There was a comment chain that was discussing if early bye weeks affected teams chances of winning games, so I made a list of the past 20 SB winners and it was split even, half had late byes and half had early byes.

This is going to go more in depth.

2016

Week 4 byes: Green Bay and Philadelphia

Together they combined for a W-L of 17-15

53.125 Win % and 1 playoff team(50%)

Week 5 byes: Jacksonville, KC, New Orleans, and Seattle

Together the combined for a W-L of 32-32

50.000 Win% and 2 playoff teams(50%)

Week 6 byes: Minnesota and Tampa Bay

Together were 17-15

53.125 Win% and 0 playoff teams(0%)

Week 7 byes: Carolina and Dallas

Combined for a record of 19-13

59.375 Win% and 1 playoff team(50%) 

Week 8 byes: Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco

Combined for a record of 46-50

47.916 Win% and 3 playoff teams(50%)

Week 9 byes: Arizona, Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, New England, Washington

Together went 47-49

48.958 Win% and 2 playoff teams(33%)

Week 10 byes: Buffalo, Detroit, Indianapolis, Oakland

All together broke even at 16-16

50.000 Win% and 2 playoff teams(50%)

Week 11 byes: Atlanta, Denver, NY Jets, San Diego

Together went 30-34

46.875 Win % and 1 playoff team (25%)

Week 12 byes: Cleveland, Tennessee

Together combined for a whopping 10 wins and 22 losses

31.250 Win% and 0 playoff teams(0%)

2016	Weeks 4-7	Weeks 8-12
Win-Loss	85-75	149-203
Win%	53.125	42.329
Playoff teams	4 out of 10	8 out of 22
% teams to playoffs	40.000%	36.363%

So what this years data shows us is that later byes are actually at a disadvantage for both win% and % chance of making playoffs, but to get a larger sample size I'll look into earlier seasons

2015

Week 4 byes: Tennessee, New England

These 2 teams put together a combined 15-17 record

 46.875 Win % and 1 playoff team(50%)

Week 5 byes: Miami, Minnesota, NY Jets, Carolina

Together combined for a W-L of 42-22

65.625 Win% and 2 playoff teams(50%)

Week 6 byes: Dallas, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay

Combined for 24 wins and 40 losses

37.500 Win% and 0 playoff teams(0%)

Week 7 byes: Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Green Bay

Combined 40-24

62.500 Win% and 3 playoff teams(75%)

Week 8 byes: Buffalo, Philadelphia, Washington, Jacksonville

Together went 29-35

45.312 Win% and 1 playoff team(25%)

Week 9 byes: Detroit, Kansas City, Arizona, Seattle, Baltimore, Houston

Together went 55-41

57.291 Win% and 4 playoff teams(66%)

Week 10 byes: Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego, San Francisco

Together went 25-39

39.062 Win% and 0 playoff teams(0%)

Week 11 byes: Cleveland, New Orleans, NY Giants, Pittsburgh

Together went 26-38

40.625 Win% and 1 playoff team(25%)

2015	Weeks 4-7	Weeks 8-11
Win-Loss	121-103	135-153
Win%	54.017	46.875
Playoff teams	6 out of 14	6 out of 18
% teams to playoffs	42.825	33.333

So what this season shows is that the earlier weeks still have a higher win percent and have a higher likelihood of making playoffs, but again this might just be these seasons, so to make my sample size larger, I press on.

2014

Week 4 byes: Cardinals, Seahawks, Broncos, Rams, Bengals, Browns

Combined for 58 wins and 38 losses

60.415 Win% and 4 playoff teams(66%)

Week 5 byes: Raiders, Dolphins

Together went 11-21

34.375 Win% and 0 playoff teams(0%)

Week 6 byes: Chiefs, Saints

Together went 16-16

 50.000 Win% and 0 playoff teams(0%)

Week 7 byes: Eagles, Buccaneers

Together went 12-20

37.500 Win% and 0 playoff teams(0%)

Week 8 byes: Giants, 49ers

Together went 14-18

43.750 Win% and 0 playoff teams (0%)

Week 9 byes: Bears, Lions, Packers, Titans, Falcons, Bills

Together went 45-51

46.875% and 2 playoff teams(33%)

Week 10 byes: Patriots, Chargers, Redskins, Texans, Colts, Vikings

Together went 54-42

56.250 Win% and 2 playoff teams(33%)

Week 11 byes: Jaguars, Ravens, Cowboys, Jets

Together went 29-35

45.312 Win% and 2 playoff teams(50%)

Week 12 byes: Steelers, Panthers

Together went 18-14

56.250 Win% and 2 playoff teams(100%)

2014	Weeks 4-7	Weeks 8-12
Win-Loss	97-95	160-160
Win%	50.520	50.000
Playoff teams	4 of 12	8 of 20
% teams to playoffs	33.333%	40.000%

This again shows(barely) that the early weeks have a higher win %, but this time a lower playoff %, but not by much, now lets see what the data says when I add it all together.

Totals	Weeks 4-7	Weeks 8-12
Win-Loss	303-273	444-516
Win%	52.604%	46.250%
Playoff teams	14 of 36	22-60
% teams to playoffs	38.888%	36.666%

All added together it seems pretty even, besides the earlier byes having a slightly higher win rate, about the same percent of teams from early and late bye weeks make playoffs, and as I proved before this post Super Bowl winners are 50-50 in the past 20 years with early and late byes.

TL;DR: when your teams bye week is doesn't fuckin matter