos on this subject.

We have long known that currency utilization is an efficient server side pull. We know this because currency never desyncs, and currency can be spammed. So for this discussion let's assume GGG has a method of pulling affixes efficiently and repeatedly server side in under 15 Miliseconds. I am also going to assume that all seeding of the function is based on a server side clock.

There are a myriad of ways that GGG could actually have this programmed… and I am happy to debate them in the comments as it relates to this topic… but for the purpose of this post I am going to try to describe visually one likely scenario.

Again …. This is a visual description (so non programmers can understand) … NOT a functional description … bear with me.

So Imagine if you will a Roulette Wheel.

Let Us assume this Roulette wheel has thousands of ticks on it where a little ball could land.

Let Us assume that the number of evenly spaced ticks on the Roulette wheel are statistically proportional to the likelihood of the affixes of a Vaal Regalia as depicted on Poe.Db Let Us assume further that any set of Ticks for a specific affix is not contiguous but rather distributed/arrayed on the wheel.

Let Us then assume that the wheel spins / increments at a constant rate.

Now take this imaginary wheel and put 6 of them on the same AXIS.

Let Us assume then that the 6 wheels start at a random position but on the same AXIS for each instance.

Let Us assume that the incrementation of each wheel varies at a constant rate between 3 - 15 milliseconds constantly for each instance.

Let Us then assume three lasers shot along the AXIS of the wheel (GREEN RED BLUE)

Let Us assume GREEN shoots through 4 wheels, RED shoots through 5 wheels, and BLUE shoots through 6 wheels.

Let us assume that when a chaos or alchemy is used on a Vaal Regalia one of the lasers (chosen randomly) fires and each Tick on the Roulette wheel appears as the corresponding affix on the Vaal Regalia.

In this fashion a MARKOV PROPORTIONAL return is possible over a random return.

If you shoot the lasers (use currency) at a consistent rate… it is guaranteed (given the assumptions above) that you will shoot the entire rim of ticks off of the Green, then Red, then Blue wheels. This is true regardless of the rate of incrementation of the wheel OR the starting position of the set of wheels as long as the rate of shooting (currency use) is the same.

AGAIN, I AM NOT TRYING TO BE LUCKY, I JUST WANT TO GET A MARKOV PROPORTIONAL RETURN OVER A MATHEMATICALLY RANDOM RETURN.

So… again… and I admit it is another big leap here … but holding the above assumptions if you use Chaos into any system that applies affixes from tables that is efficient and timed on a constantly rotating basis based on the server clock, which rate of rotation and initial positioning is randomly generated for each new instance , it is arguable that you can still receive a MARKOV PROPORTIONAL RETURN.

So, I tried it.

I used a 120 BPM metronome on youtube that has bar counts

I Chaos’ed items at the end of every 8th beat and assessed the roll in between… and I had amazing results. I believe I am achieving a MARKOV PROPORTIONAL return with this method over a random return. I believe it is because of the inherent nature of the efficiency of the required speedy table pull server side.

I believe that we have implicitly seen this in player behavior (Spamming fuses to 6 Link or Corrupting items in batches) that has evolved naturally in the community.

So … I am sharing my success here… and would encourage you guys to test my tinfoil.

You have literally nothing to lose… this method does not consume any more or less currency than traditional methods of rolling items.

So.. if you're inclined give it a shot….

TL;DR (Using a Metronome to consistently time the utilization of currency while in the same instance can potentially return a Markov Proportional set of returns which is vastly more efficient than a RANDOM return of currency utilization when rolling multiple items (such as when crafting for ES meta return).