I'm sitting in an extremely favorable spot that has an outside chance at hitting the nuts on the primetime slate. I have Tyreek left and can either play Hunt/Wilson or Kelce/Thompson. What option do you prefer? I feel the Hunt/Wilson is the better play but Kelce/Thompson might have a higher ceiling.
Edit: Don't think I can fade Hunt. Decision now comes down to who I want between Kelce or Hill. What do you think and why?
Posted Oct 2, 2017, 1:58 PM UTC · edited
I like hunt/wilson...chiefs will try to put Norman on Tyreke as much as possible, forcing targets to secondary receivers. This would make Kelce a great play too, but I think he and Thompson will be chalky. I also think Thompson comes crashing back to earth in this match-up.
Norman shadowing Hill is not necessarily bad for Hill. Norman does not have top end speed, so unless Hill gets a shadow and a safety over the top he could burn Norman.
I could play Hunt/Kelce/Wilson as well.. trying to figure out the least chalky option of the KC big 3. So hard to predict on these gimmicky short slates.
You're gonna have to eat some chalk on a small slate. The trick is to find which chalk will under perform. I think it's Thompson here.
Of course, I agree.. the trick is to find the lower owned "chalk" that have similar projections, which in turn would be +EV. This example in particular is intriguing, Thompson and hill are guys that people have seen dominate in national spotlight and will carry even higher ownership percentages than normal.
If you're already in a favorite spot, shouldn't you want all the chalk? If Hunt goes off and you don't have him, you forfeit your position.
Yeah agreed I can't fade Hunt.. so my decision comes down to Kelce or Hill.
I'd take Kelce there
Norman doesn't move around that much and he rarely plays the slot so i don't think that assuming they will shadow with him is right. It could happen, but I don't think that it will and am hoping for a big game from him and smith.
I agree with your thought that Thompson is a fade. His production is bound to return to normal and this seems like a bad match up for him.
So hill hunt kelce
hah I wish I could do that combo.. only can use 2 of KC's big 3, not enough salary left.
I've got them. Sitting 79 fps rn but whoever started mkissic is probably gonna win. I started gore
so tonight I have Hill/Hunt/Alex/Chiefs D
Kelce im sure will be fine but personally I will be rooting for him to be protecting my guy Alex all night. Need a good chiefs beatdown I don't want my Mckissic lineup to go to waste.
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hunt/hill.... then who do you have the option of from there?
Anyone under $3,800 if I went with Hill and any receiver under $4,700 if I went with Kelce. Thoughts? (Hunt is in my last RB spot still to play as well)
if Fat rob is out... and you choose to go Kelce I feel Perine is your play.
personally if you're in good position now... if take Hunt and Hill and take a boom or bust option with Doctson.
Who did you have in the Sunday game?
Wilson/Mckissic/Lockett/Richardson/Doyle/SEA D. Only other team that would be guaranteed higher ATM is swapping Richardson for Montcrief. Very unlikely (but possible) considering Mckissic is only 5% owned.
I'd play Conley over Wilson
Any insight behind that? I know he's on the field a lot, but I don't think he had a single ball thrown his way last week. That's scary.
Conley just has better size than Wilson, Conley could get a cheap red zone TD
I'm excited too, I'm on the bubble right now in a DK pickem but I have 1-Alex smith, 2-Kareem hunt, 3-tyreek hill all left to play. Let's go offensive showcase chiefs! I hope the Redskins look like the Pats D out there!!
I like Kelce Thompson. Hunt too much
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But that sweet sweet boom potential....