Price Changes
[removed]
Posted Aug 18, 2018, 12:01 AM UTC
09
If you want to keep him, then you think he’ll do well. If he does well, people will bring him in. If people bring him in, his price will increase.
1
yeah i know, but my belief isnt that strong. I had 6m for the last player and didnt think rationally enough. Went for gut but wasn't the best decision.
I'd rather not lose money on him now as my team will change a lot in the future
0
Really sorry for the extra post.
I made an emotional decision
Checks out.
Kidding. Anyway -- real answers:
- Will he survive / the tool: the predictions are going to a bit off as the site figures out if FPL tweaked the price change algorithm and how it works, so -97 is probably more like -97 +/- 25. So, no idea. The tool usually gets it right within +/- ~10 as the season progresses, with notable exceptions being popular WC / FH weeks. If he's -97 today and doesn't drop, he will start where he left off at -97 tomorrow. The main difference tomorrow would be that you'll gain a FT before tomorrow's change time. So you would face the same conundrum tomorrow.
- Strategy: if you want to keep him it doesn't really matter, because that money isn't usable elsewhere anyway. If you really think he's going to have a good season, he will definitely get bandwagoned and rise in back up to at least the 0.1 you would lose in TV if he dropped tonight. This loss in TV doesn't matter unless you want to use it -- that is, the reason you would be worried is if you're planning to sell and your current selling price (before the drop) is exactly what you need to help you fund the cost of your intended replacement. At that point, you might consider pulling the trigger early so that you don't get priced out of the transfer.
1
Thanks so much mate! It’s more that after Totty he had 2 more easier games for points. I have plans for upgrades and Kenedy to bring in after his United game. So schurrle wasn’t a set and forget, thus I couldn’t really have him dropping value.
I want 2 transfers next week for 2 different players before schurrle was scheduled to leave, so just wanted to know the price predictor accuracy above 95 (for which Schurrle was).
Stuck with him and he seems to have survived another day. Cheers for the response though chap!
1
No problem, and congratulations -- it looks like he survived through the night.
1
It's calculated guesswork at the start of the season as they have to base the price change thresholds off last season until they get more data.
Fantasy football fix have him as very likely to drop tonight
yeah sorry for the extra post, i dont want to give him up but will if he'll drop. In your experience if they have worse than -95 rating, will they go down?
I don't know what you're looking at but it is likely he will drop tonight. If you think he is likely to score and you intend to keep him then him dropping in price won't matter
http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/