Source
r/poker•
Cappei

25nl Hand Analysis in a 3b pot with AKo as the non 3bettor .

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UTG (UTG): 115.08 BB (VPIP: 16.25, PFR: 12.82, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 83)

Hero (MP+1): 135.76 BB

CO (CO): 202.24 BB (VPIP: 9.76, PFR: 9.76, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 41)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BBDealt to Hero: AcKdfold, UTG+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, CO raises to 13 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 10 BB

Thoughts: I should have 3b pre, but UTG+1 seemed tight and most of the people behind had low 3b frequencies, so I opted to call and take my drawing hand post flop ;). I also wanted to induce some over calls and be able to call a 3b behind. With the large 3b from the CU (Assumed range: TT+, ATs+, A5s-A4s, KQs, AJo+) and the line I am taking I figured if I 4b here I only get called by 1010+ and other AK, maybe AQs and KQs. As played, should I 4b here?

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Flop (30.4 BB, 2 players):AsJsQcHero checks, CO bets 14.44 BB, Hero calls 14.44 BBThoughts: Well, I have TPTK, but I lose to pretty much any Ax he 3b with and I am in bad shape against most other holdings. Still, I could be ahead of ATs or some of the wheels. Could also be KK, TT, or KQ. I also have 7 (K or 10) outs against his AQ or AJ. I decide to call and reevaluate on the turn.

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Turn (59.28 BB, 2 players):KhHero checks, CO bets 28.16 BB, Hero raises to 108.32 BB and is all-in, CO calls 80.16 BB

Thoughts: I improved and hit one of my possible "outs", thought I could still be really far behind. I think he is likely to still value bet AQ and AJ as AK is not likely in my range. I now lose to 1010 and sets (which he has all of them in his range). I opt check raise all in to get value for AQ and AJ as I figure they make up enough of his range here. Does he likely fold these fearing I have a 10? Assuming he calls, I lose to 17 hands and can get value from 18. I also chop with other AK which is 4 combos. The 17 combos I lose to, I still have some equity against 15 of them. Maybe I can get him to lay down JJ? ( I think very unlikely) These were my thoughts at the time of the hand. Looking back, I now feel like I made a not so good bluff with a hand that has some showdown.

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Any additional thoughts on how I should have played it differently? Will post results later today.

Posted Oct 31, 2018, 5:16 PM UTC · edited

111
Stoicas•

3b pre. Fold the turn. This guy literally 3b JJ+ and AQ+. You still should have JJ and ATs to call off with.

4
JohnHalsey•

First of all, i play micros max NL10 and i only play as a hobby.

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At micros i always 3bet/squeeze with AK pre.

After you call an open raise, i'm not sure villain squeeze range it's as wide as you make it.

Looking at his stats, i think he would flat 88-TT and even JJ and squeeze with QQ+ and AK/AKs and maybe AQs. Everything else, AJo+, any suited ATs-AJs, KQs-KJs are probably in his flatting range. It's possible he would 3bet with ATs-AJs, KQs but he seems very very tight.

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OTF i would also x/c. We have TPTK but the board it's very very wet so pot control it's fine.

OTT you made top two but now loose to all the sets in his squeeze range.

You block AA, KK, AK so there aren't many combos left there but you still loose to QQ/JJ/TT.

Only bluff i see in his range .. AQs. If he wasn't that tight i would see KQs, KJs and AJs as bluffs and ATs as value.

Considering you only called pre and x/c flop, your hand it's under-repped so, x/r all in makes sense if you put him on a wider squeeze range.

I'm only afraid he is much tighter than that (3bet pre at 6.6% and vpip/pfr under 10%)

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(edit: so, yes, i would fold turn)

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1
CappeiOP•

Yea, I thought he was pretty tight here but notice he is really only putting in chips being the aggressor. I definitely lean towards 3b AK here, but for the reasons listed above I flatted. Probably due to some form of tilt since my last few raises with premiums where all getting folds. The range I listed is ~7%. This may be a bit wide, but only 40 hands so my stats on him may not be extremely accurate. Turns out his 3b range is likely wider than 7% base on his actual holding.

1
JohnHalsey•

Yep, that's the only thing. The number of hands played it's very small.

For that 3bet pre to be decent i think 250+ hands are needed because at a 6 handed table with 40 hands, he only had 20 or so opportunities and he only raised about 3 times ... pretty much useless sample.

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If in reality he is wider than that than x/r all it it's fine as he will have much more bluffs than value OTT.

2
Robertsno1•

I think preflop is an excellent spot to back-raise. It's a bizarre and often very strong play, but damn does it work. You're a little too deep to back-shove, but a raise to ~30BB would be pretty sweet.

1
CappeiOP•

I thought about doing this. My concern was I'd be left with about a 1.5 SPR and all but committed if I missed the flop. Maybe that would have made my decision easier as I'd probably jam flop and have the same result.

1
casanovafly•

results?

1
CappeiOP•

He called and turned over KsTs for the flopped straight and nut flush draw. River was Ad. GG EZ. Seriously tho, got lucky and am wondering if he was 3 betting light cause I was on a mini heater for a couple of hands and just hit a bdfd with a speculative holding the hand before (part of the reason I flatted AKo).

1
StreetSharksRulz•

Yeah, you butchered this pretty bad.

Pre: 3bet. Period. None of this "I don't want to scare people off" or "I was looking into my crystal ball and hoping to induce a 3bet" because you weren't and even if you were "inducing" it means you want someone with a weaker hand to bet so you can snap it off or raise. You don't "induce" calls from people in position on you preflop. It's not clever, it's not 4d chess, when you have a big hand you 3bet it. If you want to balance it out you ALSO 3bet hands like KTo or JTs not flat PFR with your monster hands or limp reraise etc. Flatting here and then flat calling a 3bet OOP is a major, major mistake.

Flop: Now you're in a bad spot because you tried to get tricky when you didn't need to. On the flop this is basically a call once and we're done if the turn isn't a miracle T or if the villain doesn't slow down. He's probably not barrelling off on a board texture that has about a billion possible strong hands with like....A5s.

Turn: ok now it got shittier, this is about the point where you should be thinking "wow this is why you don't put yourself into bad spots like this", but it's too late you're there. This is....close. Depends on how much you know about the villain. Probably 80% fold 20% call. So of course you chose door C which is "how much deeper can this whole I dug go?" You raise mostly to get worse hands to call, fold out stronger hands as a bluff etc. Well, there's 4 to a straight so unless you think AJ or AQ are calling a big raise on the turn in a 3bet pot in a spot where most players are bluffing exactly....none of the time, you're not getting worse to call. Everything better than you (which is pretty much everything. AA, JJ, QQ, KK, AT, QT, KT, JT for about a billion combos) is probably not folding to put it lightly.

Yes, I'm trying to be a dick but hopefully you get what I'm saying and it helps.

1
rihtorasti•

The flop is the only street you played right.

0
CappeiOP•

Helpful.

1