Picked as dogs for two weeks in a row? What’s the deal? Am I looking at this wrong?
Posted Sep 7, 2018, 3:53 AM UTC
1830
With -14, the bookies are begging people to bet on Colorado State to cover. If I wanted people to bet Colorado State I would probably show some weird predictive score algorithm that said they would do more than cover that they would then win.
6
This model is broken, it’s possible it’s heavily influence by last season, but either way we now have 2 straight weeks of inconceivable predictions. I put 0 stock in anything this site says as a prediction.
3
If u want to just look at odds, use Pinnacle sports or even bovada (inflated always). Odd shark will list them but then they always do that stupid prediction that is never right and never makes sense...
3
We were 35.5 pt favorites last week
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Everyone thought this system was broken. Looks like it was correct unfortunately...
2
This coaching staff is absolutely clueless. Our players didn’t always execute like they should but if we hand the ball off every play and don’t punt on 4th and 1 this game would have been completely different.
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Pretty accurate
2
First, we are unproven.
Second, you have to take into effect that we are @ Colorado State.. playing at 5000 ft. A lot of Colorado teams get some extra points in the betting window because of this. We are likely to get tired very quickly, which with no running game could prove dangerous.
0†
No, the sim is broken. Instead of trying to reason our way into justifying a ridiculous prediction, we could can easily see the sim is broken.
3
Be careful thinking CSU is a for sure win... I could definitely see it being a close one and potential loss...
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CSU is not set up to upset anyone with their entire starting lineup turning over from last year.
Even if that weren’t the case, we now have seen a +1 vs FCS EIU and +3 vs an 0-2 MW team, it’s obvious it’s broken.
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Lol hate to say I told you so but......... I told you so....
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I'd say that pretty much explains the predicted score shown. bookies are hoping people see this and bet CSU.
2
Agreed. I don't know when the team arrived in Colorado but I'd have to assume it was sometime earlier this week so that they could practice at the elevation...
2
Nope they are heading up there as we speak
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Great
1
Well, -14 means we are 14 point favorites... Not sure how we can be 14 point favorites but be predicted to lose? lol
This link from ESPN tells a different story
Gotcha. I’ll be the first to admit I’ve never known how to read these things beyond who’s picked to win. I honestly kinda wish we were actually picked as dogs... It might be the extra motivation the team needs to completely demolish CSU.
So there’s three parts to this.
Whether a team will win, pretty straightforward.
Whether they’ll cover the spread (it says -14, so can Arkansas beat CSU by more than that? Or can CSU make it a closer game)
Whether they will go over or under the total (70 points combined. If Hogs picked to win by 14 the final should be 42-28. Neither team has a stout defense so that doesn’t seem too far fetched to me?)
There’s another part called the money line which tells you how much money you’d get if the team wins but it’s not part of this graphic.
The + team is the dog, the - team is the favorite
Why does the predicted score show Arkansas losing?
I have no idea their model must suck