r/nfl•9 yr. ago

Offseason Review Series, Day 19: The New York Giants

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#New York Giants

2016 record: 11-5 (2nd in the division, 5th seed in the playoffs, lost to the Packers in the Wild Card round)

#Introduction

When the Giants were dominating the Packers through the first quarter and a half of their playoff matchup in Lambeau, I really felt this was the start of another magical run. The defense was flying around, getting to the quarterback, disrupting one of the hottest offenses in the league. Meanwhile on the other side of the football, Eli was moving the ball with ease, closely resembling the quarterback who shocked the football world in the same venue five years ago. The ending was disappointing, but coming into 2017, I don’t think I’ve ever felt better about a Giants team in the Eli Manning era than I do as I type these words out. The defense returns nearly all of their starters and the offense got major upgrades at receiver and tight end through free agency and the draft. I want that third ring for Eli badly, I want it because it would mean he would personally have three more rings than the Eagles have won in their lifetime, I want it so the organization would have the same number of Super Bowl trophies as That Team In Texas Not Named The Texans and most importantly I want it so we can end the debate over if Eli is a Hall of Famer. We shouldn’t even be discussing it and yet I still read from doubters every year. Unless the soul of Brandon Meriweather overtakes Landon Collins body, this team has as good of a chance as any in the league to give Eli the opportunity to lift his third Lombardi trophy.

#2016 team statistics

Offensive rank

Type	2016	2015
Points	26	6
Yards	25	8
DVOA	23	16

By every metric available, the Giants offense was terrible in 2016. It’s easy to point the blame towards the Giants tackles, or ineffective run game or lack of talent at the tight end spot, and fans would be well within their right to spread the blame across different positional groups, but their struggles go beyond lack of skill-set at key positions. If Giants fans didn't know what 11 personnel meant before this season, they sure do now, though when people criticize McAdoo for staying in one formation, they are missing a larger point. The Giants offense wasn’t bad because they only stayed in 11 personnel, and I think McAdoo deserves a pass for sticking with this formation as much as he did. The Giants didn’t employ any blocking tight ends, had no fullbacks on the roster and lacked depth at running back. The personnel McAdoo was handed left him with few options. Where McAdoo deserves blame is with his lack of creativity when using 11 personnel. He rarely moved players around the formation, typically keeping the same guys in the same spot in the formation, with Eli in shotgun. It got to a point where if Eli was ever spotted under center it was actually noteworthy. The Giants offensive scheme is stale, and contrary to what traditional metrics may indicate, the offense has never been that good under McAdoo. The wheels finally came off the offensive bus last year, but I’ll argue the bus was never moving that well to begin with. Football Outsiders DVOA metric is the best metric to assess how each team’s units stack up relative to other teams since it incorporates teams strength of schedule. In the McAdoo era, the Giants offense has ranked 14th, 16th and 26th in the league. Defenders of Ben McAdoo will point out he’s never had as good of an offensive line, running backs, tight ends or wide receivers that Gilbride had at his disposal during his peak, and that is very fair, though that excuse will fall on deaf ears if the 2017 offense is only a slightly sexier version of 2016.

Defensive ranks

Type	2016	2015
Points	2	30
Yards	10	32
DVOA	2	31

The Giants defense made history last season, they made the highest leap in DVOA in the history of the NFL. Jerry Reese got great return on the $103,500,000 guaranteed dollars he handed Vernon, Jenkins and Harrison last year. The biggest surprise was the leap Landon Collins took from his freshman to sophomore year. We can safely blame his poor 2015 performance on having to partner with Brandon Meriweather, there isn’t a safety in the league who would look good having to cover both sides of the field. Lastly, one can’t help but wonder what Tom Coughlin’s reaction was to the signings a year after he "resigns". It’s like getting evicted by your landlord because he blames you for the leak in the ceiling and the sewage coming from the bathroom, then once you are out he invests $100,000 in brand new appliances for the new tenant. And yes, in that analogy, Jayron Hosley represents the leaking ceiling.

#Draft

It’s challenging to contain your excitement when your football team drafts a tight end who ran a slightly faster 40 time than Odell Beckham Jr. Not only does Engram present Eli with another pass catching threat, but he should be able to exploit the middle of the field if defenses continue to play cover 2 against McAdoo’s offense. McAdoo has promised to creatively move Engram around the field, injecting any creativity into the offense would be welcomed after last year.
Dalvin Tomlinson was the Giants best value pick and he will fill an immediate void at defensive tackle. Is there a better feeling during draft season than selecting a defensive player from Alabama, especially one that played on their front seven? From Marcell Dareus, Dont’a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw and C.J. Mosley, Alabama has a strong track record. Now the Giants have one of their own and I couldn’t be prouder.
Michael Lombardi, who formerly worked with the Browns, Eagles, Raiders and Patriots and now works for The Ringer as an NFL contributor, made an interesting point about the value of drafting quarterbacks in the middle rounds of the draft. Teams do this hoping to find the next Tom Brady, Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott, but they also do it because if at worse the player becomes competent enough to become a backup, teams are still getting great value on that contract since the market value for backups are more than the contract a player receives if drafted in the middle of the draft. I’ve never seen Davis Webb play, but had no problem with the pick. Why not gamble in round three and if his ceiling is that of a backup quarterback, then the Giants still got great value out of that selection.

#Free agency

Lost

Player	Position	Result
Victor Cruz	Wide receiver	Released, signed by Chicago
Rashad Jennings	Running back	Released, still a FA
Johnathan Hankins	Defensive tackle	Expired contract, signed with the Colts
Robbie Gould	Kicker	Expired contract, signed with the 49ers
Marshall Newhouse	Offensive tackle	Expired contract, signed with the Raiders
Coty Sensabaugh	Cornerback	Expired contract, signed with the Steelers
Ryan Nassib	Quarterback	Expired contract, signed with the Saints
Kelvin Sheppard	Linebacker	Expired contract, still a UFA
Leon Hall	Cornerback	Expired contract, still a UFA
Trevin Wade	Cornerback	Expired contract, still a UFA
Larry Donnell	TE	Expired contract, still a UFA

Out of all the names on this list, I’ll probably miss Marshall Newhouse the most (I can’t believe I just put that on paper). Newhouse had arguably his best year of his career last year and took over for Bobby Hart after his disastrous start in Philadelphia. He would be the Giants best right tackle if he were still on the roster.
I don't believe the Giants were serious about trying to bring back Hankins. Hankins had a down year playing next to Harrison and has never exhibited the ability to rush the passer. It was reported the Giants offered him 4/28, which was never going to get the deal done (though came closer than I think Hankins expected). It's not smart to allocate a lot of cap space against two defensive tackles who can't rush the passer. The Giants made the prudent decision by not overpaying for Hankins services.
Coty Sensabaugh was the player the Giants wanted back the most out of the the UFAs they lost. Depth at corner is a major concern for the Giants, it was only six months ago that the Giants lost Rodgers-Cromartie early in the Packers game and, well, let’s just keep moving on to 2017.
At his peak, Victor Cruz was one of the best Giants I’d ever seen play. From his debut in Philadelphia, to his 99 yard TD against the Jets and his Super Bowl catch, his impact on the organization will be remembered forever. He inspired me to learn the salsa and I don’t even like to dance. I wish him all the best in Chicago.

#New FA Acquisitions (players in bold I expect to make the 53 man roster)

Player	Position
Brandon Marshall	Wide receiver
Rhett Ellison	Tight end
D.J. Fluker	Offensive lineman
Mark Herzlich	Linebacker
Valentino Blake	Cornerback
Geno Smith	Quarterback
Duke Ihenacho	Safety
Devin Taylor	Defensive end
Corbin Bryant	Defensive tackle
Shaun Draughn	Running back

When Ernie Accorsi signed Plaxico Burress in 2005, he did so for two reasons, 1) he recognized that when Eli is inaccurate, he tends to let balls sail on him, and 2) Eli’s gunslinger mentality pairs well with big receivers on the outside who excel at attacking the football at it’s highest point. It’s the why drafting Hakeem Nicks made so much sense, Eli has always brought out the best of big targets wide of the hash marks. I think Eli deserves to go into the Hall of Fame just for Rueben Randle’s 71/938/3 stat line in 2014. Brandon Marshall is now next in line to benefit from Eli’s willingness to let his receivers make plays, and I hope Marshall brings out the gunslinger I’ve come to adore and love, since it’s been a couple of years since we’ve seen Eli truly look like Eli (more on this later).
If I was granted one wish, I’d pray for the Giants to give Fluker the opportunity to compete for the right tackle job instead of having him attempt to unseat Jerry at right guard. Per ProFootballFocus’s data, Fluker has performed much better at tackle than guard, playing at around league average play his first two years in the league. There is a lot to be desired when watching Jerry run block, if he were 50 pounds lighter you could excuse Giants fans for mistaking him for Larry Donnell. However, he has proven to be a good pass blocker and that is what is most important to me when I assess the offensive line. The only person I ever want to see laying a hand on Eli Manning is Abby Manning (I’m not saying I’d want to actually see that, or am I…?). If Fluker can provide the Giants with league average pass blocking on the far right side of the offensive line, that is still a major upgrade over the level of play Bobby Hart has provided the past two years.
Before I discuss Rhett Ellison, I want to go on record that I acknowledge his skill set fills a major need for the Giants, he will add a physical element to the Giants offense that is sorely needed. The issue with Ellison is not the player, it's the contract. The Giants grossly overpaid for Ellison, and if you need proof, look at the contracts paid out to top fullbacks this year. James Devlin and Patrick DiMarco, two of the best fullbacks in the game, both will make less money on average and were given smaller guarantees. For those that feel tight ends are a better comparable to Ellison, he was given more guaranteed money than Jack Doyle and Martellus Bennett. Not to mention Ellison only played in 25% of the snaps last year. Before fans scream at me for not acknowledging that the Vikings ran a spread offense out of shotgun that decreased the emphasis on a blocking tight end and I lose you for the rest of the piece, I know and acknowledge it. But you know who also runs a spread offense out of shotgun primarily in 11 personnel? The Giants. The Giants will run more traditional 12 sets, I just question if they will run them enough to warrant a major investment in a blocking tight end. Having said all of that, when Ellison is sealing the edge and knocking Sean Lee back to Penn State week one in Dallas, am I going to be thinking at all about his bloated contract? Probably not.

#Projected starting lineup

Offense

Position	Starters
Quarterback	Eli Manning
Running back	Paul Perkins
Wide receiver	Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Marshall, Sterling Sheppard
Tight end	Evan Engram, Rhett Ellison
Left tackle	Ereck Flowers
Left guard	Just Pugh
Center	Weston Richburg
Right guard	John Jerry
Right tackle	Bobby Hart

The Giants running game received a jolt of life after Paul Perkins took over for Rashad Jennings, but I'm not convinced he can carry the team as a true number one back. It wouldn't surprise me if Perkins and Vereen both got an equal number of touches. Before Vereen was injured, he averaged 4.8 yards a carry. I believe when healthy, he's the Giants best back.
For the first time in Odell's career he will be playing with a receiver on the opposite side of the field that defenses will have to pay attention to. With Brandon Marshall's size and ability to beat one-on-one coverage and Engram forcing defenses to finally defend the middle of the field against the Giants, Beckham should have ample opportunities to get behind coverage. This is the best collection of pass catchers Eli Manning has had at his disposal since 2011.
First, I believe when Ereck Flowers realized all he needs to do is not separate from coverage, put the ball on the ground and whiff on every block and he can be a starting tight end for the Giants, he motivated himself to lose some weight. It's encouraging to read how dedicated Flowers and Hart have been this offseason at improving their game and bodies. Secondly, I don't blame the Giants for not upgrading the offensive line. This was the worst offseason to upgrade the tackle spot. The Giants couldn't afford Whitworth or Wagner, and I'd rather pay for three Rhett Ellison's than one Matt Kalil.

Defense

Position	Starters
Defensive end	Olivier Vernon, Jason Pierre-Paul
Defensive tackle	Damon Harrison, Robert Thomas
Linebacker	Devon Kennard, Keenan Robinson, B.J. Goodson
Cornerback	Janoris Jenkins, Eli Apple, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Safety	Landon Collins, Andrew Adams, Darian Thompson

If cornerback depth is the #1 concern among Giants fans, lack of depth on the defensive line is a close #2. The Giants can't expect JPP and Vernon to play at a high level while also playing nearly every snap, Vernon played in 94% of all defensive snaps last year. That is not sustainable. Last year the Giants ranked 23rd in Football Outsiders adjusted sack rate, largely due to lack of depth at defensive end and lack of interior pass rushers. The Giants only have three players that have proven they can compete in the NFL along the defensive line. Okwara, Taylor, Moss, Thomas and Bromley all have a lot to prove before Spagnuolo can trust to lean on them to give the stars a break.
The Giants enter the 2017 season with the best trio of linebackers since they trotted out Jonathan Goff, Michael Boley and Keith Bulluck in 2010. The Giants likely won't expose Goodson in coverage and will platoon him with Robinson to allow each linebacker to play to their strengths. Kennard has been an enigma most of his career, exhibited great potential as a rookie, though struggled to stay healthy his first two years in the league. For the first time in his career he played in all 16 games and will be motivated to play well in his walk year.
One of the few starting spots up for grabs on the team are at free safety, though I'd argue this battle is pointless to even discuss. Regardless of who is labeled the starter, both Adams and Thompson will play a lot. There will be many instances when all three safeties will be on the field at the same time, bringing back fond memories of 2011 when the Giants rolled Phillips, Grant and Rolle together. The Giants can mitigate the lack of depth they have corner by leveraging Landon Collins strong man-to-man coverage skills, allowing him to play down in the box and letting Adams and Thompson split the field.

#Offensive roster discussion

Locks

Position	Players
Quarterback	Eli Manning, Davis Webb
Running back	Paul Perkins, Shane Vereen, Orleans Darkwa, Wayne Gallman
Wide receiver	Odell Beckham Jr, Brandon Marshall, Sterling Sheppard
Tight end	Evan Engram, Rhett Ellison, Jerell Adams
Offensive linemen	Ereck Flowers, Justin Pugh, Weston Richburg, John Jerry, Bobby Hart, D.J. Fluker, Adam Bisnowaty

The battles (players in bold are players I expect to make the 53)

Quarterback: Josh Johnson vs. Geno Smith

If this decision was based off talent alone, Geno Smith would be the clear winner of the back-up QB battle. If god forbid Eli Manning ever had to miss a game, it would take less drinks for Giants fans to convince themselves they can win with Smith than Johnson. However, the Giants staff will also strongly weigh their decision based on who is most familiar with the offense (though one could easily argue it shouldn’t take that long to master the art of throwing the slant, the quick hitch and the three yard out route to the tight end). That gives Josh Johnson a clear advantage over Geno, and when you factor in that Geno isn’t fully healthy yet and carries a slightly higher cap hit, that paves the way for Josh Johnson to claim the backup QB role. Though if we are being honest, if anything did happen to my hero #10, I’d prefer the Giants sign Tim Tebow, tank for the #1 pick and trade that pick and Tebow to the Jets for a few future first round picks.

Wide receiver: Dwayne Harris vs. Tavarres King vs. Jeremy Lane vs. Roger Lewis vs. Darius Powe vs. Travis Rudolph

Dwayne Harris is a borderline lock, but I didn’t want him to read this and get complacent, so I’ve placed him on the bubble. Given Harris isn’t a strong receiver and like many Giants fans, I have not forgiven him for blowing the Minnesota game (joking, sort of), the fact that he excels as a run blocker and on punt coverage and the Giants would eat a lot of dead cap space if he is cut makes him close to a lock. Harris also quietly has one of the most unsettling incentives in his contract, he can bank an extra $600,000 for averaging at least 10 yards on punt returns, which could lead to Harris catching punts over his shoulder like vintage Willie Mays at his own two yard line just to help afford the down payment on that Upper West Side brownstone he’s always wanted.
It took McAdoo way too long before he gave King and Lewis an opportunity to play on outside in replace of Cruz, both players should have taken over for Cruz mid-way through the season. I don’t fault Cruz for having a tough year, even in his prime when he was leaving Terence Newman in his dust, he was never an effective outside receiver. King and Lewis have the size and speed to separate on the outside and stretch the field, particularly King who ended the year strong in Green Bay by catching a deep post from Eli for a touchdown (why it took until week 18 for the Giants to discover the middle of the field deserves a whole other post). Lewis vs. Powe may be one of the closest position battles to keep an eye on in camp, but expect Lewis to get the nod over the University of Cal alumn.

Tight end: Matt LaCosse vs. Will Tye

If you had to fill in the blank in the sentence “Will Tye excels at “ what what you fill in? I have no doubt Will Tye excels at a variety of non-football related activities. He could be a world class chef or an expert linguistic, but when it comes to football, I’ve yet to understand what skill he exhibits that warrants the amount of playing time he has gotten. The best thing that has ever happened to his career is he had the good fortune of having Larry Donnell come before him. I’ll always cherish his Kevin Boss-esque catch and run against the Packers last year, but it is time to give LaCosse a test drive. Word from the beat writers is Matt LaCosse has had a great camp. We already know what Will Tye is, it’s time to move on and the Giants will likely do so come August.

Offensive linemen: Adam Gettis vs. Brett Jones vs. Chad Wheeler

Let’s give kudos to the Giants for finding a talented reserve offensive lineman in Canada. I now drink Labatt Blue's on football Sunday's out of respect for Brett. Brett Jones filled in admirably when Justin Pugh went down last season and should beat out Adam Gettis for the last reserve offensive lineman spot. Chad Wheeler is this year’s token UDFA Guy That Giants Fans Hope We Can Stash On The Practice Squad. It’s fair to say the hype has exceeded the buzz Donte Deayon generated last year.

#Defensive roster discussion

Locks

Position	Players
Defensive end	Avery Moss, Jason Pierre-Paul, Romeo Okwara, Olivier Vernon
Defensive tackle	Damon Harrison, Dalvin Tomlinson
Linebacker	B.J. Goodson, Mark Herzlich, Devon Kennard, Keenan Robinson
Cornerback	Eli Apple, Janoris Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Safety	Andrew Adams, Landon Collins, Darian Thompson
Specialist	Brad Wing, Zak DeOssie

Battles (players in bold are players I expect to make the 53)

Defensive end: Owa Odighizuwa vs. Devin Taylor vs. Kerry Wynn

Kerry Wynn is the Will Tye of Giants defensive ends. Before the Knicks handed Tim Hardaway Jr 71 million dollars (though to be fair, I wouldn’t put it past them if they thought they were signing the 1996 version of his father), Kerry Wynn was in contention for worse contact out of the NY sports teams I root for, and given he is slated to make 1.8 million this year, that should give you an idea of how I feel about him. There is no chance the Giants keep Wynn and his 1.8M cap hit over Devin Taylor. I don’t see any avenue for Owa to make the team and do hope on a personal level he is in a good place.

Defensive tacke: Jay Bromley vs. Corbin Bryant vs. Robert Thomas

It’s safe to say the Giants are not high on Bromley’s potential. In his three years on the team, he’s never played more than 40% of snaps (that was his 2015 high, only because Hankins got hurt half way through the year) and the Giants big investment in Harrison should indicate their sentiment towards Bromley. Yet, he’s still their best third round pick since the Giants grabbed Mario Manningham in 2008. Having said all of that, Bromley and Thomas will beat out newcomer Corbin Bryant. If Jay can’t beat out Thomas for playing time, Bromley will join Jerrel Jernigan, Chad Jones, Ramses Barden, Travis Beckhum, Jayron Hosley and Damontre Moore in the collection of third round busts.

Linebacker: Jonathan Casillas vs. Deontae Skinner vs. J.T. Thomas

Cutting J.T. Thomas seemed like such a no-brainer, it catches me off guard every time I’m reminded he is still on the team. What is the organization waiting for? Thomas has struggled to stay healthy since signing his three year deal, missing 18 games the past two years. I don’t think anyone has ever had a career game against the right team at the right time than J.T. Thomas did in 2014 when he racked up 12 tackles against the Giants. It’s safe to say the Giants came away overly impressed. Jonathan Casillas has emerged as one of the leaders of the team and Skinner’s contributions on special teams makes Thomas expendable.

Cornerback: Valentino Blake vs. Donte Deayon vs. Michael Hunter vs. Mykkele Thompson

One thing I love about McAdoo, besides his new hair-cut, is his comfort with playing young players. As a result of his emphasis on youth, I don’t think there is any way Valentino Blake makes the team. Deayon had a strong camp in 2016 and one has to think Hunter has grown since being abused by Aaron Rodgers last year (reports out of camp are he has looked great). Thompson has never been healthy with the Giants and is a long shot to make the team, though his odds are improved now that he has switched from safety to cornerback.

Safety: Nat Berhe vs. Duke Ihenacho vs. Eric Pinkins

The signing of Duke Ihenacho likely sealed Nat Berhe’s fate with the Giants. Duke was stronger against the pass than the run last year, according to ProFootballFocus metrics and will likely make the team as a reserve safety and insurance for Darian Thompson. Berhe isn’t even the best safety on the Giants who also attended San Diego State. That award goes to Eric Pinkins, the third year player drafted by Seattle who at worse will be an asset on special teams.

Specialist: Aldrick Rosas vs. no one

I feel like I should be more concerned about the Giants kicking situation than I actually am. I haven’t given it one thought, which means come week one in Dallas Rosas will be lining up to kick a 49 yard field goal with three seconds left in the game, down by two, with 100,000 screaming fans trying to get him off his game as I scramble to look up his stats for the first time from his days playing division two ball at Southern Oregon University just to help calm my nerves. Zak DeOssie says Rosas has “ice in his veins”. If he has Zak’s blessing, he has mine too.

#2017 outlook

With the defense returning nearly all of their starters and the offense introducing new weapons, one would expect the Giants to improve on their 11-5 record this season (scheduling aside). Their current o/u is set at nine wins which is right in line with their 2016 expected win total of 8.8 (based off their point differential). There are many reasons to be optimistic, new offensive weapons, a slimmed down Ereck Flowers and the maturation of young players such as Landon Collins, Eli Apple, Darian Thompson, B.J. Goodson and Paul Perkins. Though at the end of the day, whether the Giants make it back to the Super Bowl rests in Eli’s hands. Ben McAdoo was brought it to improve Eli’s footwork and force Eli to get the ball out quick, and while the metrics suggest McAdoo has had a positive impact on Eli, I question how true that actually is. As mentioned previously, the Giants offense hasn’t been that good under McAdoo and Eli at times has looked hesitant and unwilling to rip it like he used too under Gilbride. I miss the old Eli, not the guy who threw for nearly 9,000 yards and 65 TDs in 2014 and 2015, but the gunslinger who was willing to take risks and never felt he was out of a game. That mentality can lead to frustrating interceptions, but also brought memorable moments such as the Tyree catch, the comeback against Dallas in 2011 and the Manningham catch to set up his Super Bowl MVP. He is the most confident risk taker I’ve ever watched, this is who Eli is and honestly I wouldn’t want my QB any other way.
In season one episode 19 of the West Wing, Jed Bartlett’s staff become frustrated that the administration is playing things to cautiously, dipping their toes in the water but not taking any risks to make a true impact. At the end of the season the senior staff meet with Chief of Staff Leo McGarry and vent their frustration. Leo takes it upon himself to speak to the president and convey the staff’s sentiment. The adjectives the staff used to describe the Jed Bartlett administration are the same ones I’d use to describe Eli and the offense under McAdoo. Their passing game feels risk averse, dipping their toes into the water, but rarely making a splash. What I am trying to get at is, it is time to let Eli be Eli.

Thanks for reading. Go Giants!

Posted Jul 22, 2017, 9:31 AM UTC · edited

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