Week 14 Full Breakdown
Philip Rivers $6,500
Leading off the QB plays this week is Philip Rivers who has been incredible this year and deserves to be mentioned in the MVP race. He’s completing passes at a 70 percent clip with 285 yards and 2 touchdowns per game. Not to mention a 115 QBR. All this and a matchup vs the Bengals? Sign me up. The Bengals are giving up the most points to quarterbacks per game and have the leagues 26th DVOA pass defense. I expect Melvin Gordon to miss this game so they will have to rely on Rivers arm a little more. The only concern would be game flow later on but I think we have a floor of 2 or 3 touchdowns through the air here.
Drew Brees $6,600
Next is Drew Brees who gets an excellent matchup vs Tampa Bay who is tied for first in passing touchdowns given up this year. He lit them up week 1 and I expect that to happen again. The Saints are looking for a big bounce back game after a disappointing loss in Dallas. The Bucs are giving up the 3rd most points per game to Quarterbacks and have the 32nd DVOA pass D in the league. They have also given up 28 passing touchdowns which is tied for most in the NFL.
Ben Roethlisberger $6,800
I really like Big Ben in this spot against Oakland. I’m pretty sure James Conner is going to miss this game and that should lead to an aerial attack vs the Raiders (even though they already throw the ball 50 times anyway). The Steelers defense is nothing special so I think the Raiders can stay relevant in the game long enough. The Raiders are a bottom 10 team in terms of giving up points to the QB position and are tied for first with Tampa Bay in passing touchdowns allowed. They have the 30th DVOA pass D and they have no one on their roster that can stop AB and Juju.
Aaron Rodgers $6,000
McCarthy is finally gone and I think this is a statement game by the Packers. He has been handicapping this team all year and I think we finally see some life from Rodgers and the Packers. Atlanta is giving up the 2nd most points to the QB position and have the 29th DVOA pass D. I know Rodgers hasn’t been as sharp this year but he still only has 1 interception and can definitely shred this Atlanta defense. Plus they always play better at home.
**Honarable Mention
Jameis Winston $6,000
Baker Mayfield $5,800
Cam Newton $6,300
Running Backs
High End
Alvin Kamara $8,100
This is my favorite play of the week going against Tampa Bay. CMC who has a similar skill set went for 35 for these guys and I think we see a big game from Super Kamario here. He torched them week 1 (Ingram was out) but he should still see near 20 touches which is good enough for me. Tampa is 27th DVOA vs the run and is giving up the 6th most points per game to RBs.
Christian McCaffrey $9,300
Up next is CMC who has just been incredible this 2nd half of the year. He’s on the field more than any running back in the league and he’s used in the passing game as well, what’s not to love? He gets another good matchup vs Cleveland who cannot stop anyone on the ground. The Texans were just gashing them at will last week and that’s with Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue. They are 25th DVOA vs the run and give up the 8th most points per game to RBs. They also give up the 5th most receiving yards per game to RB’s and there is no one better at that than McCaffrey.
Ezekiel Elliot $8,600
Another guy who’s been great is Zeke and now he gets to face off vs a Philli run D that just let AP go 90 on them. Zeke feasted last time they played with 40 points. I think we see more of the same at home. The Eagles have the 24th DVOA run D and the Cowboys line should be able to pave the way for him. He has also been heavily involved in the passing game which has given him a big boost.
Mid Range
Aaron Jones $7,200
McCarthy gone so huuuuuge boost to Aaron Jones as he should be done splitting snaps with Jamaal Williams. I think Jones should be priced in the 8k range and I’d still be tempted to use him so 7.2k seems like a steal. The Falcons are giving up the 3rd most points per game to RBs and have the 31st DVOA run D
Nick Chubb $6,700
He is somehow not 7k yet so you can just keep plugging him in your lineups. This guy has been incredible this year ranking only behind Melvin Gordon according to PFF. He is going to be involved in the passing game too so it gives him a nice floor. The matchup is tough but so was last weeks and he still had a solid day.
Mark Ingram $5,700
For all the same reasons I like Kamara. I feel like I’ve been able to call Ingram's good games this year so let’s keep the streak alive.
Phillip Lindsay $6,300
He has been incredible this year and continues to shred opposing defenses. He gets a meh matchup vs the 49ers who are pretty much just middle of the pack against running backs. No Manny Sanders so I can't tell you how this will affect/effect? (lol) Lindsay but it is a downgrade as a whole to the entire offense.
Bargain Bin
Adrian Peterson $4,800
AP is only 4,800 this week squaring off vs the Giants who are abysmal vs the run. Ever since they traded Snacks Harrison they have just been getting gashed. AP played them a few weeks ago and had his best game of the year. The G Men are 5th in points per game given up to the position.
Gus Edwards $4,500
The Gus Bus shall roll on as he gets a matchup vs the Chiefs who seemingly get crushed by RBs each week. They give up the 2nd most points per game to the position and are 32nd DVOA vs the run. The only concern here would be if they get crushed early they will lean on Ty Montgomery and Kenneth Dixon.
Justin Jackson $3,800
Justin Jackson if they happen to name him the feature back vs Cinci. (1st in points given up and 28th DVOA vs the run) Found this on Twitter - More Lynn, on Ekeler: "He's wearing down a little bit. He's a core special teams guy for us and he's played a lot of running back for us. So he's a little tired. You might see Justin (Jackson) play a little bit more, you might see (Detrez) Newsome play some this week."
Wide Receiver
High End
Antonio Brown $9,000
Let’s lead off with Antonio Brown as our numero uno for the week. Oakland is #1 DVOA vs WR1’s. DON’T CARE. There is no one on the Raiders defense capable of stopping Brown. You can say Tyreek Hill was shutdown last week by looking at the box score but he really wasn’t. Mahomes and Hill juuuuuust missed on a couple wide open touchdowns last week. This doesn’t mean much but just thought it was something fun to share, In Brown’s last game against Oakland, he had 17 receptions on 23 targets for 284 yards. Pittsburgh has the 2nd highest implied total at 31 so sign me up for Brown this week.
Davante Adams $8,400
Davante Adams has been one of the most if not the most consistent WR in fantasy this year. Now he gets a juicy matchup vs Atlanta who is 28th DVOA vs WR1’s and are a bottom half team in points given up to the position. I think this will be a high scoring game and you’ll want a piece of Rodgers guy. He should see a lot of Robert Alford who is PFFs 6th worst corner on the year.
Julio Jones $7,900
In the same game I love Julio coming off a down game. He is under 8k this week in a great matchup and what I think will be a back and forth game. The Packers are 22nd DVOA vs WR1’s and are giving up the 9th most points per game to receivers. I think this is a big bounce back game for Juliooooooo.
Keenan Allen $7,400
I think its obvious why we like Keenan Allen this week so I will keep it short. He doesn’t get priced up like he should so he is actually an incredible value at only 7,400 going against Cinci.
Juju Smith-Schuster $8,200
Last one in the high end is our man Juju. Really for all the same reasons I like Brown. I don’t need to tell you that Oakland sucks.
**Honorable Mention (Sorry there is so many options, never seen so many stud WR in good spots)
Deandre Hopkins $7,800
Michael Thomas $8,600
Mid Range
Adam Humphries $4,900
Adam Humphries has been surprisingly great this 2nd half of the year and now he gets a matchup vs our favorite guy to pick on P.J. Williams. The good times for Humphries shall continue in this matchup.
Chris Godwin $4,900
On the same team I also really like Chris Godwin. I read reports that Jackson may not play again so that would vault Godwin back into play again this week at sub 5k. I found this info from Adam Levitan on Twitter that Chris Godwin's lines in the games that Jackson has missed are 3-98-0, 7-111-1, 5-101-1.
Bargain Bin
Okay the bargain bin is ugly this week guys but I found 2 that aren’t absolutely terrible.
Bruce Ellington $3,800
Bruce Ellington should see a lot of Leonard Johnson in the slot who is one of the worst corners in the league. His aDot is laughably low but hey he can get 5-7 catches and somehow fall into the end zone. There is almost 0 upside here however.
Chad Williams $3,000
Chad Williams is min price at 3k going against Detroit who is terrible vs the pass and Darius Slay is not going to waste his time on him so it could open some things up for him. If you’re wondering who the hell this guy is.. he will be stepping in for Christian Kirk.
Tight End
Travis Kelce $6,700
Obglitory Travis Kelce number 1. Baltimore has a great defense but the one place they do struggle against is the tight end position as they are 25th DVOA vs the position and give up 64 yards per game.
Eric Ebron $5,700
Ebron gets an amazing matchup vs Houston who bleeds points to tight ends. He had 10 catches last week with Doyle out and I think we see more of the same this week. That is elite level volume at this position and he has the best chance of any tight end this week to score with the way Luck targets his tight ends. Houston is 29th DVOA vs tight ends and give up nearly 70 yards per game to them.
Vance McDonald $3,800
You guys wanna do the Vance dance this week? I might get my dance shoes on for this one going against the Raiders who are the worst team in the league vs tight ends. They are 32nd DVOA and give up the 2nd most points in the league to them.
David Njoku $3,900
David Njoku disappointed biggg time last week in a great matchup vs Houston. He gets another great matchup vs the Panthers who are tied for first in touchdowns given up to the position. Njoku has a ton of athletic ability we just have to hope he gets involved enough.
Gronk $4,800
Gronk sub 5k who has historically done well vs Miami is worth a shot. Or maybe this is just my Gronk bias talking…
Defense
Chargers $3,500 - Bengals
Broncos $3,600 - 49ers
Patriots $2,800- Dolphins
Good luck everyone. Run good.
Posted Dec 6, 2018, 1:23 AM UTC · edited