(Civ6) [Strategy/Data gathering] Intercepting Nukes: How, and How Likely

Hi all,

While playing a heated Modern Era multiplayer game with friends in the base game (no mods), we of course have found ourselves reliant on nukes for warfare. It's no secret that nukes in civ6 are quite strong.

However, we're struggling at estimating the probabilities of nukes being intercepted, and this makes the game a bit hard to play, so we'd like some help from the internets regarding the odds you've seen, or if people have gathered relevant data on this.

Defense against nukes, from what we understand/read online, is the same as defense against planes (air units). Any unit that has anti-air defense will also give you chances of intercepting nukes, granted that the nuke's destination is withing your unit's anti-air range. Therefore you can use units such as:

-Anti-air gun -SAM infantry -Missile Cruiser -Battleships -Planes and Jets on patrol mode

In order to reduce your chances to get nuked within their range.

From what I understand, thermonuclear nukes, however, have extremely small chances of being intercepted. Has anyone here ever had a Thermonuclear nuke intercepted?

From observations, regarding regular nukes, the different units listed above probably range from around 5% to 60% interception probabilities. It is also one of our assumptions that those percentages stack*; so if you target a tile with a nuke that has three anti-air defenders, then you have to get all 3 of them to fail their interception in order to land the nuke.

What do you think? Does the above seem accurate? Do you have any data or remarks that contradicts it, or would like to add more information relevant to protection against nukes?

*Not by adding the percentages obviously, but by the chance of the nuke landing being the intersection of all the interceptions missing. So if you have 3 units with interception chances 1/2, 1/2 and 1/4, then you probability of landing the nuke is 1/2 * 1/2 * 3/4 = 3/16.