My 2017 Carolina Draft Guide

With the draft only a day away, the community here on r/panthers is all in a buzz about who we’re going to draft. The focus is clearly on the first round, as it always is, but I’m also interested in who we’ll be taking later on.

As always, there’s a lot of speculating, but I’ve followed Gettleman’s career closely and I say with no small measure of gloating that I’ve correctly predicted Gettleman’s first round pick every year since he’s arrived here.

Don’t misunderstand; it’s not supernatural. There are a few quirks to the man’s process that make his hand fairly easy to read if you know what you’re looking for.

#The Carolina Way

The following are, in my estimation, the central tenants to the Gettleman Panthers’ draft approach.

We extensively work out prospects we’re interested in: The common theme between Shaq Thompson, Vernon Butler, Star and Benji is that we worked them out at least twice prior to their selection, and all of them had private visits with us. It’s also true for prospects like James Bradberry, Daryl Worley and Zach Sanchez, all of whom we had extensive visitation with prior to their selection. I think this speaks to our GM’s meticulous, cautious nature. You can find more detail about how our pre-draft visits impact our selections here, and a full list of our pre-draft visits here. These are the two primary lists I’m working as I try to construct what, in my opinion, represents the Panthers’ big board.

We’re not shy about who we like: When it comes to dealing with the media, Gettleman is much like Belichick in a number of ways; he openly antagonizes them when they say something stupid, and he loves talking football with them. He seems to enjoy discussing his process, and as a result, the players he’s got his eye on. Much of the media world seemed stunned when we took both Butler and Thompson, but I had called the picks about two weeks out. The main reason I could see those picks coming? He wouldn’t shut up about them. He similarly bandied about Kony Ealy leading up to the 2014 draft, so much so that I really thought our first round pick was a two way race between him and Benji. If Gettleman’s really into a player, there are pretty decent odds he’s run his mouth off about him at some point. There are a lot of GMs who blow a lot of smoke, but generally speaking, if Gettleman talks about a guy, it’s because he genuinely likes him.

We pick needs: Gettleman has developed a reputation for ruthlessly adhering to a BPA approach, but I think the reality is more nuanced than that. In 2014, he double dipped at DT when it was beyond a shadow of a doubt the weakest position on the roster. In 2014, WR was the runt of the litter, and it would be very difficult to argue that Kelvin Benjamin was the best player on the board. And while we did draft a DT in round 1 of 2016, it’s worth noting that we spent the three picks that followed replacing our CB core that lacked a single starter from the previous season. So I think the notion that Gettleman exclusively drafts BPA is highly overstated. Now, having said that…

We don’t reach: The biggest need on our roster for years now has been offensive tackle. Yet we haven’t selected one higher than round 3 since Gettleman got here because there simply hasn’t been one worth selecting at our draft spot. Likewise, while the biggest need going into the 2016 draft was defensive back, we opted to fill the hole in rounds 2, 3 and 4 rather than 1 because the value wasn’t there. I contend that Gettleman balances need with BPA as opposed to how he’s often portrayed, but I’d never accuse him of reaching to fill a need.

We like big men: There are a lot of narratives about Gettleman that I think are unfair. He’s often accused of not addressing the OL when he’s responsible for four of our starters being here. He only drafts DTs even though he’s taken more corners and as many LBs during his tenure. And I’ve already addressed the conception of him as a BPA purist. But one reputation he has justly earned is his obsession with the hog molly. We like our receivers 6’4 plus. Our corners 6’2 plus. Our linemen huge and long armed. In front of the media, he talks about measurables the way Rex Ryan probably talks about feet. He’s been vocal about his theory that big men win football games, and it’s a constant in both his FA pickups and his drafting. If there’s one serious criticism I lay at our GM’s feet, it’s that he often seems more interested in height and weight than talent or finesse, and it shows in some of his more questionable draft picks (Lookin’ at you, Funchess)

We’re willing to trade up, but we don’t trade down: Contrary to the smart policy many statisticians have argued for about the NFL draft, the Panthers under Gettleman seem very willing to move up for players they like, but almost never down to acquire more picks. The reasoning for this is twofold. First, our GM likes the roster and doesn’t feel a need to add more than 4 or 5 rookies from each class. Second, he gets bil ol’ crushes on the guys he likes and often feels a need to move up for them.

Character matters to us: I don’t think we only draft angels. But Gettleman has been vocal about his distaste for players with character concerns and the way that impacts their availability. With the exception of Daryl Worley, almost all of our draft picks have been squeaky clean. So you can basically scratch the Joe Mixons and Dalvin Cooks off the board for us. Finally...

We don’t value late round picks: Whether it’s trading a 4th for a punter, trading away much of our late round to move up in the second for Devin Funchess, or trading Ealy to move from the 3rd into the 2nd, I think Gettleman has shown a real disregard for any pick outside the 3rd round. In my opinion, he views these picks as expendable; more trade munition than player capital. By the end of the third, we’ve generally snagged everyone we’re going to, and when you look up and down our vetting list, there is a palpable lack of visits and research we do on players projected into the later rounds.

#What does it mean?

So between those pillars of our draft philosophy and the list of who we’ve shown interest in, I think I can draw the following conclusions about our upcoming draft class and what we’re planning to do in order to acquire it.

The first pick is a RB: This one isn’t very bold, but I base it on two things; we love Fournette and McCaffery and we don’t seem to love much of anyone else. We’ve talked about and courted the two top prospect in this draft extensively and both the coaching staff and the scouts have been vocal about finding the future of the position in this class. But for a team that’s talked constantly about upgrading our run game, we haven’t done much research on the actual runners. Guys like Foreman, Cook, Hill and Mixon, who I think are all good fits in our offense, haven’t gotten so much as a pro day look from us. Only Alvin Kamara has gotten a serious look outside the top two. On top of that, other than Solomon Thomas and Jamal Adams (more on that one later), we haven’t really done extensive work with any of the picks that are projected around that #8 spot. To me, all these signs point to Fournette as the plan and McCaffery as the backup.

Corner isn’t a priority: Gettleman made it very clear last year that he was drafting the secondary of the future, and he seems to mean it because we have shown practically zero interest in the cornerback position. Despite a lot of (uninformed) people arguing that corner is the weakest spot on our roster, and Carolina Huddle’s weird insistence that Gareon Conley is at the top of our board (we didn’t so much as attend his pro day), the only CB we’ve used a private visit on or worked out more than once is Teez Tabor. With the way his stock is tumbling, don’t be surprised if Teez ends up with us, but I’m not seeing a high pick on corner this year.

We’re interested in WR, but not with a high pick: All totaled we’ve shopped about 16 WRs. Most of those are pro day glances, and only two of them we’ve held private visits with are top prospects (Curtis Samuel and Zay Jones). It’s a need I expect us to address, but not until day 3.

We want a safety but we’re not interested in a late rounder: Of all the positions in this draft, Safety is the most intriguing. There are three trends to note here with the players we’re interested in: we’ve worked them out very extensively, they’re all top rated prospects and they’re all strong safeties. There are no two players we’ve shown more interest in than Jamal Adams and Obi Melifonwu, who we’ve met with 3 and 4 times respectively. And we’ve also done considerable work with Josh Jones. Outside of that? We’ve done practically nothing to scout the position. We want one of those three guys, and we want them bad. If Melfonwu is there at 40, I’m convinced he’s the pick. Otherwise, expect Josh Jones at some point.

Edge rush is going to get at least one and possibly two picks: Apart from WR, no position has been vetted as thoroughly as DE. We’ve worked out 15 prospects at the position, and 6 of our 30 private visits fall squarely in the DE category. And unlike safety, we’re not just working out the top prospects. We’ve done extensive scouting of players projected as early as the first and as late as 4th round, with a concentration on guys projected for round 2. I would keep a particularly close eye on Jordan Willis, Tanoh Kpassagnon and Demarcus Walker as players we could see donning the Carolina hats by the end of day 2. I would not be at all surprised to see DE as our back to back picks either in round 2, or our late 2nd rounder and comp pick. If for some reason neither McCaffery or Fournette are available at 8, I think Solomon Thomas or Barnett becomes our first rounder.

Tight End is more luxury than priority: Upgrading the offense is important to the FO in this draft, and TE is one of the top places they aim to do it. But ultimately, I don’t think this is as high a priority as many draft experts seem to believe. Howard has gotten some cursory work, but wasn’t one of our 30 visits and only had a single private workout with us. I don’t see him being in the cards for us. We did a lot of tire kicking on David Njoku, and I’m sure he’s in the mix for us at 40 if he’s available, but he almost certainly won’t be. Evan Ingram is definitely on our radar, but I think defensive players and OL (more on that in a minute) are higher priorities.

Finally

Offensive Tackle is very much a target: We have worked out a ton of offensive tackles, and I believe the thinking of our FO is that A) the position needs an upgrade and B) day 2 is the time to do it. We’ve worked out a handful of borderline 1st/2nd round guys. Cam Robinson is very much in the mix for us at 40, and I would consider Dion Dawkins as a favorite for pick 64, depending on who we choose with 40. Other names to watch are David Sharpe from Florida and my personal favorite UDFA signing, Mason Zandi.

So, all that out of the way, here's how I see the draft panning out.

#Who We Pick

Round 1, Pick 8: Leonard Fournette (RB, LSU)/Christian McCaffery (RB, Stanford) - As I said earlier, I'd be absolutely shocked if we don't pick one of the two here. If Fournette's off the board, we take McCaffery. I don't see a trade up happening with the amount of love we've showered on CMC.

Round 2, Pick 40: Cam Robinson (OT, Alabama), David Njoku (TE, Miami), Obi Melifonwu (SS, UCONN), Jordan Willis (DE, Kansas), Garett Bolles (OT, Utah) Josh Jones (SS, NC State) Tarrell Bashman (DE, Ohio) - Don't be a bit surprised if we're taking our second selection in the back half of the first round. A tradeup for any of the first three prospects I list here would not be shocking in the least. That said, I think we hold pat. There are enough prospects that we're high on here that one of them should fall to us. That would free us up to pursue one of our other targets in the back half of the round.

Obviously, Jones and Obi would be massive upgrades to strong safety, and they both fit the mold of ballhawking, super athletic types that Gettleman covets. They have the ability to drop into coverage, hit hard in the box and the speed to rush around the edge for a sack. Bolles and Robinson would provide immediate RT upgrades in the event Oher can't play again and would prove solid prospects that we could train for the future. Bashman and Willis are great edge prospects who represent day 1 rotational prospects potential on a team whose average DE is 42 years old.

Round 2, Second pick: Zay Jones, (WR, East Carolina) Chris Wormley (DE, Michigan), Derek Rivers (DE, Youngstown State), Demarcus Walker (DE, FSU), Taylor Moton (OT, Western Michigan), Evan Ingram, (TE, Ole Miss), Alvin Kamara, (RB, Tennessee) - If some of these picks seems fanciful at 64, it's because I seriously doubt we'll be picking there when the time comes. I think the entire purpose of swapping picks with New England was to position ourselves for an easier move in the 2nd using late rounders as trade munition. This is where the bulk of our interest in prospects is, and in terms of our interests vs. projections, our scouting gets remarkably thin after this crop of players.

Ingram is the fallback TE if Njoku doesn't make it to 40. There are a couple OT prospects that we could take a shot on here, but I think that Moton or one of the others I listed in the previous segment would be the target. There are numerous DE prospects I could see landing here. Zay Jones is an interesting dark horse if we're able to move into the upper or middle half of round 2. Ultimately I don't think he brings enough to the table to warrant the selection and we'll pass on him.

Round 3rd/4th: Tanoh Kpassagnon (DE, Villanova), David Sharpe, (OT, Florida), Julien Davenport (OT, Bucknell), Teez Tabor, (CB, Florida) - This is where the crowd starts to seriously thin out. I have no idea where we'll be picking here, but these are some players in that range. Tanoh is a Gettleman player if I've ever seen one; arguably too big for his own good and more physical specimen than football technician. Couple of promising OT prospects here that we could mold into projects. Tabor is an interesting one to watch, because we're clearly interested, and we may be one of the only teams who is. Tabor was projected as a first rounder, but his 40 times and strength numbers at the Combine and his Pro Day have absolutely tanked his stock. Wouldn't be surprised to see him fall into this range.

5th-7th Rounders and fliers: Tanner Vallejo, (LB, Boise State), Kyle Kallis, (OG, Michigan), Jehu Chesson, (WR, Michigan), Fred Ross, (WR, Mississippi State), Carlos Henderson, (WR, Louisiana Tech) Austin Duke, (WR, Charlotte), Kendrick Borne, (WR, Eastern Washington), Tre'Davious White (CB, LSU), Channing Stribling, (CB, Michigan), Cethan Carter, (TE, Nebraska), Sam Tevi (OT, Utah), Mason Zandi, (OT, Colombia)

Big list here, so let's break it down one position at a time.

This is where we're doing most of our WR homework. You can basically divide these cats into two categories. Duke and Henderson round out the "Short fast guys who may or may not amount to anything" while the rest fall squarely into the "Tall slow guys of whom we already roster about 50 clones of".

Vallejo is a promising LB whose stock is tanked because he was injured all last year. He's got a lot of the skills we covet in a LB including coverage ability, and it would be just like Dave to spend at least one pick on a position group we're totally stacked at.

Lots of corners in this group. Most of them fit the typical Panthers most of being big and slow but good with ball skills. I'm guessing our interest in them is largely for depth purposes, but it is interesting how many of these guys have had private visits with us. Wouldn't be surprised to see some late round shelf stocking at the position.

Zandi and Tevi are two OTs with massive physical frames and perfect OT hips and feet, but enough wild inconsistency at the college level. They'll be available late or in FA and I'd be shocked if we didn't take a shot on at least one of them. Gettleman do love him some hog molly.

Kyle Kalis is a priority free agent guard with a lot of similarities to Norwell. Very good technique and size, but there are questions about his competition level. I think we'll try to grab him as an insurance policy against one of either Norwell or Turner leaving. I kind of hope we spend a late rounder on this guy.

Cethan Carter is a pure blocking TE. Not much of a receiving threat but could be a nice addition to our run/pass blocking.

That's all folks. Those are the players I think we're really serious about in this draft. I know I kinda glossed over a lot of them, so if you have questions about any specific prospects, let me know in the comments. And remember; I don't know dick about college football. All I know is from draft reports.

I apologize in advance for my atrocious editing.