Vegas line movements for week 9

After seeing u/8mileallstars weekly player prop post, I figured I'd start a weekly line movement post if enough people like it. since this is the first post, I'll explain a few terms and then get into the analysis. If you're familiar with this, skip to the week 9 summary part. I think one of the most underrated parts of DFS is watching where sharp bettors put their money.

Two terms I'll be using regularly is reverse line movement (RLM) and sharp money. Reverse line movement occurs when the line moves towards a certain side of bets but has significantly less bets on that side. For example, if a games O/U is set at 50 and 85% of the bets are on the over yet the line moves down to 48, this would be considered RLM. How does this happen? Let's say there's 100 people betting on this instance. 85 of the 100 bet $1 on the over, I.e 85% of the bets. The other 15% of people bet $10 on the under, i.e 15% of the bets. These people betting larger sums of money typically are much sharper and may even do it for a living. As you can see, although 85% bet the over, the total amount bet on the under is $150 compared to $85. The Vegas books will aim to limit their total exposure to one side and lower the O/U line, enticing people to bet the over at, for example, 48.

Sharp money is very similar - let's say 80% of people bet the over at $1 each, the other 20% bet $4 each on the under. Although 80% bet the over, the line doesn't move since there's an equal $ amount on both sides. The under would be where the sharp money is.

That being said, let's get into week 9.

The DAL/KC game is amongst the most intriguing. The O/U opened at 51 and while 67% bet the under, the line moved up a whopping 3 pts, which is a huge RLM. Take this with a grain of salt, however, as a good portion of the line movement came Friday, which I think is most likely due in big part to the announcement Zeke was eligible to play. All of the 3 pts implied team total increase belongs to DAL, FWIW.

The NO/TB game has seen a 2 pt increase in the O/U to 52, yet only has 44% of the bets (RLM).This is the second highest total of the week. TB is 7 pt dogs, might be interesting to get a piece of their pass game if you think they'll be chasing all game.

BAL/TN looks to be low scoring at only 43 for the O/U. However, 73% of the bets have been on the under yet the line hasn't moved. Good indication of sharp money on the over.

ATL/CAR is one of the most intriguing games in terms of teams favored goes. ATL Opened the week as 2 pt dogs and with the bets being split 50/50, ATL is now favored by 2.5. That's a massive amount of sharp money on ATL. Does Julio finally get it going this week? Who knows.

Won't comment on HOU/INDY, quite obvious the line would move towards INDY once Watson went down with the ACL injury. Make your own assumptions in terms of game flow there.

If this has been helpful or if you want me to touch on anything else, please comment below. Sorry If the formatting is awful, as I do just about everything on mobile. Good luck in week 9.