Price predictions mainnet launch

Yes, I see that possible with the right measures implemented. It is all about the number of tokens circulating at any point in time in the future.

With velocity sinks you can more or less effortlessly drive up the token price, if the project's fundemantals are solid. Among others, long-period lockup programs can achieve that. Permanent lockup (token burn) is even more effective of course.

So if network value grows over time or even remains constant, while fewer tokens change hands within the network, you get higher price per token. E.g. Binance has a buyback and burn program which will keep decreasing BNB tokens over the years. Covesting has a similar mechanism. Endor has a long-term lockup once the token is used for a prediction service. Many other projects adopt similar mechanisms.

The main risk for those projects is longevity of their offering. Binance didn't exist 2 years ago and may fade into oblivion in another 2 years, who knows? With a project that has a promising long-term future like Thekey, you can implement token lockups much more confidently and effectively.

If you have 100 million tokens each at $10, you have a network worth $1 bn. Through lockups, if you manage to halve your tokens for instance, the likely -but not precisely- outcome is that the price will be driven up to $20. You can repeat that halving cycle many more times, reducing circulating supply but increasing the price per token, everything else remaining constant.

You cannot do that with every project or token however. There is mad competition in open source blockchain. People can fork your code if you go overboard with the lockup and make it difficult for users to get their hands on the remaining, more scarce, tokens.

That risk doesn't seem to exist for Thekey because it is patent-protected and government-ordained. Also, since the tokens are divisible and the underlying network usage cost is in fiat, you don't get cost inflation either. TKY price may go off the roof without costing anyone using the IDV service more. Others on this subreddit explained this concept much better, I recommend you search and read them.

Unlike TheKey, I find that NEO's current pricing model is all wrong because it is priced in NEO Gas (I believe 500 Gas per contract). So if Gas price jumps up, it becomes very expensive for Dapps to deploy smart contracts on NEO. They would gravitate to competing, cheaper blockchains.

Thankfully, they announced that TKY's business model shall price the IDV service in Yuan. Actually they gave USD-priced examples in the latest AMA but I'm sure that was for the Western audience's ease of reference. So if a KYC service costs a local bank 10 Dollars, and TKY is 1 cent at that moment, the bank needs 1,000 TKY to effect that payment. We assume that will likely happen under the hood without any friction.

If TKY becomes $100 someday thanks to velocity sinks (imagine millions, not billions, of freely circulating tokens), that wouldn't negatively affect their network users (citizens, banks, companies, hospitals, etc.). 0.1 TKY would settle the same KYC service as the token is divisible.

Closing the segway on forking, it will be useless for developers to fork TheKey without the patents or government data access. Similarly, citizens will have no means of jumping ship and using another blockchain-based IDV service either.

In that respect, TheKey satisfies traditional value investors' moat metaphor perfectly. I expect a tsunami of FOMO into TKY once China allows exchanges or TKY goes on a bigger exchange like Binance or Coinbase.