2017 Entry Draft: Overagers Worth a Look
Players post-draft year are often evaluated on a very different scale from first year eligibles, despite mountains of evidence to suggest that if a nineteen year-old is putting up some very strong numbers, he's almost always a safer bet than the player who isn't producing but who is eighteen. Meanwhile, players like Andrew Shaw, Brendan Gallagher, Viktor Arvidsson, Brandon Montour, Tanner Pearson, Shayne Gostisbehere, Colton Parayko, Ondrej Palat, and Josh Manson (among others) were all drafted as overagers, and only one of them was drafted before the third round (Tanner Pearson) -- implying that you can often find very good value for your pick by selecting players that would've gone higher in the draft if they'd put up comparable numbers in their actual draft year.
Last season we saw the blossoming of a trend that had started years earlier in the NHL entry draft: properly evaluating overagers. 50 players older than 18 were drafted last season, from Henrik Borgstrom in the first round to thirteen different players in the seventh, including the Flames Belarusian giant Stepan Falkovsky.
With that in mind, I'd like to look at some draft-eligible players worth a look this year. That means they must be a player drafted out of the CHL who is younger than 21 before September 15 of this season (i.e. Jan 1, 1997 or younger), or a player drafted anywhere else who is younger than 22 before that date (i.e. Jan 1, 1996 or younger) -- this means any of the players you guys might remember from my free agent post aren't eligible: no Chad Butcher, no Alexis D'Aoust, no Darren Raddysh, no Tyler Wong. If you feel there's a name missing, make sure he's actually eligible first, please.
With that out of the way, here's my thoughts:
Vladimir Kuznetsov is a physically mature (215lbs) power forward who currently plays for the Acadie-Bathurst Titan. Last season weak skating held him back from being drafted, but there was no questioning the skill/size package this guy brought. This season, he not only improved his overall game, he also went from a weak to an average skater, and with evidence that he can improve his technique we might see a team take a chance.
Morgan Geekie of the Tri-City Americans entered last year's draft as one of the younger draft eligible players for 2016, a member of the group that manages to not only spend the entire draft season as seventeen year olds, but also most of the offseason as well. His statline was incredibly pedestrian and his play was as well, so it's no surprise that he was passed on. A year later, his eighteen year old season has been excellent and the 6'2 RW is tied for ninth in WHL scoring (with, among others, a little player named Matthew Phillips).
Because of his age, I wouldn't be surprised to see Geekie drafted in the first round, and I'd be amazed if he lasts three -- I believe at least one scouting department will be able to convince a GM that he's basically a first time eligible player.
Patrick Bajkov is an excellent passer with good mobility and good hockey IQ, and a huge part of Everett's scoring. I believe he got passed over last season because he needs to pick his spots to shoot better (he'd often have plays die with the puck on his stick because he was looking for the perfect pass), but he's a solid prospect and deserved a late round pick in 2016. With his offense taking a step up this season and a solid all around game, nothing about that analysis has changed.
Tyler Steenbergen of the Swift Current Broncos was one of two players in the WHL this season who scored more than 50 goals (both him and Tyler Wong had 51). He also finished ninth in WHL scoring, tied with Phillips and Geekie. Last season might've slipped under the radar as Swift Current's coach was known for a suppressive, defensive system, and Steenbergen's thrived in a run and gun one. Unsurprisingly, leading the WHL in goals is an easy way to get noticed, and Steenbergen's got the offensive potential to do well in a league where offense is at a premium.
Igor Shvyryov, who I'd love to nickname "Shiver", has a very hard name to spell. He's also an immensely skilled player who needs to work on his defensive game, so he's very much your 'typical Russian forward' in that sense. Absolutely destroyed the MHL (the CHL of the KHL) this season for Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk, but the KHL is a league that relies heavily on veterans so he didn't get much time to prove himself there.
Maxime Fortier is a player that I wanted the Flames to draft last year, where his 31 goal, 77 point season put him 30th in the entire QMJHL in points per game. This year, his 32 goal, 85 point season puts him 17th. A speedy offensive threat who also led the Q in short-handed goals this season, so he's trusted defensively as well.
Brayden Burke is a guy who's familiar to those of us who follow training camp invitees. An undersized playmaker, Burke's statline is unreal, with 1.43 points per game in the last two WHL seasons (and 191 points), although at this point, I wonder if he'll just be allowed to pass through a third draft and signed.
Kristians Rubins, sponsored by u/lastlatvian, played last season in the SuperElit (the Swedish CHL), where he was decent but not amazing as a defensive defenseman. This season he's come to the WHL, where he's had a bit of a resurgence, headmanning the breakout and playing very well down low and in the crease, using his size and body well to win battles -- and with 24 points, it's not like he's just a refrigerator on skates. A little bit of a project pick, but he'd be a better seventh rounder than Riley Bruce.
Ivan Kosorenkov is an incredible raw talent who needs to work on decision making and play away from the puck. Skates well, shoots well, dekes well, but has trouble finding open ice to recieve passes and is prone to defensive miscues. He's a project, but if he works out, Kosorenkov's got serious upside.
Alexander Polunin is a small scoring winger who turns 20 in about two weeks and has two KHL seasons behind him. Much like Kosorenkov, he's got a high skill level and amazing raw talent, but hasn't really become a true star yet. At this point he looks like he might be a Yakupov-type of player compared to a Panarin-type of player, but there's still the potential that he has some sort of hockey IQ epiphany -- and he's producing .5ppg in the KHL, so it's not like he'd be a terrible contributor at the NHL level.
Thomas Gregoire is another Geekie, young enough to slip into last year's draft even though he spent the entire year and most of the off-season as a seventeen year old. With another year of physical maturity, he's absolutely exploded as a point per game defenseman in the QMJHL (third highest scoring defenseman, after Samuel Girard and Carl Niell) with room to grow and great passing instincts.
Honourable Mentions: Andrei Altybarmakyan, Dominik Lakatos, Denis Smirnov, Tim Soderlund, Linus Weissbach
Posted May 11, 2017, 6:49 PM UTC · edited