Hand Most Likely to Make the Nuts
fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-cross-the...Posted Apr 23, 2018, 3:12 PM UTC
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fivethirtyeight.com
so the idea here is that AKs makes a straight flush with QJTsss, while ATs can make one with KQJsss, QJ98ssss, J987ssss, and 9876ssss
I never really tried to solve this but I'm sure I would have missed that
6
Basically. I like to look at it like you block more nuts with ATs than AKs.
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Soo, always get in A10s pre if given the chance?
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Only if you play a game where only the nut hand wins.
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Statistically, if you played infinite numbers of hands, I think that is in fact what they're saying.
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No, that's not at all what they are saying... ATs doesn't have the highest chance of winning, it has the highest chance of being the nuts.
So if you're playing a game where you opponent gets to choose his hand on the river, then ATs is the best hand for you to have.
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Seems like the opposite end of spectrum of 72o.
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62o according to the article.
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Not true. The T makes more 1-card nut straights than the K.
Edit: *straight flushes
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You're right
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Can you make 1-card nut straights? If the board is 6789J, AT loses to QT
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I meant straight flushes, since there is only one ten of the suit
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It's also not that obvious how often top set is not the nuts. AA makes top set by the river nearly 20% of the time, and flushes only get there 6%. But the flush is the nuts on all non-paired boards that don't have a straight-flush, but top set is only nuts if there is no pair AND no flush AND no straight. It's easy to underestimate how often there is some sort of straight, because usually when you look at runouts there is no way anyone actually played the straight hand to the river. Like on 9AQ57, AA is not the nuts but every 86 is folding pre- or OTF so you don't even think about it when you see it.
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Last week the question was posed, what starting hand is most likely to make the nuts?
The answer is in, and it's ATs. How many of us got it right?