Negotiator achievement help

https://imgur.com/a/8h2UNdc

Please help! I've seen this so many time when trying for the Negotiator achievement. I've started 3 playthroughs and reloaded save games from several different points in the New Home scenario to try and get it, but the people always beat him up! I chase the first thief with guards, put him in jail, then chase the second who kill the guard, then I let him go since he's not the murderer. Then I always get this outcome. I've read it's random, but I've literally seen this around 30 times. Is it just really bad RNG, or am I messing something up? It does say something about the crowd was angry about how I dispersed their protest, but I've dealt with every protest peacefully.

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Playing on GOG Galaxy if that matters.