A MLS Prediction Model That I've Been Working On

Analysis

I've been working on a model to predict MLS games for the past couple weeks and figured I'd share and see if anybody had suggestions or comments on how to make it better.

The model is based solely on goals scored and goals allowed. It then uses the home teams stats and the away teams stats to create a prediction for a matchup between those two teams. This is all done by using a Poisson Table in Excel.

I then went and put in the fixtures for the rest of the season to see what the end-of-season table looks like.

Everything is a little rough right now and one wacky game can move the table a lot since each team only has ~13 games played. This should level out as the season goes on. Keep in mind this has no opinion in it at all, it's strictly numbers.

Here's the link, let me know what you think! http://imgur.com/a/0jSt9

Posted Jun 16, 2017, 7:10 PM UTC

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