Hello everyone! I'm back to bring you my Newcomer Tier List analysis (idk what else to call this). In case you've missed my first couple posts, here is my breakdown for S-Tier and A-Tier.

As we starting getting further down the tier list, we’re going to see more third party characters. I am reminded of this Sakurai quote regarding third party representation back leading up to Brawl's release. (This is translated from Japanese)

1. While it’s true that we’ve added characters from other companies, it’s not going to be anyone and everyone. Smash is a game that’s made from everyone’s effort.
2. Both companies have to want the character to join the battle. I need them to let me take charge of the character. In order to fit the character into the world of Smash, I need them to allow me some artistic license.
3. The character must carry game history with them. Besides that, it might be something like a courtesy to include a character that has the experience of being on a Nintendo platform."

It’s clear that there is a high level of scrutiny when deciding on these reps. So far we have Sonic, Snake, Pacman, Mega Man, Cloud, Ryu and Bayonetta. Outside of maybe Bayonetta, these characters are instantly recognizable and have a deep-rooted history in gaming culture. There also needs to be an agreement with the developer to both include the character and allow Sakurai and team to have some “artistic license.” I find that piece interesting that the development of a third party smash character isn’t as collaborative as one might think.

Extrapolating that into this tier list, third party characters that don’t follow these guidelines will receive lower grades. Not so much that they aren’t worthy or wouldn’t be great additions to the game, but we have to look at more than just fit. Nintendo’s relationship with third party developers as well as a character’s relevance hold much more weight.

B-TIER - “SOLID CHOICES”

B-Tier is where we get into characters that have some good resumes, but might have one or two glaring issues that need to be examined. For some it might be the third party hurdle, others for game relevancy or even difficulty in adding them to Smash at all.

Paper Mario

Is the character easy to integrate into Smash? – There's a lot that could be used for Paper Mario based on the gameplay, but also a lot of "paper" and 2D gimmicks that could be used as well that I wish were used for G&W.

Is this a character that Nintendo can actually use for Smash? – Paper Mario is actually made by the same studio as the Fire Emblem games. TIL. Should be fine here.

How frequent/recent has this character appeared in games? – There have been 5 Paper Mario games to date, starting with the 2000 release on the N64. The last one came out in 2016 for the WiiU. There does appear to be movement on a Switch Paper Mario installment upcoming as well.

Is this character revered in the gaming community and wanted in Smash? – Paper Mario sort of took the baton from SMRPG as the Mario RPG title of choice. Considering Nintendo is still pumping these games out, there is a reverence for Paper Mario, though I'm not sure it is very strong for Smash.

Are there other leaks/rumors/tidbits that could swing the tide? – Not much here, though there were three Paper Mario stages for SSB4 for 3DS: Hither Thither Hill, S.S. Flavion and Bowser's Sky Castle. As of yet, we have not seen confirmation of either of the three appearing in SSBU. Perhaps we are awaiting a Paper Mario announcement before that is confirmed?

Conclusion – Paper Mario seems like a natural addition given its popularity and could be a fun addition, though we might run into Mario overload like we are with Link and (potentially) Samus.

Ninten

Is the character easy to integrate into Smash? – Most feel that the inclusion of Ninten would be as an Echo to Ness, which makes sense. Ninten is actually a support based character in the Mother series, so building an attack suite for him would be a stretch. Since there were some liberties taken with Ness in development, they can certainly do that for Ninten.

Is this a character that Nintendo can actually use for Smash? – Interestingly, the dev team who worked on the Mother series also works on a lot of Pokemon games. TIL again.

How frequent/recent has this character appeared in games? – Ninten has only appeared in the first installment of the Mother series, which was released in 1989. Ninten, Ness (Mother 2) and Lucas (Mother 3) are the main protagonists in their respective games.

Is this character revered in the gaming community and wanted in Smash? – I have trouble gauging how popular the Mother series really is. It was a game I was never really aware of until I was introduced to Ness and Lucas, and even still I didn't really understand what the game was even about. That being said, there is a demand for Mother reps in Smash and having the main character in the first game makes sense.

Are there other leaks/rumors/tidbits that could swing the tide? – Nothing really. Ninten does make an appearance in the SSB4 for 3DS stage Magicant, which is supposed to portray Ninten several times. There was also a very vague rumor that Ninten would be included in Brawl, but that was swiftly debunked.

Conclusion – I think Ninten is a perfect example of what an Echo Fighter should look like in SSBU. Ness and him are near identical, but with differing appearances and storylines. Ninten's issue is the relevance of the Mother series to Nintendo and whether or not adding a character who appeared in a singular game in the 80's makes sense to them.

Shadow the Hedgehog

Is the character easy to integrate into Smash? – Shadow would almost certainly appear as an Echo for Sonic, so they would probably reskin and recolor a lot of the graphics to match Shadow’s palette. At the very most, they might do a “Dr. Mario” build where Shadow is almost identical with some changes to the physics.

Is this a character that Nintendo can actually use for Smash? – Sega owns the IP for Shadow, but he has made an appearance in previous Smash games, along with being apart of the “Mario vs Sonic” series of games as well. He’s fairly well integrated with Nintendo so my thought is that his inclusion would be pretty painless as far as a third party character goes. The question mark is if Sonic warrants two characters from the franchise, which would be a first for a third party franchise. On top of that, he would only be an Echo character. Why would Sega work to get Shadow included in Smash when he is just going to show up as a reskinned version of Sonic? Is it worth the contractual hassle?

How frequent/recent has this character appeared in games? – Shadow was created in 2001 for Sonic Adventure 2 to be a direct foil for Sonic. Ever since, Shadow has been a mainstay in the Sonic franchise, appearing in almost every Sonic game since. He even got his own game in 2005. He also appears in the Mario vs Sonic series and in various Sega party games.

Is this character revered in the gaming community and wanted in Smash? – Sonic is a huge franchise, needless to say. You could suggest Tails, Knuckles, Dr. Eggman or Shadow as a possible Smash character and you would find people who would be all for it.

Are there other leaks/rumors/tidbits that could swing the tide? – Shadow used to be an AT in both Brawl and SSB4, but has yet to be confirmed in SSBU. We also have confirmed that Knuckles is an AT in SSBU, leading some to believe that Shadow has graduated to the main roster.

Conclusion – Everything I mention above is wildly positive for Shadow to make the team. If he was Nintendo IP, he’d be an S or an A. My issue with Shadow would be the unprecedentedness of his inclusion. I just don’t know if the juice is worth the squeeze for Nintendo or Sega.

Isaac

Is the character easy to integrate into Smash? – A combination of sword attacks and utility Psynergy abilities give Isaac a good place to start for a moveset. We do see Isaac use the Move ability as an AT in Brawl.

Is this a character that Nintendo can actually use for Smash? – I would call Isaac a second party character. Golden Sun is developed by Camelot who did a lot of work with Sega in the 90’s regarding the Shining Force franchise. They partnered with Nintendo to develop Mario Tennis and Mario Golf, along with Golden Sun.

How frequent/recent has this character appeared in games? – Isaac, while present in all three Golden Sun games, is featured as the protagonist in only the first Golden Sun game. He appears in the second game, The Lost Age, sparingly as the game focuses on Felix. The third game, Dark Dawn, focuses on Isaac’s son and rarely shows the adult Isaac.

Is this character revered in the gaming community and wanted in Smash? – Isaac is certainly the face of the Golden Sun franchise. Perhaps I do have bias, but Golden Sun was a big game when it came out. While the span of the game is lacking, it is definitely a series with a dedicated fanbase.

Are there other leaks/rumors/tidbits that could swing the tide? – Isaac was an AT in Brawl, but was not continued in SSB4. If he was included in SSB4, then there might be more hype, but alas. What Isaac has going for him most is how long people have been clamoring for his inclusion.

Conclusion – My worry for Isaac is his lack of recent Golden Sun games. While I don’t see it as a death knell for his inclusion, his absence in SSB4 was fairly telling that Nintendo may not weigh Golden Sun as much as its fanbase. However, Camelot’s close relationship with Nintendo along with a lot of fan support could push him over the edge. I wouldn’t write him off so quickly.

Rayman

Is the character easy to integrate into Smash? – Rayman already fits the 2D combat style and already has some unique abilities given his missing arms and legs. Perhaps there could be some Rabbid representation here too, but he definitely has the building blocks for a fun character.

Is this a character that Nintendo can actually use for Smash? – Rayman is owned by Ubisoft, who has been collaborating with Nintendo much more openly with games like Mario + Rabbids and the new Starlink game which will feature Fox. The relationship between the two companies is about as strong as it has been.

How frequent/recent has this character appeared in games? – Rayman is, obviously, the protagonist in the Rayman series. There have been quite a lot of sequels and spinoffs for this title, which was kicked off in 1995. The last full Rayman game was released in 2013.

Is this character revered in the gaming community and wanted in Smash? – I mean, Ubisoft made a tv show for Rayman after the release of Rayman 2. That kind of demonstrates the popularity of Rayman. He always felt like a character that would work well for Smash, but was unrealistic due to Ubisoft owning the IP.

Are there other leaks/rumors/tidbits that could swing the tide? – There was a big rumor for his inclusion for SSB4, but was throughly debunked. He instead only appeared as a trophy. That hasn't diminished the hype for Rayman with this development of Mario + Rabbids.

Conclusion – I think Rayman fits Sakurai's criteria for third party characters very well. Ubisoft and Nintendo are especially close right now. I still think it's a tough call but I'd say Rayman is a big favorite for a third party bid.

Impa

Is the character easy to integrate into Smash? – My assumption is that Impa would follow the Hyrule Warriors/OoT/SS build, which basically provides the moveset using her big ass sword and Sheikah shenanigans. She has only appeared as a combat focused character a few times, as she has many different forms throughout the series.

Is this a character that Nintendo can actually use for Smash? – She is a LoZ character, so no issues there.

How frequent/recent has this character appeared in games? – Impa has been a constant through most of the LoZ games including TLoZ and BOTW, appearing differently in each iteration; sometimes as an old woman, sometimes as a young warrior.

Is this character revered in the gaming community and wanted in Smash? – Impa is one of the more popular characters in LoZ outside of the Triforce (Link, Zelda, Ganon). Her and Skull Kid are probably the most requested from the series.

Are there other leaks/rumors/tidbits that could swing the tide? – She has a couple trophies in SSB4. Otherwise, there isn't anything else here.

Conclusion – I think if we see a legacy LoZ inclusion, Impa is probably a slight favorite over Skull Kid, though I worry that she will end up fighting like Sheik but with a big sword which doesn't feel particularly unique.

Champion from BOTW

[This includes the main Champions from BOTW (Daruk, Mipha, Revali, and Urbosa) as well as the warriors from each village that help you in game (Yunobo, Sidon, Teba and Riju). Since it really could be any of these characters, this argument is just a general argument for a BOTW Champion]

Is the character easy to integrate into Smash? – The Champions in BOTW are warriors, each having a unique fighting style depending on their race. Daruk and Yunobo use brute strength, Mipha and Sidon use water attacks and tridents, Urbosa and Riju use the sword and shield approach, and Revali and Teba rely on aerial attacks. Any of these would be a fair fighting style for Smash.

Is this a character that Nintendo can actually use for Smash? – Characters from an LoZ game? Yes indeed!

How frequent/recent has this character appeared in games? – These characters are only seen in BOTW, which is the newest installment of the Zelda franchise.

Is this character revered in the gaming community and wanted in Smash? – Some more than others, though as a collective they’ve relatively well received. Since they don’t span multiple games like Impa or Skull Kid, it’s hard for me to say they are more beloved than them. However, the Champions do have recency bias on their side.

Are there other leaks/rumors/tidbits that could swing the tide? – Nothing really here. We do have the Great Plateau Tower stage, which gives a nod to BOTW representation. We also have the new Champion tunic skin for Link as well. BOTW is pretty well represented, so are we sort of at critical mass?

Conclusion – I think we will likely see a Champion in some form, probably Daruk or Urbosa or Sidon, and based on the amount of BOTW representation, I think they will appear as an AT. That being said, BOTW is fucking huge and it would not surprise me if Nintendo tries to get as much out of the game as possible. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Champion gets in.

Chibi-Robo

[Thanks to u/Brewster_The_Pigeon for some helpful info in an earlier post. Admittedly I am unfamiliar with Chibi-Robo, so I appreciate the take here.]

Is the character easy to integrate into Smash? – There are quite a few games to pull moves from for Chibi-Robo, including a 2D fighter that fits the Smash gameplay style. Definitely could have a fun moveset in game, especially shenanigans with the electrical plug

Is this a character that Nintendo can actually use for Smash? – Chibi-Robo falls under the 2nd party description. The IP is owned by skip LTD, but publishes exclusively with Nintendo. It also helps that the devs of Chibi-Robo support its inclusion.

How frequent/recent has this character appeared in games? – Chibi-Robo has appeared in five total games, one of which was a Japan only release. The latest game, Zip Lash, was released in late 2015, with an amiibo for Chibi-Robo as well.

Is this character revered in the gaming community and wanted in Smash? – Tough to say. The Chibi-Robo is a fairly popular franchise in some respects, but it doesn’t quite compete with some of your upper echelon franchises. In terms of untapped Nintendo IPs, Chibi-Robo is probably near the top of the list.

Are there other leaks/rumors/tidbits that could swing the tide? –Some trophy and sticker appearances in past Smash games is really all we have. Important to note that the release date of Zip Lash does match up favorably with when Sakurai and friends were finalizing the roster for SSBU. Just saying.

Conclusion – I think Chibi-Robo has a better chance than some are giving it. There are mechanics that can be utilized from its games and has a pretty decent following, plus a favorable timeline. Don’t be too shocked here.

Heihachi Mishima

Is the character easy to integrate into Smash? – Apparently not, according to an interview with Sakurai regarding Heihachi’s consideration for Brawl. Heihachi does utilize a lot of 3D movement and combos in the Tekken series. That being said, I do think a lot of moves can be used, or at least modified to fit the 2D scheme. Plus since he’s been considered for such a long time, I feel like Bandai Namco could come up with a reasonable series of attacks for him.

Is this a character that Nintendo can actually use for Smash? – Bandai Namco is the owner of the Tekken franchise and, thus, Heihachi. However, Bandai Namco’s involvement in developing SSBU makes them a likely third party developer to have a representative. They already have Pac-Man in Smash as well. There are certainly a number of possible Bandai Namco franchises to pull from (Tales, SoulCalibur, Galaga, Dark Souls, Digimon, Tekken, etc.), but Heihachi seems the likeliest choice.

How frequent/recent has this character appeared in games? – Heihachi has been in numerous Tekken games dating back to 1994. His latest appearance in Tekken 7, which was released for PS4 and Xbox One in 2017 but was available in Japan as early as 2015, should be his last as he was “killed when Kazuya damages his heart with a devil-powered punch to the chest and his body is subsequently thrown into a river of molten lava.” I’m curious about how many characters in Smash are dead in their respective franchises.

Is this character revered in the gaming community and wanted in Smash? – Heihachi is definitely one of, if not the, most popular character in the Tekken series, which is one of the seminal fighting franchises in video games. His inclusion would be welcomed in the gaming community wholeheartedly.

Are there other leaks/rumors/tidbits that could swing the tide? – Sakurai has thrown Heihachi’s name around both for Brawl and SSB4, citing difficulty in adapting his Tekken moveset, and has also been included in SSB4 as a Mii costume. There are also connections between Heihachi and Link (SC2), Pac-Man (Bandai Namco) and Ryu (Namco × Capcom, Street Fighter X Tekken and Project X Zone).

Conclusion – While Heihachi wouldn’t be my personal choice for a Tekken rep (gimme King or EDDY GORDO), he definitely the favorite from the series. I’d also call Heihachi the favorite for the Bandai Namco rep, which I do think will happen either in main game or as a DLC.

Chorus Kids

Is the character easy to integrate into Smash? – I’m pretty unsure how Chorus Kids would work in Smash. Are all three going to walk around like Ice Climbers style? Will they work like Duck Hunt? Maybe like PT where the two stand off to the side and assist the main when needed? That much is unknown, though not impossible. I imagine Chorus Kids specials to be like Exploud from Pokemon, utilizing sonicbooms and sound to attacks opponents. I also see Chorus Kids becoming the most memed character if that is the case.

Is this a character that Nintendo can actually use for Smash? – Nintendo developed and published Rhythm Heaven, so not a problem.

How frequent/recent has this character appeared in games? – The first Rhythm Heaven game was released on GBA in Japan only in 2006, with three more games being released afterwards to the US. The latest game, Megamix, was released 2015 in Japan and 2016 everywhere else. Chorus Kids have been a mainstay in each of those games.

Is this character revered in the gaming community and wanted in Smash? – Like Chibi-Robo!, Rhythm Heaven is a game that has a pretty decent following but has yet to be tapped into for Smash. Rhythm Heaven has a ton of characters, but Chorus Kids are one of the more popular ones.

Are there other leaks/rumors/tidbits that could swing the tide? – Rhythm Heaven had many reps in the SSB4 for 3DS game, namely trophies, songs, and Sneaky Spirits appearing in Smash Run. The biggest link for Chorus Kids was the infamous Gematsu leak for SSB4. The leak, while widely disproven over time, said that Chorus Kids would be in the final game, along with Chrom, which was disproven as well. In addition, there is Rhythm Heaven data for a character icon in SSB4 that was not used.

Conclusion – I think Chorus Kids would be a very unique addition to the game. It’s clear Nintendo has favored Rhythm Heaven over other franchises lately, so a character addition for Smash would be the craziest thought. I worry about their viability in combat and if there might be a better rep for the franchise, like Karate Joe perhaps.