If Corbyn supporters in Labour are so sure that Corbyn can beat the Tories in a GE, why are they so desperate to let the Tories commit seppuku by not resisting Brexit. Do they not believe he's capable of beating the Tories without the collateral damage of Brexit?
If he's capable of beating the Tories, he shouldn't need to sacrifice the British people's wellbeing to do so. If he's not capable of beating the Tories without letting them first irreparably damage the country, he should look to groom a successor who can unite the party without his baggage that puts people off Labour.
Posted Dec 31, 2018, 6:48 PM UTC
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Because the only way an early election happens is if the Tories collapse due to the contradictions of what their different factions want from Brexit. If Labour become the anti-Brexit party, it allows all those factions in the Tory party, whether they're soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Deal to unite against Labours position. This seems so obvious to me I don't know why I'm having to explain it.
You're 100% right. It only needs explaining to Tories who want to disown their Tory Brexit shitshow
The Tories won't collapse themselves. Look at how many times May has gotten away with betraying her party members. Their brexiteers hate Corbyn too much to collapse a Tory government. The only ones who might consider collapsing it are the DUP (if they get a status quo guarantee from Corbyn) or the Remainers (If offered a second referendum).
Labour need to prevent the Tories from changing tact to backing a second referendum before Labour.
If the Tories do so, they stand to regain support from Labour and the LDs that they have lost since Brexit. Brexiteers are safe votes. Labour Brexiteers are a different breed to the standard Brexiteers. They object to the capitalist nature of the EU. They won't subscribe to another capitalist party. They don't have a home outside of Labour.
For the Tories, their Brexiteers are of the anti-migrant variety. Labour will never be able to attract those voters in a million years with their compassionate approach to migrants.
Remainers are the swing voters in the British electoral system, they're the voters that need to be convinced to change sides because they are willing to do so.
There isn't support for No Deal in the Tories, the failed heave against May showed that. Similarly her deal is hated. That leaves a second referendum when other options are exhausted. If the Tories are the ones to back the People's Vote before Labour, they can change their perception and win back remainer voters they've lost to the LDs and Labour without losing their Brexiteer voters who are terrified of Labour winning with Corbyn in charge.
We haven't reached the crunch point yet. We are still in the build up phase.
And there is no chance whatsoever of the Tories winning back remainers any time soon. Zero. Zilch. None. This whole brexit project has their name on it and the infamy of it is going to stick to them for years. That they pushed this whole project to try solve an intra-party dispute, and win back the nationalists, xenophobes, and racists, that had left them for UKIP. No remainer is going to touch that with a barge pole.
Moreover, even if they did it wouldn't help them anyway because that would simply cause the UKIPer types to dump the party again. They left once, and they'll do it again if the conservatives back away from giving them the ultra-hard brexit they are demanding.
When Remainers have no one else (excluding the small parties) representing them, they will cling to the party that has a remainer leader and granted them a second vote. Not the one that hoped the Tories would ruin the nation so they could pick the bones like Hyenas.
No they won't.
You think the remainer generations are going to vote Tory? You've got to be delusional to think they will. They've utterly rejected the Tories for numerous reasons, of which brexit is only one. The Tories have shown themselves to be inimical to their interests on numerous issues, which is why they were trending away from them even before brexit.
There is no going back on this for a long time to come. What's more the Tories know this. If it was as simple as you claim they'd have already U-turned, but they haven't because they know its not going to help them. They won't be thanked for reconsidering on whether to crash the economy and ruin people's lives or not. They shouldn't have decided to do it in the first place.
FYI: "changing tack" which is a nautical term:
TIL
And labour brexit sets don’t care about migration? Not sure where you’re getting that from because from all accounts I’ve seen that’s completely wrong.
Why dose it need an election? A labour government needs that, rescinding article 50 doesn't.
Rescinding A50 will devastate the party responsible in heavy leave areas
Remember it only takes a few points swing for a massive effect under FPTP so even if that’s >10% of the electorate it affects the impact will be hugely disproportionate (this is why Cameron was so scared of UKIP incidentally)
Labour voters are numerically concentrated in cities but their traditional heartlands up North represent a lot of leave areas and a large number of seats they can’t afford to lose.
It’s basically a game of chicken whichever party blinks first risks being unelectable for a generation, which is also the case for whichever party is in charge the day Brexit happens regardless of the form it takes (or doesn’t take).
Labour are on safer ground than the Tories here for two reasons:
They are not in Government so by default they won’t be the ones the public blames if/when it all goes tits up in the next three months.
Labour and it’s voters are less split in general on Europe, the split is there but runs far less deep and with far less bad blood than the Conservatives.
Bear in mind the last 3 Conservative Prime Ministers were taken out by the Europe question (other factors were of course also in play but Europe was the catalyst)
Briefly:
The tensions that led to Thatchers leadership being challenged stemmed from her opposition to the Exchange Rate Mechanism
John Major was famously undermined by the so called ‘Bastards’ over the Maastricht treaty as well as the handling of Black Wednesday where Britain was partially forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism
Cameron held the referendum to try and kill UKIP/stop the party splitting over Europe and buggered off to Nice when he lost.
Labour in contrast has always been more domestically focused, which makes sense given its roots as a workers movement. Voter priorities for Labour voters tend to rank Europe much lower even given the last year of constant Brexit talk.
Oh sure, if you want to argue 'labour wont do dick because it'll be a disaster for the next election' im all onboard.
It's the idea its parliamentary impossible I object to.
I would however question your analysis on the basis of membership =/= electorate at all. Tories sure fairly pro leaving for leavings sake, labour opposition. A lot of the electoral cards do not fall that like and often quite opposite.
Agreed, It’s absolutely possible, Parliament cannot bind itself, that’s the single overriding rule of the British parliamentary system
It’s politically unfeasible...for now at least
That said the window to revoke it is closing fast, certain procedures need to take place for revocation which do take time.
Past Brexit day it is no longer possible for Parliament to change unilaterally obviously so the next six weeks are crucial
Let's imagine Labour moved position in the way you suggest, what do think then happens in Parliament?
Rescinding Article 50 (which I think is incredibly unlikely) would have to be a Tory decision. If Labour were pushing for it, the Tories would close ranks against them. Soubry et al. have proven they fear putting Corbyn in power more than a No Deal Brexit. A Labour led amendment to rescind or extend Article 50 would probably fail, as it would be interpreted as a confidence matter, a Tory led amendment might pass.
Why? As I've said Here The idea that this is a mathematical fact is dubious at best.
what the legislation would look like is fucking complicated (smart money is Ld and SNP have lawyers on this right now) but impossible. Sorry, that argument needs expanding.
But for a start, only government bills are guaranteed time in Parliament. If the opposition or the Lib Dems or the SNP propose a motion to rescind A50 the government can just refuse to allow it the time to be debated. If Labour lays an amendment to a government bill which proposes to rescind A50 this would be interpreted as such a challenge to the government that Theresa May would probably make it a matter of confidence. The Tory rebels, no matter how pro-EU they are, have already said they wouldn't vote with Labour on a matter of confidence.
The best way to bring down the government is to drive a wedge between the Tories, the DUP and potentially the ERG, and that requires Labour to appear to all intents and purposes to be pro-Brexit.
The Labour party wants power, not to rescind article 50.
OP's bizarrely worded premise is all about Corbyn getting into power. Corbyn doesn't get into power until 2022 without an early election.