When does it make sense to buy a new car with enough rebates?

Looking at replacing my '01 Toyota Avalon soon. Been eyeing the Rav4 and Forester. Toyota is trying to clear stock of the '18s due to the '19s being a new generation; subaru isn't as kind with rebates. Normally I would follow the standard advice of look at 2-3 year off lease vehicles for best value. However I have several other rebates that stack with the rav4 rebate this month (recent student graduate and work for a supplier of Toyota Parts)

• Dec Rav4 Incentive: $3000
• Recent Student Grad: $750
• Supplier Discount: Invoice Price + $500 off price

If I look at the invoice pricing of a mid tier model like the adventure the invoice price - MSRP is about $2000 off.

That brings the total savings to ~$6250 off of MSRP.

• 6250/28500 = 22$ off of MSRP for a new vehicle.

If I look at depreciation tables that would put it valued at a '15-'16 model off lease it seems which is where I'd be searching for an off leave vehicle anyway.

I feel like I'm missing something because this seems like a really good deal given the situation. Does my rational check out or am I missing a big component?