Rethinking the Knicks Rebuild

TL;DR: If the Knicks keep this current rate of success up, and Kristaps Porzingis continues to assert himself as a superstar, it is worth discussing whether management should trade a first round pick to dump Noah's contract with the objective of making moves in the upcoming free agent class.

It's safe to say that coming into this season, expectations for this Knick team were very low. Many fans made clear that the goal this year should be to tank, so we can get a top 3 pick and build by stocking up on young talent.

Through the first 10 games, the Knicks have very much exceeded expectations. We're 6-1 in our last seven games. Many of our players are playing very well in their roles, and most importantly Kristaps Porzingis is cementing himself as an NBA superstar. Currently, the Knicks are tied for the third best record in the East. The Knicks ability to maintain the current level of play has some important implications for the rebuild.

First, as of now it clearly looks like the Knicks are not a bottom 3 team in the league. Unless the Knicks make an asset-gutting trade for a top 3 pick, or miss the play-offs and get very lucky in the lottery, they probably won't have a top three pick. This limits the level of talent we would be able to add to our young core in a rebuild.

Second, KP's current rise to superstar level, and his ability to sustain this level are also important. Porzingis looks like he can be a key piece on a championship team. Also, as we have seen, players of this level make a significant impact on convincing other star level players of coming to the team in free agency. This in consideration with the general appeal of New York City opens free agency as a very real option for completing a rebuild. Consider that Kyrie Irving had NY as a very real option on his trade list before we even knew KP could reach this level so soon.

The current bar on our ability to take advantage of the upcoming free agent class are the large contracts we have tied up in THJ, Kanter, and Noah. Of the three, Noah clearly has the least use to the team, but many view his contract as unmovable. However, a recent move may make it more likely that we can trade him.

Yesterday, Greg Monroe's expiring ~$17 million contract was traded to the Suns for Eric Bledsoe. Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN reported that Monroe is not apart of the Suns rebuilding plans, and they are looking to trade or by him out.

With the Knicks looking to miss out on a top 3 pick, and becoming a much more attractive free agent destination, it is worth discussing whether management should consider dumping Noah's contract with either this year's (or a future) first round draft pick for Monroe's expiring contract. We would clear up a significant amount of cap space, and try to get a current star in our line up through free agency.

There are benefits on both sides to a discussion on whether we should look to dump a big contract with a pick in anticipation of free agency. The free agent talent this upcoming season will possibly have some legitimate stars in it, including LeBron James, Paul George, Chris Paul, and DeMarcus Cousins. The problem is that most of these seem to have teams that they are more likely to choose next season (such as staying put, or going to LA).

If we keep the pick, we could get lucky and make the top 3, or get a talented addition in the 4-20 range. The most likely result is that we'll still be a few years off of being champion contenders while the rest of our young core grows.

Essentially, free agency is now a more feasible option for a rebuild, and there's a current opportunity to clear cap space to participate, but it will likely cost us a pick. I think it'd be worth having a discussion on what might be the better option.