Election data young voters

Coming from Election data Twitter feed giant collection of tweets.

How many young or old voters in your seat

Average age in Con-held seats? 41 Median age in Con-held seats? 41 Average age in Lab-held seats? 38 Median age in Lab-held seats? 37

Labour has a problem with the older vote obviously. Population projections will make it worse if it isn't confronted.

In seats where the Conservatives are defending a majority of less than 5,000, over 65s outnumber 18-24s by an average of 7,602 voters.

In seats where the Conservatives are defending a majority of less than 10,000, over 65s outnumber 18-24s by an average of 7,426 voters.

In seats where Labour are defending a majority of less than 10,000, over 65s outnumber 18-24s by an average of 4,389 voters.

In seats where Labour are defending a majority of less than 5,000, over 65s outnumber 18-24s by an average of 5,000 voters.

Some people have asked me to expand my analysis of 18-24s to make it 18-34s. Well, there are roughly equal numbers of 18-29s and over 65s in the population so here goes with some analysis comparing 18-29s with over 65s. There are 10.1m over 65s and almost 10m 18-29s. There are 234 seats where 18-29s outnumber over 65s. 144 of these are held by Labour, with an average majority of 11,261. The Tories hold 68 with an average majority of 8,227. Labour hold 19 of the top 20 seats where 18-29s outnumber over 65s. 1. Manchester Central, 2. Sheffield C18-29s outnumber over 65s by around 30,000 in Bermondsey & Old Southwark and Nottingham South as examples. Perhaps unsurprisingly the largest differences are in London and other city seats. In seats where Labour are defending a majority of less than 10,000 there are an average 2,777 more 18-29s than over 65s In seats where the Tories are defending a majority of less than 5,000 there are an average 1,416 more over 65s than 18-29s n seats where the Tories are defending a majority of less than 10,000 there are an average 945 more over 65s than 18-29s

Lab-Con performance amongst 18 to 24s since 1997:

• 1997 Lab +18
• 2001 Lab +14
• 2005 Lab +10
• 2010 Lab +1
• 2015 Lab +16
• 2015 Lab +40?

Lab-Con performance amongst over 65s since 1997:

• 1997 Lab +5
• 2001 Con +1
• 2005 Con +6
• 2010 Con +13
• 2015 Con +24
• 2015 Con +40?

Proportion of 18 to 24s per constituency (map). Source: 2011 Census

Proportion of 25 to 44s per constituency (map). Source: 2011 Census:

Proportion of 45 to 64s per constituency (map). Source: 2011 Census:

Proportion of over 65s per constituency (map). Source: 2011 Census:

Ratio of over 65s to 18 to 24s per constituency (map). Source: 2011 Census. Blue = more 18 to 24s

Here some polling down on young voters link

Half (49%) of 18-24s want the Brexit negotiating team to secure free movement; it's their most pressing concern from negotiations

But half (52%) of 18-24s believe that Brexit reduces their life opportunities according to ICM/HopeNotHate/NUT poll

Little over a half (52%) of 18-24s supported a second EU referendum according to @ICMResearch @hopenothate (not good for Lib-Dem strategy)

Two-thirds of 18-24s who were registered and certain to vote said they supported Labour (68%) in @ICMResearch @hopenothate poll today

Four out of ten (39%) of 18-24 year-olds say that living in a marginal constituency would make them more likely to vote @hopenothate

This is the Electoral Commission chart showing registration by age group from December 2015:

So here's the rub. A week before election in 2015 YouGov had 60% of 18-24s saying they were certain to vote. It was 43% on election day. This year, a week before the election ICM have 63% of 18-24s certain to vote. Will it be another false dawn?

In 2015, around 66% of 18-24s were registered to vote according to the Electoral Commission. Today, the ICM poll has 91% of 18-24s saying they are registered to vote. Just getting back to pre-IER levels gets the 18-24s to around 75% registered so the 91% reported today is likely an over-estimate. Particularly given that the vast majority of applications for registrations were likely already registered so it's hard to claim that the pre-deadline push for new registrations has been massively different to 2015. So we're likely at around 75% registration levels for 18-24s. That takes about 1.5 million off the register (roughly 6m 18-24s *0.25). I could be wrong here of course but even if it gets up to 80% registration it's still a problem for Labour. Oh and one last thing. The registration rate for over 65s? It's 96% officially. Aged 55-64? It's 93%.

Assume that the 18-24 population is around 6 million. If three-quarters of them are registered, that's 4.5 million 18-24s who can vote. Now assume two turnout scenario's - one where 43% turnout as in 2015 and one where 63% turn as out as pollsters suggest. Bear in mind that a registration percentage of 75% is itself ambitious given it was 66% in 2015. But anyway. If we assume 43% turnout on that 75% it means there'll be 1,935,000 18-24 year olds voting next week. If we assume a 63% turnout on that 75% it gives us 2,835,000 18-24 year olds voting next week. Now bear in mind that, using similar past histories and estimates there will be around 7.5 million over 65s voting next week. So that's a max of 2.8 million 18-24s against an expected 7.5 million over 65s. Around a three to one ration against 18 to 24s, assuming that more of the 18 to 24s are registered than ever before, and that more of them vote than at any time in recent memory. That's the scale of the challenge facing any party, this time Labour, which is doing very well amongst 18 to 24 year olds. And it's why, amongst other reasons, I believe that they do remarkably well at getting their vote out election after election.