Which first round picks are most successful in modern drafts. Hint: not the top 5.

My advice is for Cleveland, and all other top 5 teams is to look at this weird trend and trade back into the mid or late first round selections, getting far away from the top picks. Here’s why:

• The last player to be drafted first overall and win a Super Bowl for the team that drafted him is Peyton Manning in 1999. We’re going to focus on the drafts since that point (2000-2016.)

• Only two other first overall picks have won championships in that time, and both on the same team when David Carr was backing up Eli Manning in 2011.

• If you change your scope to top five picks, only 7 have won Super Bowls with Jamal Lewis (Ravens, 5th overall, 2000), Reggie Bush (Saints 2nd overall, 2006), AJ Hawk (Packers, 5th overall, 2006), and Von Miller (Broncos, 2nd overall, 2011),winning it with the team that drafted them while Chris Long (Rams 2nd overall, 2008) joined Eli and Carr last year as guys doing it with different franchises. That’s 7 out of a possible 80 players or 43.75% of top five picks who have won and only 4 actually helping the team that took them.

With two 1st overalls, three 2nd overalls and two 5th overalls making up that list, what about the rest of the draft? Here are some are some picks in the first round that have had more success since 1999, spoiler: most of them come later in the first day:

6th overall, 4: Torry Holt, Richard Seymour, Vernon Davis (while with the Broncos), Russell Okung.

10th overall, 4: Chris McCallister, Travis Taylor, Terrell Suggs, Jerod Mayo. (**The first three were all drafted by Baltimore so maybe there’s something lucky about the Ravens picking at 10th overall.)

14th overall, 4: Jeremy Shockey, Darrell Revis, Malcolm Jenkins, Earl Thomas.

15th overall, 5: Anthony McFarland, Michael Clayton (while with the Giants), Lawrence Timmons, Jason Pierre-Paul, Bruce Irvin. (Irvin is also the only top 15 pick to win a championship in the last 5 years.)

23rd overall, 5: Deuce McCallister, Rashard Mendenhall, Michael Oher, Bryan Bulaga, Shane Ray.

25th overall, 5: Charles Grant, William Joseph, Santonio Holmes, James Carpenter, Dont’a Hightower.

29th overall, 5: Ryan Pickett (while with the Packers), Nick Barnett, Marlin Jackson, Hakeem Nicks, Dominique Easley.

30th overall, 4: Reggie Wayne, Kendall Simmons, Heath Miller, Joseph Addai.

Obviously this is an imperfect way to look at the draft, there are other factors, but a strategy shift is needed. The reason early picks haven’t worked out very often, is related money, desperation, or both.

Early picks cost a lot more money, and not only with their first deal but the subsequent ones as well. That means they’re taking up capital that could have been used to fill other holes on the roster, making it hard to attract new talent and hold onto the players as well.

In terms of desperation, teams at the top of the draft are usually the ones who struggled the prior year which leaves them searching for a prospect who will turn their whole franchise around. Meanwhile, the guys at the back of the round are taking the consistent contributors who fit into what they’re already doing.

The trick is for the GMs not to fall in love with the athletes who test well and declare for the draft early so as to maximize their hype (ahem, Mitchell Trubisky,) or the guys you have to change your scheme for (looking at you Jabrill Peppers, or even Myles Garrett.)

With the insane amount of scrutiny the scouting departments use when looking at prospects, maybe they should take it a step further selecting the safe guy over the boom-or-bust one.