Unless I'm wrong the daily ICR upgrade chance wasn't touched but this seems an extremely rare coincidence. It started the day of the update. Never had anything close to such a bad streak before.
Is everyone else getting rare upgrades at a similar rate than before the update?
Posted Jan 27, 2019, 12:05 PM UTC
The uncommon->rare upgrade chance was actually increased.
Rare->mythic was decreased however
[removed]
source?
the patchnotes?
Before the patch I'd been doing basically 15 wins every day since October. I had 2 Daily ICRs upgrade to Mythic in that time and 3 to Rare.
Since the patch I haven't had time to knock out 15 wins a day so I've just been going to 5. I've snagged 3 Mythics and 4 Rares.
It's variance.
https://forums.mtgarena.com/forums/threads/44953
The only update we're making with ICRs you receive from your Daily Win bonus is that we're changing the upgrade rate from Rare to Mythic Rare to bring it inline with the Event reward rates (and through extension, approximately the same rate you typically see in tabletop MTG). The amount of ICRs you can earn, and the upgrade rate from uncommon to rare is not changing with this update. To put it in official drop rate terms:
This is as good a place as any to ask but does anyone know why I keep getting 20 gems as a DAILY ICR reward when I triple checked and am missing tons of rares in every set (100% f2p btw up until now had never even seen a gem)?
The ICRs aren't protected from duplicates, only rare/mythic slot it packs: only 8 card packs, though; that doesn't protect from draft or sealed packs you open. You can still get dups (and gems) from those too.
Your 15 weekly packs should not give you gems, though, unless you have all the RNA rare/mythic cards, and you're missing XLN, because the weekly packs are RNA only (right now). If you are missing XLN rares and you do an XLN draft, the prize packs will be dup protected and you should fill out those rares that way.
When you get 20/40 gems it means the rare/mythic you got was a 5th copy.
The ICR has its set generated first. So if it decided this one is guilds, then it upgrades to rare, but you own every rare, you get gems :).
Got some rares and mythics
The chance of that happening is .5%. Unlikely but not improbable
The odds of that happening are about 0.05%, so 1 in 2000 people will have that happen. Considering the player base, you are far from alone to have that happen to you.
I strongly recommend not tracking it, no idea why you are now, as I can see no upside for you at all
Pretty sure it was.
It's called variance.
Before the patch the numbers for upgrade were:
Rare: 7% chance
Mythic: 4% chance
After the patch:
Rare: 8,75% chance
Mythic: 1,25% chance
After patch rare rate is actually 10%. Everything else is correct though.
Copying a previous response from another post:
For rare ICRs, 10% is the rate the ICR will upgrade to a rare, not the rate at which you will get a rare ICR, since some of those rare ICRs will upgrade again into a mythic. The straight up odds of getting a specific rarity for the ICRs is 90% uncommon, 8.75% rare, and 1.25% mythic. The previous odds were 89% uncommon, 7% rare and 4% mythic.
Oops. Yeah you are right. I wasn't thinking about subtracting the mythics from the rares.
Wait what? There's a separate upgrade and drop rate on daily win ICRs?
I'm not sure I understand. The drop rates and upgrade rates for ICRs have always been different. Prior to the ICR nerf, Wizards had posted the drop rates, which is the most applicable since it tells you exactly the odds of getting a specific rarity from an ICR drop. With this new patch, Wizards instead posted the upgrade rates, so to get the new drop rates you have to do some conversion, which I did above.