Players at Each Position to Target and Avoid

I know this is my first post here, but I've been at this for awhile. Little background: I only play roto leagues (this write up will reflect that), I've done head to head before and just never really enjoyed it. The main league I'm in seemingly changes format every year (which at this point I've come to suspect is to keep me from winning). Some years we have 10 teams, some years it's been 11 and 12. We've gone from a 3 man keeper snake draft to now a 10 keeper auction draft. The only real consistent has been our drafting and stashing of prospects until they hit their minimums. Despite the constant changing, I have finished no lower than 2nd place since 2009 with 5 1st place finishes during that time. I only say that so you'll understand I'm not just talking out of my ass during these evaluations and that there has been sustained success in the way I go about drafting my teams.

One of my main strategies when deciding between a player simply comes down to youth. I tend to place a lot of value on younger hitters; 2nd-3rd year players who can really break out. Pitchers I go for youth as well but I don't really trust a pitcher until they get into their 3rd season.

You can call this a sleeper/bust list if you want, I don't like those terms. But for the most part these are going to be guys that are being overlooked or over valued in my opinion.

With that being said, here are guys that I'm targeting and avoiding at each position:

Catcher: Target- Mike Zunino- The K are a concern for me, but at 202 ADP you're getting huge value. I think his days of bouncing back and forth to the minors are over. His K % is a little misleading I think. In the majors he's always been in the 30s, but in the minors he has always sat well below that. That doesn't tell me that this is a guy that simply has a problem making contact, but more so a guy that has just been fooled by big league pitchers more often. He's still only 26, if he can stop getting fooled as much, a 270 BA is not out of the question with 30 HR potential, then you're talking about him as maybe the 3rd or 4th C off the board.

Francisco Mejia- I already told you I'm big on young hitters. I'm a big Mejia fan. He may take his bumps and bruises early on but he projects as a real good hitter. I only really look for simple production out of my C. I don't over reach for guys at the top unless they're putting up comparable numbers to other position players and they typically don't. Mejia may never hit 20 HR but with a consistent 20+% LD rate a low K rate and BABIP that doesn't really scream anomaly to me he's perfect at his 234 ADP. I took 2nd last year with a platoon of Matt Weiters (at the start), Tyler Flowers, Jorge Alfaro , Wellington Castillo and Robinson Chirinos; you don't need massive production from this position just guys that will keep you above water and won't drag your team down.

Jorge Alfaro- Basically the same concept as Mejia. Young hitter, high upside, elite prospect pedigree. Alfaro I think is a little less risky than Mejia because he has already produced at the ML level albeit abbreviated, and has a little more pop in his bat. His BB/K ratio leaves a lot to be desired though and he could nose dive at points during the season. But at a 270 ADP he's well worth the risks.

Tom Murphy- Just for pure upside alone. Draft him as a backup and if he can stay healthy and keep the job he could put up huge power numbers in Coors. Or target him on the waiver wire during the first couple weeks if he's getting enough ABs.

Avoid: Salvador Perez- Yes I'm aware he's been one of the best backstops in fantasy every year since 2013, but he's just too inconsistent for me. I've had him for a couple years, and the valleys that he goes through during the season are so detrimental to your Roto numbers. Which makes him basically a fantasy platoon player in my eyes, a guy to play with the right matchups or only when he's hot. And if I'm taking a guy I'm going to platoon, I'm not taking him at an ADP of 85.

Yasmani Grandal- He's not being drafted very high but this is a guy I'm avoiding all together. It just seems he's on the verge of falling completely out of favor in LA. The Dodgers seem enamored with Austin Barnes and Grandal could end up becoming an afterthought.

JT Realmuto- I don't really have a major reason for not liking him, I'm just not feeling the breakout. He's been consistent and the peripheral numbers don't scream regression, but I'm just not sold on him. Especially now that the Marlins have traded their entire lineup, how many good pitches is he going to see? If his BA drops into the 25-240 range, what are you really getting at an ADP of 112?

1B: Target- Anthony Rizzo- I know this one may seem obvious but at the back end of the second round or beginning of the third you're not paying a huge price for one of the most consistent hitters in baseball. Back to back seasons of 30HR 100 RBI production. He cut down his K and raised his BB totals by 20+ in each category. If he can continue that to go along with a Cubs lineup that should produce better all around he could eclipse his normal production.

Miguel Cabrera- I'm of the belief that last season was just a disastrous blip. I won't buy anything else until he goes out and falls on his face again. It isn't like he's been on some downward spiral for years now. Yes, the injuries have started to pile up but he's still produced. He's only a year removed from a full season of 316/393/563. I think he's still elite and if he can stay healthy should be able to churn out a season similar to 2016 and at an ADP of 83 that would be massive value.

Matt Olson- I'm not usually high on low BA high K guys but Olson catches my eye. He has a higher K rate but has always kept it below 25 for the most part, if he can get his LD rate up in the 20s like it was during 2015 and 2016 in the minors, he could realistically be a 260-265 hitter, and to go along with 30-40 bombs that would change his value immensely. The power is without question, he was able to churn out 24 in about half a season, 12 of which came at home.

Josh Bell- If I told you that a guy with an elite prospect pedigree hit 255/334/466 in his first full season in the bigs and hit 274 in the second half to go along with 27 HR and 90 RBI you'd probably say that guy is on the verge of a breakout correct? So why is Bell ranked so low? At an ADP of 167 and the 20th ranked 1B according to CBS he's one of my favorite guys to target in the middle-late rounds. You can get a 270 hitter with 30 HR and 100 RBI possibly.

Trey Mancini- His 352 BABIP suggests some BA regression coming this season. Even if that happens his numbers should still be pretty solid for a guy going 191 ADP. He boasts a good LD rate so I wouldn't expect it drop drastically. He still plays in hitter's park in a solid lineup. He's a pretty decent option once the top guys fall off the board.

Yonder Alonso- Man what this guy's career could have been had he been able to stick in the OF in Cincinnati. Buried in Petco and marred by injury after coming in as a top prospect, Alonso finally kind of broke out last year, albeit still in pitcher's parks in Oakland and Seattle. Now settled in Cleveland he will automatically have the most lineup protection he's ever had and will be playing his home games in a relatively hitter friendly park. His peripherals have remained the same throughout his career even the years he struggled. Health is a concern but he's worth a flier in the later rounds as a guy that can hit 30 HR and drive in plenty in that offense.

Dominic Smith, and AJ Reed are guys I would take a chance on as backups at the end of a draft. Elite prospect pedigrees.

Avoid- Buster Posey- This is only if you're drafting him with plans to use him as your 1B. He's still elite at the C position but he's never really had the power numbers to make him stand out among the 1b.

Ryan Zimmerman- Don't buy into his late career resurgence last season. Doesn't seem like many are, and a drop off is likely coming.

2B: Targets- Robinson Cano- This guy is probably on most people's bust lists. And if you're taking him as one of the top 3 2b off the board then I'm cool with that. But at an ADP of 84 he's not being drafted high. He's not going to go back to 2016 numbers, but he is what he was last year. And that's good enough for me as the 8th ranked 2b on CBS. I trust him a lot more than some of the guys ahead of him.

Rougned Odor- Most will probably shy away from him after they were snakebitten last season. Odor's main issue has been his rising K rate, going up each of his 3 full seasons. He's never going to take walks, that's something that is set in stone. But if he can get his K rate back down to 17% like his first full season he's a productive as hell 2b again, who despite his struggles still hit 30 HR last season. His BABIP has never been high during his whole career so I'm willing to be he's more of the 260-270 hitter we say in 2015 and 2016 than last year's 204.

Eduardo Nunez- If he can stay on the field, he'd be a pretty elite option because of his ability to play multiple positions. Since going to Boston he showed a real propensity for being able to pop the ball off the monster, something that will be allow him to sustain a high BABIP. Playing in the potent Red Sox lineup should give him ample RBI and R opportunities. With an ADP of 103 he is well worth the injury risk after the top guys are gone.

Ozzie Albies- The guy just hits. He sports a consistently high LD rate and relatively low K rate for his whole minor league career. The only thing in question is his power, but a deeper looks shows an ISO of 156 in AAA and 171 in the majors last season. That means we might see him start to tap into some undeveloped power this season and if that happens he could end up being a 20/20 guy and a top option at 2b.

DJ LeMahieu- I'm not going to go out of my way to get this guy, but if he's around late and I need a 2b I'll be very content with him. 2b is another position like C where I'll be content with a guy that's not going to drag my numbers down.

Yoan Moncada- Bet on the prospect pedigree. The Sox lineup should be improved as well allowing him more opportunities for run production.

Ian Happ- Tough one here, he really doesn't have a guaranteed position but at some point he's going to force Heyward to the bench. He's just too good of a hitter to keep out of the lineup. He should get enough AB to make a fantasy impact. At an ADP of 136 you could be getting 25 HR value at a prime position if that happens.

Jason Kipnis- I'm banking on last year's struggles to be injury based. I've never been very high on him but at an ADP of 203 he's well worth the risk.

Jose Peraza- At only 23 years old after his first real full time season, there's no reason he can't hit 300 and steal 30+bases. If he can do that he's worth a flier at ADP 221.

Devon Travis- Is he going to stay healthy? Probably not. But at ADP 303 or even the first couple weeks of FA he's worth the gamble.

Avoid- Jose Ramirez- I'm not saying I think last season was a fluke and that he's going to fall off. I'm just not drafting him in the 2nd round. I think that's way too high for a guy that has one year of elite production under his belt.

Daniel Murphy- Rumors are he hasn't progressed as well from off-season microfracture surgery. If he has to miss any extended time at the start of the season that dampers his value. Plus, how confident are you in a 32 year old 2b immediately returning to old form after major knee surgery?

Whit Merrifield- His minor league numbers suggest the contact numbers he put up are sustainable, but the 19 HR he popped; I'm not so sure. His HR/FB ratio last year was 9.4%, historically he has been around 3%. If all he is is a 290 hitter that steals 30 bases with little power, are you drafting him at 68 overall? That's basically the same as Jose Peraza in my opinion.

Chris Taylor- Here's another major regression candidate for you. Last year's ISO was 208, he had only gone over 200 once in his career before that, his HR/FB was 15.8% he had only gotten over 10% one prior time in his career. His BABIP was also 361. Now, his K% was 25 which is about standard for him and his BB% was on the lower side at 8.8%. All that tells me you're bound to see a significant drop in HR and possibly BA, however his LD rate was about on par for his career. Realistically 275-280 BA with 12-15 HR, and maybe 15 steals. Is that worth drafting at 109 ADP? Not for me.

SS: Target- Alex Bregman- Top prospect pedigree, really came on towards the end of the season and the playoffs and dual position eligible. What's not to like? And you can get him at the back end of the 3rd round.

Gleyber Torres- Whether or not he wins a job in Spring Training, this should be a guy you're at least stashing. He will eventually have multiple position eligibility and is just beginning to tap into his power potential. He could have a massive rookie season especially in that lineup.

Amed Rosario- He got his feet wet last year, look for him to take another step this season. I don't know if he'll ever be a big power guy but he can get you what you need out of SS.

Orlando Arcia- Hitting wise, his floor is what he did last season. There were no real deviations in his career numbers. He's still a young hitter and could very well take a jump. I'm willing to gamble on that potential at pick 205 when at the very worst you're going to get a guy that hits 280, 15 HR and 15+SB at a premium position.

Addison Russell- I'm sure at this point people are smashing the homer button because I'm high on all the Cubs' players. That's fine, you can sleep on them all you want. For the most part they're a bunch of U25 guys that are just tapping into their full potential. His 2017 didn't go according to plan, but then again neither did the entire team's until about August. His LD rate is still high, all he has to do is cut down on the strikeouts and he is easily a 270 hitter. That's something he had done tremendously until last year. I'm willing to bet he cuts that number down at ADP 231. Last year he dealt with injuries and a lot of personal drama, with those things out of the way and playing everyday in that lineup, he could be primed for a solid season.

Dansby Swanson- Not every rookie lights the world on fire in their first season. I don't think he'll ever be a power hitter and that limits his value, but he could easily put together a solid enough season to be a top 10 SS. I'll take that gamble on a top prospect at 282.

Avoid- Elvis Andrus- This is one I'm skeptical about. It's quite possible that Andrus finally tapped into some unforseen power potential as his ISO and HR/FB rate has gone up each of the last 2 seasons. I just don't know if I'm buying the 5% jump in HR/FB between the last two seasons. He's always been a decent fantasy producer offering up solid BA and SB, but when you add in the idea of him hitting 20-25 HR people are probably going to overdraft. And I'm not completely sold that the power is here to stay.

Xander Bogaerts- I think his player profile lies somewhere in the middle of his 2016 and 2017 seasons. He's probably never going to have a season where he just completely tanks, but he's never going to give you anything on an elite level either. And I think people may overdraft based on the name and not the production.

Trevor Story- I'd much rather take a high upside guy well below him than a guy that is going to hover around 250 with almost 200 K.

Zach Cozart- His BABIP rose over 300 for the first time in his career, subsequently his BA went over 250 for the first time in his career. His K rate stayed relatively the same. His HR/FB rate jumped 5%. And his ISO nearly doubled. So am I buying that he's a 295 hitter with 30 HR potential? No I am not. His BA should rest back around the high 250s.

3B: Target- Manny Machado- I don't think many are, but do not look too much into what he did last year. It was an aberration. He began turning it on in the second half, he's definitely the same player we saw the 2 years before that. Now that he's moving to SS and will have dual eligibility that makes him even more valuable as well.

Rafael Devers- His LD rate after reaching the majors last year was the lowest it's ever been in his career. He still had a 342 BABIP despite that. In this case, that's not an indication of luck, it is an indication that this guy just knows how to hit. Routinely hitting the ball to the left side will keep his BA high, along with a K% that is likely to come down to his normal levels and you're talking about an elite 3B. Picking that up at ADP 73 is a steal.

Maikel Franco- I'm sure many have given up on this once top prospect. Not me, not yet. There's too much talent to ignore here. His LD rate is not indicative of a guy that has a 234 BABIP. He cut down on the K last year and actually posted a pretty impressive number. So he's putting the ball in play a lot. He just hasn't had great luck up to this point. If that turns around in the slightest he's going to look like the player that made him a top prospect. Worth the flier at ADP 231.

Nick Senzel- Cincy has to give this guy a shot at some point, especially with the departure of Zach Cozart freeing up some infield playing time. He's a top prospect and worth the flier at the end of the draft or in FA.

Justin Turner- His advanced stats were actually slightly down from years past and he still put up the numbers he did. He dropped his K% way down and if he can sustain that newfound discipline along with everything else going back up, he's in for a huge season. Kind of being overlooked at ADP 63 in my opinion.

Evan Longoria- I like this for the simple fact of where he's being picked and ranked. A 203 ADP and the 20th 3B is too low in my opinion. He goes from being basically the only player in the Ray's lineup anyone was scared of to a pretty solid up and down lineup in San Fran. His park won't do him any favors out there but you have to think he's going to see the most quality pitches he has in years.

Avoid- Josh Donaldson- I think we're in the midst of seeing a gradual decline for Donaldson. The last 3 seasons he's seen regression in his K%, LD rate, and BABIP. His HR/FB ratio skyrocket last season which kind of saved him. I'm not saying he's standing at the cliff but he's on cruise control getting near. For a guy going in round 2-3 I'm staying away.

Anthony Rendon- Was what we saw last year a former top prospect finally breaking out? Eh. He dropped his K% which was a major factor in the uptick, but his LD rate fell and his HR/FB ratio increased. I'd say he's more of the player we saw in 2016. Still pretty damn good, but I'm not taking him at ADP 40 and as the 6th 3B off the board.

Miguel Sano- I actually really like Sano and think he could be a top five 3B if everything went right. But things aren't going right. He has a sexual assault allegation hanging over his head, a few injuries he's recovering from and reports are he showed up to camp overweight. I'm not saying he can't overcome these things and put up an elite level season, I'm just saying the deck is stacked against him and he may be a real risky pick.

Joey Gallo- I just don't have love for anyone that can't crack the Mendoza Line. You can scream about the 40 HR all you want, the 0-4 games piling up kill you in roto.

OF: Target- Mookie Betts- He suffered from bad batted ball luck last year with a 268 BABIP. Once that returns to 300 or higher you basically see the MVP caliber player back in full force.

Andrew Benintendi- He's so polished for a 23 year old second year player. In that offense he could take the step to elite level this year and can be had around the 44th pick.

Christian Yelich- The one thing that has held Yelich back from being a fantasy stud his career is his lack of power. If you look at his home/road splits that was large in part due to his home ballpark. Yes I know, Stanton hit 50 HR playing there, that's a different player. He'd be hitting them out of Ebbets Field if it were still around. Yelich isn't hitting 450 foot moonshots. Take him out of Miami and into a hitter friendly Miller Park, there's an outside chance he could hit 30 HR. And that puts him in a different category fantasy wise because he already does everything else so well.

Byron Buxton- He was scorching hot to end the season last year, and while we've kind of seen that out of him before it was still a different level. You have to bet on the potential here. Even if he doesn't drastically improve on last year's numbers, he's at least a 260 hitter with 20 HR and 30+SB. Not too shabby for a guy ranked as the 21st OF.

Yoenis Cespedes- You just basically gotta hope for health for him. He's been the same player since he got to the Mets, no reason to think that changes. As the 24th OF, that's worth the risk.

Ryan Braun- His advanced stats have remained consistent every year even through his down years. He suffered from a sub 300 BABIP last year for the first time since, well ever as a matter of fact. But his LD rate, K% and BB rate all remained around the same. His HR/FB ratio dipped over 10%. He's due for a stat correction and should return to 300 BA 30 HR 100 RBI form. Steeply undervalued as the 26th ranked OF.

Ronald Acuna- He's lit up the minors at every stop, he's lighting up Spring Training, there's no reason to think he won't do the same in the majors. You may have to wait a couple weeks while Atlanta buys another year of team control, but he will be well worth it once he gets up.

Kyle Schwarber- Yeah, yeah I'm a homer. You have to like what you're seeing out of him though. He slimmed down and got more athletic which should help him in the OF, which in turn means more playing time. You have to decide which Schwarber you think you're getting. The one from the first half last year who was pressing and batting leadoff which he had never done or the one after his AAA recall that was more relaxed and hit 253/335/559 with 17 HR. My money is the on the latter. He was overvalued last year, this year I think he's undervalued as the 40th ranked OF.

Nomar Mazara- I don't have any great advanced stats to sell him. I just like the guy, I think he's real talented, still 22 years old and playing in a hitter's ballpark. I'll take the flier with him as the 52nd ranked OF.

Manuel Margot- If he can drop his K%, you're basically looking at the same player from last year except with a 290 BA instead of 260. He has 30 steal potential and his power numbers should hover around the low 20s. Worth the risk as the 54th OF.

Avoid- Tommy Pham- I've already read all the explanations on why his breakout year was no fluke and why he's here to stay. Until I see him do it again, I'm not all in. Especially when he's being drafted 49th overall and as the 10th OF. Too much of a gamble for me at that point.

Marcell Ozuna- Not saying I think he's bad or that he'll completely regress I just don't think he's quite the player you saw last year and will be over drafted. His HR/FB ratio and ISO both increased dramatically last year, leading me to believe he's not really a 37 HR guy, more like the 23 HR guy we saw in 2016. At about 50th overall that's just not worth it.

Justin Upton- Again, a guy a kind of like, but at the right price. And right now his price is too high. He's basically the same player he's been for the last 4 seasons now. 255-270, 30 HR, 80-100 RBI. Solid numbers, but as the 16th OF and 62 overall no thank you.

Adam Eaton- I've just never seen what he does for a fantasy team. He's not really being overvalued I just think you can probably get the same production on the waiver wire by a guy that gets hot.

SP: Target- Luis Severino- I think you're seeing the blossoming of a real ace. His velocity never wavered even as the season dragged on he was still pumping 98+.

Madison Bumgarner- Is this even worth saying? Apparently because he's the 7th ranked SP which is absurd to me. His injury was a freak accident and not something that should be a concern. He's the same pitcher, why are we down on him this year?

Noah Syndergaard- Going into last season he was arguably a top 5 SP. He got hurt like every Mets SP so I think everyone's a little gun shy. But if the reports are that he is 100% you have to take the risk because when he's on top of his game there aren't many who are better.

Yu Darvish- Homer alert again. He had a shitty postseason, fine. It was only the 3rd playoff appearance of his career, he just went to a new team and was contending for a WS. Is it possible that it was all a little too much for him? That's no excuse, but he's still got all the tools to be a great SP. His average velocity still hovers around 95 so there's no indication of him falling off. Put him in usually pitcher friendly Wrigley Field and no longer having the pressure of being an ace and he could have a real great year.

Robbie Ray- The Humidor!

Chris Archer- His FIP suggests he's much better than the 4 ERA he's bolstered the last 2 seasons.

Jose Quintana- He's always been very consistent in every category minus wins. Now that he has a full season with a contender, 16-17 wins makes him much more valuable in fantasy.

Sonny Gray- I have my doubts about him pitching in Yankee Stadium but he held up after being traded last year. With the injury woes behind him and pitching for a contender he could put together a real nice season as the 22nd ranked SP.

Jon Lester- Some think he's teetering over the cliff I don't think so. Pitchers tend to struggle the next season after a deep playoff run. Veterans like Lester are no exception. He doesn't rely on overpowering stuff, more movement and pitch location. That blend usually allows guys to stay productive in the latter part of their careers. I think Lester will be just fine.

Zack Godley- Humidor! Plus an elite ground ball rate.

Aaron Nola- Top prospect pedigree, finally started rounding into form last season.

Luke Weaver- See above about Nola.

Blake Snell- One of my favorite guys this year. The key tell of when a pitching prospect is about to turn the corner is his walk rate. Most pitching prospects have issues with command when they get to the majors. Once they stop walking batters and hone down their command is when they really take the next step and become studs. Snell fits that bill. In the first half his BB/9 was 5.88, in the 2nd half he dropped that all the way to 2.91. If he has indeed put his command issues behind him, he's about to breakout.

Cole Hamels- I'll take the flier on him as the 50th ranked SP.

Sean Manaea- Top prospect pedigree, can get him in a late round, worth the risk.

Taijuan Walker- Humidor! This might effect him most as he's had troubles keeping the ball in the yard.

Jameson Taillon- He just got his first full season under his belt. He had moments where he really impressed. Look for him to build on that.

Sean Newcomb- There's a chance he begins the year in AAA but he's worth a stash. He too is reliant on command. If he gets that in check he has all the tools to be a top flight SP.

Avoid- Zack Greinke- Wait what about the humidor? Well, I'm seeing things like Greinke's velocity is down to 84-87 in Spring Training, uh that's not great. And I'm not putting him anywhere near the 5th SP slot until I hear that that's been rectified.

Justin Verlander- I think he's much better in Houston but are we sure he's completely over the issues that have troubled him in recent years? Not enough for me to draft him as the 6th SP and 37th overall.

Dallas Keuchel- SPs that go deep into playoff runs typically get off to slow starts the next year and/or just have downright bad years. I'm shying away from Dallas at 68 overall.

Chase Anderson- I don't think he's very good.

Gio Gonzalez- Regression candidate.

Shohei Otani- I just don't really have a great feeling about this guy. I think he's going to try and do too much right away DHing and Pitching.

RPs to me are a dime a dozen once you get outside of the elite ones. You typically will end up seeing a few guys that end up having great years on the waiver wire in the couple weeks so I'm real patient on that position. I don't feel the need to analyze it too much.