a re-examination of the answering machine message(s)

ETA 5 - Based on a stubborn commenter to this OP, who kept insisting that "it's just that simple," I no longer believe it likely that LE concealed TH's answering machine message to the Zs because it indicated that the Zs was her last visit. Thanks, watt. I still do think the first part of my speculative hypothesis has merit, but I am open to being talked out of it, too. [end of ETA 5]

ETA 6 - One last thought (hopefully). Thanks to the stubborn commenter, I believe there's no need to invoke a sinister explanation to justify LE's early opinion that TH visited Z last on Oct 31. However, I wouldn't rule it out entirely. The details from the record I quote below don't favor either possible sequence (ASY then Z, or Z then ASY). So I still remain open to the possibility that something on the answering machine message favored their initial opinion. I also think they might have concealed this answering machine message for one or more other reasons. [end of ETA 6]

A new, hypothetical scenario to explain the answering machine message(s):

TH got a same-day shoot at the ASY on Oct 31. She had not been happy with SA's recent behavior (answering his door in a towel, flirting, whatever). She kind of dreaded to go out there, to be honest. Sometimes other people at ASY gave her business. The appointment had a different name and address. She was hoping SA wasn't involved this time.

So she called BJ's landline at 11:43am on Oct 31. She pretended not to know the address (a little white lie). She said she wouldn't show up unless someone called her back. This would let her know if SA was going to be there. She might even have found an excuse to skip or postpone the appointment if she learned that SA would be there.

For his part, SA knew that TH hadn't been happy with his behavior during her recent visits to ASY. He felt like he might have gone too far and that she might not even show up this time. So he went to BJ's trailer to check her answering machine messages to see if TH had called. He listened to TH's message, which he correctly interpreted as indicating her reluctance.

He was afraid that if he didn't call her back, she wouldn't show up. He called her back, but he hid his identity. That way, if she didn't answer, she would not know he was involved. She might show up anyway. As fate would have it, TH didn't answer the two hidden calls, and she did make the appointment.

As for TH's message on the Z's answering machine that she had left earlier in the afternoon, it indicated that her plan was to visit the Zs as the last appointment of the day. Maybe she even said that was her plan because she was having trouble finding the Z's place.

When LE listened to this message early in their investigation, they made the reasonable assumption that the Zs was her last stop of the day, just as she had stated in the message.

What LE hadn't realized initially, because it wasn't on the message, was that TH changed her mind and went to the Zs before ASY. Maybe she was dreading going back to ASY, fearing that SA would be there, and she wanted to put it off as long as possible, hoping she'd get a confirmation call at some point. So she headed to the Zs before ASY.

LE's investigation quickly led them to believe that she must have changed her mind and visited the Zs before the ASY. Since this was contradicted by TH's message to the Zs, they "lost" this message. They convinced JZ not to mention that TH had indicated that she had planned on visiting them last, as that information would only help SA escape justice.

Conclusions and tl;dr:

In this speculative, hypothetical scenario, SA is guilty (at least of luring), but LE is guilty, too (of committed a Brady violation by hiding the Z answering machine message). Because it mistakenly indicated that TH had planned to visit the Zs after ASY, information that would have benefited the defense. At this point the only way this could be verified beyond a reasonable doubt would be if the audio recording turns up or if someone talks.

ETA - If you don't think this is the reason LE concluded that TH went to the Zs after ASY, why do you think LE made this assumption? I cannot recollect any reason ever offered. (Also, lots of rewording)

ETA 2 - Was it ever explained in the trial testimony why LE assumed the Zs was the last stop? I really don't remember ever hearing any explanation. I would sincerely like to know if an explanation was offered and is in the public record. I think what I've proposed is possible and would explain why the recording of the message to the Zs was never released.

ETA 3 - More rewording

ETA 4:

Detailed explanation of my thinking:

Shortly before I made this OP, I had believed that the audio of the answering machine message purported to be from TH to BJ's landline was actually TH's message to the Z's answering machine. This made almost perfect sense to me.

For instance, TH said in the message that she didn't know the address of the appointment and she needed a call back. It was hard to understand why she'd make that claim for an Avery Road address, or that she'd have the right phone number for the appointment (BJ's landline) but not the correct address.

I also knew that LE had initially believed that TH had gone to the Zs after leaving the ASY. If LE switched the answering machine messages (which many sleuthers have believed for a long time), then perhaps the reason for LE's thinking the Zs was the last stop was in the missing BJ message. That would be why they had switched them.

Also, TH claiming she didn't have the address could have been morphed/coached into TH being lost on her way to the Zs.

This all sounded good to me. Really good. But I ran into problems with this idea when I took a closer look.

The audio identified as TH's message to BJ's residence is supposed to correspond to the 11:43am entry in TH's old phone records. The duration of the 11:43am call was 1m5s long. (See trial Exhibit 361.)

The actual audio of TH's message can be found on youtube. Her actual message to BJ's landline was 35s. This is consistent, assuming BJ's answering machine has a greeting.

The message TH left for the Zs was supposed to have been at 2:12pm and lasted 1m09s. So, based on the old phone records and recording length, the actual audio recording we have could have been either message.

TH's message, according to both the BD trial transcripts (day 2, p.126-27) and the youtube upload is the following:

Hello. This is Teresa with AutoTrader Magazine. I'm the photographer, and just giving you a call to let you know that I could come out there today, urn, in the afternoon. It would -- will probably be around two o'clock or even a little later. But, urn, if you could please give me a call back and let me know if that will work for you, because I don't have your address or anything, so I can't stop by without getting the -- a call back from you. And my cell phone is xxx-xxxx. Again, it's Teresa, xxx-xxx-xxxx. Thank you.

IMO, her saying that she would be out there "in the afternoon" almost certainly indicates that this call was made in the morning. That's when I concluded that this must be the 11:43am recording to the BJ residence.

But I still have the problem of why LE initially believed that TH visited the Zs after ASY.

Then there's the new allegations of massive discrepancies between the old phone records used at trial (which is what I've used) and new ones in KZ's exhibit (which I don't have the patience to dive into at this point).

So I still have unresolved questions. I put forth a speculative scenario and was hoping that this would promote a discussion/debate of at least possible reasons why LE thought early on that TH went to the Zs after ASY. So far it's been crickets (except for one commenter).

Also, I was wondering whether anyone thinks phone records had been altered and that the audio we have is, in fact, the call from TH to the Zs.