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doc_samson

WEF indirectly predicts price of Bitcoin?

With the recent MOON discussions and McAfee's prediction of $500k and others at $50-100k+ per coin, I'm curious what people think of this from 2015:

https://www.coindesk.com/world-economic-forum-governments-blockchain/

Summary: WEF predicts mass adoption of digital currencies and blockchain by 2027. At that point it will account for 10% of global GDP.

But note that this is for digital currencies and blockchains in general, not Bitcoin-specific. In fact an emphasis seems to be on the "smart contract" approach.

How much is world GDP? $80 trillion according to WEF in 2015. OECD predicts $101 trillion in 2027. 10% of that is $10.1 trillion. How much of that is Bitcoin? Who knows. Let's say 10% of that given the hundreds or thousands of other options that will pop up between now and then. (in which case 10% is a lot of the market) That is $1.01 trillion. Blockchain.info says about 16.5 million coins are in circulation so let's bump that up to say 17 million around 2027 that gives a value per coin of $1.01 trillion / 17 million = about $60k per bitcoin. (this doesn't account for losing bitcoins)

Every additional 10% (of the original 10%) that Bitcoin takes adds another $60k to value.

This is of course assuming Bitcoin survives to that point, but given the momentum behind blockchain tech in general I don't see why it shouldn't. But still that is an open possibility.

Now, according to the values and beliefs of those who believe in Bitcoin's underlying philosophy, hodling for $60k+ per coin is a lost cause, because by the time the coin is worth that the currency will have been devalued so much that $60k will only get you maybe a six pack of beer. Right? :)

Someone please come along and educate me on why this will never be possible.

Original report: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GAC15_Technological_Tipping_Points_report_2015.pdf

Posted Aug 17, 2017, 7:53 PM UTC

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