Drop rates questioned

This is not confirmed, but my reasoning on the drop rates of cards is different than other's reasonings.

This is how I see how the game determines what you get out of a Brawl Box, first, it flips a coin to see what rarity your box will be, then another to see if it is either Elixir or a Brawler, then a final flip in case it is a Brawler to find out what Brawler you will get.

The reasoning...

We have all seen the posts saying how all they get is 1 elixir, which probablility wise should be fairly low as there are 7 common Brawlers and only 1 1 elixir, which makes a 0.125 chance of getting it if your box if it is rolled at a common, but as clearly seen this is not true. There is actually a 0.50 of getting 1 elixir and only a 0.071 chance of getting a certain common Brawler.

If my reasoning is true then there is a 50% chance overall of getting elixir from a Brawl Box pretty much no matter how you look at it, no matter whether a common, rare, epic, or legendary...

Thanks for reading my ramble, post your opinions if you want, see you next time.