Source
r/SoccerBetting•
Compiler_G

About *THAT* fixed Brazil U19s Match

Okay, so after that blessing of a match in brazil youth yesterday, i got quite a few messages asking me how i was able to find that out and how i bet in general.

 

here's the thing, when i started betting on football matches, i was the type of punter who follows my own analysis based on what i know and what i see on the league table. i check the price and if it's appealing to me, i back it. maybe a few of you do the same. i call that phase of mine in this life of punting - Fundamental Analysis Phase Now, was it profitable? sometimes. but more often than not, i lost (quite a lot of) money.

 

by accepting defeat to these bookmakers, i've accepted the fact that Fundamental Analysis isn't enough when it comes to betting. i didn't give up though, but i switched to betfair - and that's where everything changed.

 

Since betfair's setup is a free for all type and considering i was shit at betting, i've always reminded myself that there is always someone out there who knows something about a specific match. there will always be someone who will put his mortgage on a ukranian u21 match because he knows something the person laying the bet doesn't know about.

With the help of betfair's Market Activity button, i was able to see how much money was going into a selection and it's price history. With that bit of information, my betting style changed drastically. i ditched my fundamental analysis and switched to a technical type of analysis when betting. i followed where the money is being piled on.

 

So with this, me and a couple of friends decided to make something that is similar to betfair's market activity tab in the sense that it gives us a price and volume history that tracked where the money is going on a match in the last 36 hours (early bets) and in the last 60mins (recent bets).

 

however, not every move is reliable. so we then set a loss amount which ranges from 30k-200k for a market with the bookie we're betting with. how did we arrive with that amount? we did trial and error to test how much the limits were per market of that bookmaker by using a vip account and having our bet voided as a "good will gesture" using the excuse of extra zeroes was accidentally ticked when placing the bet on their phone app. no questions asked, they voided it and slowly we were able to figure out their limits.

 

That was how i knew that something was up in last night's game. fixed matches are trickier since we would need to go through each correct score selection and wait for it to get filled in -because, again, somebody knows something about something and that's a fact in the betting industry. Follow where the money is going. chances are, the money will come to you.

Posted Jun 2, 2017, 9:07 AM UTC

5749
Damsco93•

Please dont dissapear on us. Me and some other peasants need a new hero

34
Uldiiis•

In my opinion you gave a great insight on how you were identify the fixed match and your betting strategy overall. Hopefully you will be lucky and will be able to share more of matches like the one yesterday.

15
drwooo•

heh yeah i saw that one, made like 50€. should grow some balls and add a few zeros to my stakes on games like this :s

6
Jimnarez•

This is the kind of stuff we need right now. a new hero to do us some solid. thanks

5
statsbet•

Great post mate and fantastic insight and concept, I have also seen people do similar. Some people always try to go to deep in to the maths about pos + neg EV. Quick question though isn't the betfair markets based on total money so you don't no whats on the back and lay side in totals

5
drwooo•

well yeah you don't but if the total matched bets on the market are, say 120.000€ and 118.000 of that is on team A, doesn't really matter how much was backed/layed ... for every back bet there's a lay bet.

2
statsbet•

Yes so you wouldn't no what the fix would be, unless you use the graph to see decline in odds and by that time the price would have gone, also betfair use cross matching algorithm so it could go in to a different side of the market. but as he mentioned betfair was just the idea, and seems a great one

2
Compiler_GOP•

Yes. But we're not betting with betfair. We just made something similar to their market activity.

2
justanotherbettor•

How do you pull data like that from the bookies?

1
Compiler_GOP•

We use a software/app that tracks markets that hit limits w the bookie we bet on

1
poksimen•

Is it possible to have notification on your posts or something similar?

3
Compiler_GOP•

send me a direct message

1
Portugalpaul•

interesting concept but how do you get access to bookies numbers?

3
Compiler_GOP•

We use a software/app that tracks markets that hit limits w the bookie we bet on

1
swagabzPremier League•

thanks for the great insight!

2
Chris634•

You are an absolute legend mate.

2
yammington•

Interesting. Thanks for taking the time to post this.

1
ItchyBallzSack•

Very interesting read!

Will keep an eye out for anything post in future.

How often do these matches come about?

1
Compiler_GOP•

cant really say how often fix matches come about.

2
Jimnarez•

well we r hoping for more..Thanks again for the solid last night

3
johnnyc91•

Looking through your post history for the last day or so you were able to say that andraus u19 would win 4-2.

Can you really tell this much from looking at the amounts placed?

How do you decide which matches to look at?

1
Compiler_GOP•

it was because when i saw the HT correct score market of the bookie we bet with, they were standing to lose at least 30K++ at Away team 2-0. that means, team 2 to win 1st half 2-0 was the bet. how did i figure that out? simple. how can someone put a huge sum on a low-level tournament. a youth game is the perfect game to fix matches. just pay the players peanuts and they'll probably agree with syndicates.

 

then when we rechecked FT correct score markets, they were again standing to lose 30k++ at the market Home team to win the match 4-2. when the first half finished 0-2, that's how we confirmed that it was a possible fix. that's why we were all over All the home team related markets and of course the overs.

 

as for your question on how i decide which matches to look at, we just wait for a market/selection to have a possible loss of at least 30k with the bookie we're betting with. Specially if it's a shit league. we keep in mind that it's unusual for a low league/standard match to be having an unusual amount of money being piled in.

6
TotesMessenger•

I'm a bot, bleep, bloop. Someone has linked to this thread from another place on reddit:

^(If you follow any of the above links, please respect the rules of reddit and don't vote in the other threads.) ^(Info ^/ ^Contact)

1
[deleted]•

[removed]

1
the_wizard_of_oddsExperimenting•

I have two questions:

  • How do you factor in that you have pay a fee on betfair? You can hardly say by how much the line will shift, only that it does. There might be games for which your EV is still negative
  • For roughly how many games (relatively) are you able to find an edge?
1
Compiler_GOP•

im not using betfair to determine my picks anymore. i got an idea from betfair on how i can make a system that will track the money with the bookie we're betting with. the market activity tab on betfair selections i believe tells you the total amount matched on a certain selection. so relatively, money piled in = odds shortening. with my bookie's case, they just adjust the limits. poor bookmaking of course, but we're here to make money.

1
viktors89•

I don't think he's value betting wizard. He's going for the home-run on possible fixed games (big odds and many different markets bets at once), a completely different kind of betting IMO.

As for the OP, as long as it is able to find the correct game and its context (from what you explain I understand that you do your research and some filters), that sounds great. You could use that for horse-racing as well. (a bit more complex, but still..)

1
the_wizard_of_oddsExperimenting•

Okay maybe I explained it to bad. No matter what you do, you have to compute your expeted value. Lets say in 50% of the time, when says it is fixed, it really is (that would be still great). That means I would not bet on odds <2.1 (2.0 for the 50%, 0.1 for the juice or whatever).

Edit: Mentioning u/Compiler_G since I kind of want to know the answer.

Edit2: Obviously this is irrelevant if you have a hitrate of 100% (which I kind of doubt over the long time).

2
Compiler_GOP•

okay.. i do not compute for anything when i arrive on any selections. i simply track which market gets filled in with the bookie i bet with. at the beginning of last night's match, we were unsure if the away team 2-0 result at HT was genuine up until it actually happened. but before it was 2-0 away team, there was already money in there. so when that actually happened at ht, we were alerted of the same situation for their 4-2 FT correct score which has an even larger stake. i am not saying that whatever market gets filled with 30k++ Euros means it's a sure bet. however, i still tend to follow this strategy when the bookie i bet with is standing to lose a huge amount on a low standard league.

 

so in layman's terms, regardless of the price, if the market has a liability of at least 30K++ (on a low profile/low quality league/match), we pounce on it.

1
the_wizard_of_oddsExperimenting•

I undestood the tactic the first time you described it. You keep repeating the same things, just assume I know what you are doing.

Maybe from another perspective: How often did you actually find such a game, and how often did your prediction come true? Is it 100% with several games?

1
drwooo•

follow the money concept :)

last week i was watching football greek 2nd league, and there was like 5 matches being played at the same time. on betfair, match odds, average total matched maybe 3-4k per game. except one game, well over 100k. and all on draw lol, the draw odds pregame was like 1.4 in was funny as hell. at then the home team scores quite early and their odds just stay at 6-7 while draw remained at 1.4-1.5

it was hilarious and there's only one way to explain this really heh

1
Compiler_GOP•

im indeed not a value betting wizard nor going for the home-run on possible fixed games. i just follow the simple saying that in the betting market, somebody knows something more than anybody which translates into pouring in money for a certain selection. i just simply follow the money. money that should be determined normal or unusual for a league. 30k++ is normal for top european leagues. but isnt when it's being piled in Sheikh Jamal in a bangladesh federation cup game.

1
[deleted]•

I missed the match, what were odds for correct score 4 - 2 ? I checked on odds portal,but there is no info.

Thanks for sharing the match with us, hope i`ll catch next one !

1
[deleted]•

[deleted]

1
PutHimInDaBoot•

Nice one mate stay active on the sub

1
the_wizard_of_oddsExperimenting•

Something to consider for you: Legal authorities in almost all countries pay good money for finding fixed matches. Most countries have a specified police departement designated to simply this task. You could (beside from betting on it), also try to monetize your system in that way. There are even firms specialising on finding these matches.

The drawback is, your system has te be 100% legal (which I heavily doubt it is). You could also offer your services to the bookie you play at. They might give you a fee.

1
Compiler_GOP•

i wish i could. im easy. however it's not me that decides. i was not the only person that made this. we just use it as a tool.

2
_ShadowWalker_•

What were the odds for 4-2 correct score bet?

1
Sifmancan•

Don't have access to betfair (live in Canada), where can I go to see match activity ?

1