Playoff Clinch Scenarios
To Clinch a Playoff Spot/Win Division
Win 1 of the next 4 games.
= OR =
DET + GB lose 1 of the next 4 games.
To Clinch a Bye
Win vs CAR and any other game + PHI win vs LAR. (Clinch after week 15)
= OR =
Win next 3.
To Clinch Homefield
Win next 4.
There are more scenarios for clinching homefield based on PHI and LAR winning/losing X games but there are too many to list. Most likely it will come down to Week 17. I'll update this or post updated ones after each week.
Posted Dec 9, 2017, 8:41 PM UTC · edited
4115
I hate to be that guy but winning out alone doesn't clinch the 1 seed for us. It's still possible for the Eagles SOV to overtake ours, but like 8 teams need to virtually run the table to do so.
If it's 8 teams need to run the table with a 1/4 of a season left, how do none of those teams play each other?
yeah, they do. what I should have said is that those 8 teams need to run the table in games that matter, of which there are 19 (I think).
when I looked at this earlier this week, I tried to determine all the games that still matter for determining our differential SOVs - for example the cowboys and giants play each other and the Eagles will have beaten both of them twice (if they win out). A few games between Eagles common opponents do actually matter because those teams will have had unequal losses to the Eagles, or will have also lost to us (the Rams, Panthers, and Redskins cancel out once, for instance). I think there's something wrong with my "magic number" but the games I have listed at the end are correct.
Got it. I saw that post but tbh it makes my brain hurt lol. Each week it should get way easier to find out what we need to get the #1 so thats good.
Winning out should clinch based on ESPN's reason for why we break the tie.
So if we win out that would still qualify. Am I missing something else?
Yeah ESPN is wrong on this one - doesn't seem to go down to the 4th tiebreaker. If both the Eagles and Vikings win out we'll be tied in the 3rd tiebreaker (common games) at 5-0.
You can create scenarios where both the Vikings and Eagles win out and the Eagles get the 1 seed in the NYT simulator. But if you just select the Eagles and Vikings winning out, they show us as having a 99% chance at the 1 seed, due to the extremely narrow odds of the Eagles SOV overtaking ours. The linked scenario involves the Giants beating the Redskins, Jets beating the Saints, Broncos beating the Chiefs, etc.
Yeah I'm gonna side with the NY Times doodad they got some real spazzes working over there for them.
If both teams win out, we are both 5-0 against common opponents (Bears, Redskins, Rams, Panthers) because we beat the Bears twice and they beat the Redskins twice.
Common opponent with Philly is Washington, LA, Chicago, Carolina. They are 4-0 (two against Washington), with LA tomorrow. We are 3-0 with Carolina and Chicago to go. If LA beats them tomorrow and we beat Carolina and Chicago, that's the only way we win common opponent with Philly. Otherwise we go to strength of victory which this guy is exaggerating the possibility of Philly's strength of victory catching up. Many of Philly's teams that they beat play each other (which means those games can't help or hurt their SoV) or they play them again (Dallas and Giants) so they don't want them to win in those games obviously. And we only have a couple games in the next 4 weeks that could weaken our strength of victory for the same reasons. I honestly don't know if its possible for Philly to catch up, it really might be impossible but at the very least, it is very, very unlikely.
Good thing the Eagles are losing to the Rams tomorrow!
skol rams brah
You're correct, but as it doesn't really matter for the upcoming week I went with the simple explanation. It's really too far out to give a 100% chance to clinch scenario without writing a giant paragraph that very few people will read.
To clinch Homefield
Win next 4 AND either:
1 Eagles loss
OR either 4 total losses from the Broncos, Cardinals, Chargers, Raiders, Redkins, Giants, Cowboys or 49ers, (excluding common games)
OR 4 total wins from the Bears, Bengals, Bucs, Browns, Falcons, Lions, Ravens or Packers (excluding their common games)
...or something like that. yeah, pretty convoluted.