[OC] 2017 Record Watch- Part I: Passing Yards

On Sundays during the offseason, I have Lost Leagues, a series about football leagues that failed. But I want to run other series alongside that. That leads me to this series, which I'll call "Record Watch."

The premise is simple- any records that could realistically be broken in 2017 are in this post. I'm not talking about single-season records, but rather, career records. Each post will be divided up into 2 parts. The first part will be NFL records and climbing up the league-wide ranks. The second part will be team-specific records and climbing up the team-wide ranks.

Each week, I'll focus on a different stat. Today, it's all about passing yards, both on the league-wide level and the team specific level.

Part I: NFL Records

• Eli Manning currently sits in 8th place on the all-time passing yards list (48,218). He needs 1,108 yards to pass Warren Moon and take 7th place on the list (49,325). He needs 1,782 yards to become just the 7th quarterback in NFL history to reach 50,000 career passing yards, and needs 3,258 yards to pass John Elway and take 6th place on the all-time list (51,475)

• Ben Roethlisberger currently sits in 10th place on the all-time passing yards list (46,814). He needs just 190 yards to pass Fran Tarkenton and take 9th place on the list (47,003). He needs 2,512 to pass Warren Moon, 3,186 yards to reach the 50,000 career passing yards mark, and needs 4,662 yards to pass John Elway on the all-time list. While unlikely, it’s not impossible; in 2014, Roethlisberger threw for 4,952 yards, however this was the only time he ever threw more than 4,500 yards in a season.

• Philip Rivers currently sits in 12th place on the all-time passing yards list (45,833). He needs 401 yards to pass Vinny Testaverde and take 11th place on the list (46,233), needs 1,171 yards to pass Fran Tarkenton on the list, needs 3,493 yards to pass Warren Moon, and needs 4,167 yards to reach the 50,000 career passing yards mark

• Carson Palmer currently sits in 14th place on the all-time passing yards list (44,269). He needs 343 yards to pass Drew Bledsoe and take 13th place on the list (44,611), needs 1,965 yards to pass Vinny Testaverde, needs 2,735 yards to pass Fran Tarkenton, and needs 5,057 yards to pass Warren Moon. Palmer has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 4 of the last 5 seasons, but has never thrown more than 4,700 yards in a season, so the odds that he reaches Moon this year are unlikely

• Very quietly, Matt Ryan is climbing up lists. He’s currently 21st on the all-time passing yards list (37,701). He needs just 220 yards to pass Boomer Esiason and reach the top 20 (37,920). That’s not the only attainable mark for him. He needs 447 yards to pass Dave Krieg for 19th place (38,147), and needs 2,299 yards to become the 19th quarterback in NFL history to throw for 40,000 yards. Once he reaches that, he needs 2,539 yards to pass Johnny Unitas for 18th place (40,239), 2,851 yards to pass Joe Montana for 17th place (40,551), and 3,222 yards to pass Kerry Collins for 16th place (40,922). Not out of the realm of possibility: a 5,440-yard season would pass Dan Fouts and would have Ryan enter the top 15 all-time in passing yards (43,040). Ryan has thrown for at least 4,500 yards in every season since 2012.

• Aaron Rodgers currently sits in 23rd place on the all-time passing yards list (36,827). He needs 450 yards to pass Donovan McNabb for 22nd place (37,276). From there, he needs 1,094 yards to pass Boomer Esiason on the list, 1,321 yards to pass Dave Krieg, and 3,173 yards to reach the 40,000-yard mark. Rodgers needs 3,413 yards to pass Johnny Unitas, 3,725 yards to pass Joe Montana, and 4,096 yards to pass Kerry Collins.

• Joe Flacco currently sits in 36th place on the all-time passing yards list (32,639). By the end of the season, he has a chance to enter the top 25 all-time. Jim Kelly currently sits in 25th place (35,467). Flacco needs to throw just 2,829 yards to enter the top-25. Realistically, he could be in 24th place by the time the season ends, as a 4,000-yard season will put him in 24th place all-time, surpassing Matt Hasselbeck (36,638). In terms of the other QBs he could pass along the way:

• Alex Smith is 2,155 yards away from reaching 30,000 career passing yards. This would make him one of just 45 quarterbacks in league history to reach this mark

• As it stands, there are 71 quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for at least 25,000 passing yards. By the end of the season, there could be 73, as Andy Dalton and Cam Newton are approaching that mark. Dalton is 2,786 yards away from reaching the 25,000 milestone (currently sits at 22,214), while Newton is 3,228 yards away (currently sits at 21,772)

• There are 106 quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for at least 20,000 passing yards. Andrew Luck (19,078) is 922 yards away from reaching that milestone, while Ryan Tannehill (18,455) is 1,545 yards away, and Russell Wilson (18,193) is 1,807 yards away. Those are the QBs from the 2012 class about to reach the 20,000-mark; however, there’s one more that will likely do it in 2017, and that is Sam Bradford. He currently sits at 18,667 yards, needing 1,333 yards to reach the 20,000-yard mark

• There are 142 quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for at least 15,000 passing yards. Josh McCown might reach that depending on who starts in the Jets QB carousel. He currently sits at 14,242 yards, and needs 758 yards to reach the 15,000-yard mark. Kirk Cousins (12,113) needs 2,887 yards to reach that, while Blake Bortles (11,241) needs 3,759 yards, and Derek Carr (11,194) needs 3,806 yards. If Kaepernick makes his way onto a roster, he needs 2,729 yards to do it (12,271)

Part II: Team-Specific Records

• In Buffalo, Tyrod Taylor is one of 9 quarterbacks in franchise history with at least 6,000 passing yards (6,058). He needs 154 yards to pass JP Losman and take 8th place on the list (6,211), and needs 229 yards to pass Dennis Shaw and take 7th place (6,286). That could be accomplished by week 1. Later on in the season, he needs 1,525 yards to pass Doug Flutie and take 6th place (7,582), and needs 4,094 yards to pass Drew Bledsoe and take 5th place (10,151). Taylor has never thrown for more than 3,100 yards in a season, so while this is unlikely, he should have at least 6th place by the end of the season

• While Deshaun Watson will likely be the starter in Houston, Tom Savage (588 yards) is just 295 yards away from entering the top 10 in franchise history, passing Tony Banks (882). For Watson, if he throws for 2,958 yards, he will already be the fourth greatest quarterback by yardage in franchise history, only behind Schaub, Carr, and Rosenfels.

• Blake Bortles needs 4,763 yards to take 2nd place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Jaguars. He currently sits in 3rd at 11,241 yards, while David Garrard sits in 2nd place at 16,003 yards. While this is unlikely (Bortles’ record is 4,428 yards, set back in 2015), he does already own the franchise record for most passing yards in a season

• Marcus Mariota currently sits in 7th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Titans (6,244), and is one of 7 quarterbacks to throw for at least 6,000 yards. By the end of the season, he’s likely going to be in the top 5. He needs 561 yards to pass Kerry Collins for 6th on the list (6,804), and needs 1,855 yards to pass Vince Young for 5th on the list (8,098). However, he still has a long way to go to reach 4th place; Dan Pastorini threw for 16,864 yards when he played for the Oilers from 1971-79

• It’s not attainable this year, but if it eventually happens, it might be one of my favorite stats of all-time. Joe Flacco currently has 32,639 passing yards, which is, by far, the most in franchise history for the Ravens (second place is Kyle Boller at 7,846). Every other QB in Ravens’ history has combined for 41,859 passing yards. By the time Flacco’s career is done, even if the stat is short-lived, he could have more passing yards than every other QB in franchise history combined

• Andy Dalton currently sits in 4th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Bengals (22,214). He needs just 481 yards to surpass Carson Palmer (22,694) and take 3rd place on the franchise history list, and needs 4,936 yards to pass Boomer Esiason (27,149) and take 2nd place on the franchise history list, which would only sit behind Ken Anderson. Don’t count on that, though- the most yards Dalton has thrown for in a season was 4,293 back in 2013, so the odds that he takes 2nd place this year are unlikely.

• Trevor Siemian currently sits in 14th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Broncos (3,401). By the time the season is done, he could be in 8th place already after just two seasons as the starter. Ahead of him:

• Alex Smith currently sits in 4th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Chiefs (13,566). He needs 3,712 yards to pass Bill Kenney (17,277) for 3rd place on the franchise history list.

• Derek Carr currently sits in 7th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Raiders (11,194). He’s got a real chance to move up the leaderboards this season. He needs 442 yards to pass Tom Flores (11,635) for 6th place, needs 567 yards to pass Marc Wilson (11,760) for 5th place, needs 1,472 yards to pass Jim Plunkett (12,665) for 4th place, and in a bit of a longshot, needs 5,462 yards to pass Daryle Lamonica (16,655) for 3rd place. However, the record in franchise history, held by Ken Stabler, is just 19,078 yards, so in terms of yardage, there’s a real chance that by 2018, Carr is the best quarterback in franchise history

• Dak Prescott currently sits in 11th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Cowboys (3,667). He needs just 1,137 yards to enter the top 10 and pass Drew Bledsoe (4,803) for 10th place. Prescott needs 1,665 yards to pass Eddie LeBaron (5,331) for 9th place, 2,173 yards to pass Quincy Carter (5,839) for 8th place, and 2,889 yards to pass Steve Pelluer (6,555) for 7th place.

• Carson Wentz threw for 3,782 yards for Philadelphia last season. This year, he’s got a real chance to enter the top 10 in franchise history on the passing yards list. He needs 3,430 yards to do it and pass Roman Gabriel (7,221) for 10th place all-time in franchise history. He needs 3,716 yards to pass Norm Van Brocklin (7,497) for 9th place, and needs 4,343 yards to pass Bobby Thomason (8,124) for 8th place

• By the end of the season, Kirk Cousins has a chance to be one of the four greatest quarterbacks by yards in Washington history. He currently sits in 6th place (12,113) on the list, and needs 240 yards to pass Billy Kilmer (12,352) for 5th place and enter the top 5. Mark Rypien is in striking distance this season; Cousins needs 3,816 yards to pass Rypien (15,928) and take 4th place on the all-time list in franchise history

• Three of the four quarterbacks in the NFC South already lead their teams in all-time passing yards. Jameis Winston is the only one who does not, but he’s climbing up the leaderboard. He sits in 7th place right now (8,132) in Bucs history, and needs 1,308 yards to pass Steve DeBerg (9,439) and take 6th place on the all-time list. By throwing for 1,868 yards, Winston will become the 6th quarterback in franchise history to throw for 10,000 yards in his career with the team. Winston needs 2,809 yards to pass Brad Johnson (10,940) for 5th place on the list, needs 4,517 yards to pass Doug Williams (12,648) for 4th place, and needs 4,838 yards to pass Trent Dilfer (12,969) for 3rd place. While he should definitely enter the top 5 this season, by the time his rookie contract is up, he might be the best quarterback in franchise history. The record is 14,820 yards, held by Vinny Testaverde when he played from 1987-1992. There’s no reason why Winston can’t surpass that number by the end of 2018.

• It won’t be easy for Trubisky to replace Jay Cutler in Chicago. Despite a rather controversial tenure with the Bears, Cutler leaves Chicago as the all-time leader in passing yards (23,443). Quite frankly, it’s not even close- the next best in terms of yards was Sid Luckman, who was 8,757 yards behind him at 14,686 yards.

• Matthew Stafford is already the all-time leader in yards in Detroit (30,303). However, if he gets 1,117 yards this season, then he will have doubled second place. Second place right now is Bobby Layne, who threw for 15,710 yards. If Stafford throws for 1,117 yards, then he will have double the number of passing yards as second place in franchise history. Keep in mind that the Lions have been around since 1929, when they were known as the Portsmouth Spartans

• If Bradford starts the full season this year for the Vikings, he’s got a chance to climb all the way up to 7th place in franchise history on the leaderboard. He currently sits in 14th place right now at 3,877 yards. To reach the top 10, he needs 2,274 yards to pass the injured Teddy Bridgewater (6,150). After that, he needs 2,581 yards to pass Rich Gannon (6,457) for 9th place, needs 2,782 yards to pass Christian Ponder (6,658) for 8th place, and needs 2,835 yards to pass Brett Favre (6,711) for 7th place

• Carson Palmer is currently in 6th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Cardinals (14,804). He needs just 125 yards to pass Charley Johnson (14,928) and reach the top 5. Palmer needs 1,040 yards to pass Kurt Warner (15,843) for 4th place, and needs 2,819 yards to pass Jake Plummer (17,622) for 3rd place. If he’s in 3rd place, then only two quarterbacks would be ahead of him- Jim Hart and Neil Lomax

• And finally, Russell Wilson is currently in 4th place in franchise history on the all-time passing yards list for the Seahawks (18,193). He needs 1,807 yards to become just the fourth quarterback in franchise history to reach the 20,000-yard mark; he’s already one of just 4 quarterbacks to reach the 10,000-yard mark for the Seahawks. Wilson needs 1,930 yards to pass Jim Zorn (20,122) for 3rd place.