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r/nbadiscussion•
RepulsiveStatement

What is Frank Ntilikina's Career Outlook?

Ntilikina was drafted 8th by the Knicks in the 2017 NBA draft. When he was drafted, he was expected to be a high-floor player who could potentially develop into a strong defender and "game-manager". However, up until today, for his NBA career Ntilikina has averages of 21.7 mpg, 5.9-2.2-3.1 (Pts-Reb-Ast), with a 6.7 PER and -1.6 VORP. Looking at his shot selection, this year he's shooting 40% of his shots from three, but is only connecting on 30% of his attempts. Admittedly, I've only watched Frank play a few times, though he appears to be at the very least a slightly above average defender. Speaking to Knicks fan, he's criticized for his inability to create on offense and his consistency in general. How do you guys see Frank Ntilikina's career going? Bust? Average backup point guard? Can he eventually realize his potential?

Posted Mar 8, 2019, 6:57 PM UTC

9272
urasha•

Honestly?

I believe it's our organization not having faith in him and kinda ruining his development.

Frank's natural position is being a pass-first PG. However he's gotten limited minutes playing that position being put as a SG or even SF, which ofc he's not suited for. If he's at PG he has a natural advantage of his length and height, if u remove him from that there goes his advantage.

His defense is great honestly, having clamped PG13 and getting a good ountof steals, however his offensive woes are real.

So essentially he's a bad offensive player with good defense but the thing is though I think it's his confidence stemming from being so young & lack of focus on him because of being from the PJ-era pick/ Fizs lllove for Emanuel Mudiay playing over him.

He can control the offense & play the PnR well & you see flashes of being good floor general.

it's just that he needs to get stronger & become a better shooter& finisher around the rim.

Overall I think if we do trade him, we're going to regret it especially if he goes to somewhere like the Spurs, Raptors, Warriors, or even Kings. Proper minutes and development will do wonders for him, something our organization lacks with him

TL;DR Frank needs more time to develop, he was know to be a project and ppl label him a bust because of memes & don't see him play

116
OseanStratagy•

i saw the other comment talking abou this dribbling but you seem to think he can run the pass first pg role. how does these two jibe?

18
urasha•

So his dribbling does need a lot of work, he's not used to the US style of basketball because he really is a team first kind of guy, passing up the ball to give his teammates the best kind of look - it's something why everyone says if he was on the Spurs he'd be a star there

That's really the big reason why his dribbling sucks, he's that guy who you need in the playoffs but on tanking team he's just not going to be a stand out cause he's not a scoring PG.

I really think it's unfair to call him a bust so early, it's unfair to call a lot of guys in their sophomore years busts so early.

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OseanStratagy•

not saying he's a bust. but let's be real here, lots of high level picks out of europe can dribble well, really well. he's certainly a project. but a project where his only real tangible upside at the moment is his defense. which is great but on dimensional guys who need work on all other aspects of the game don't tend to pan out well. not saying he would or wouldn't make it work elsewhere but let's also call a spade a spade. he never shouldve been a first rounder.

9
K1787L12•

You're kind of simplifying his overall game. He isn't a great dribbler but he's a very good passer and a smart player when he actually plays and gets the ball. There's upside in his offense, it's just not traditional. Tbh he should be getting more playing time for us since we're tanking, but what will ultimately decide his fate is whether he can develop the ability to make open shots. However, too say a guy that good at defense already never should've been a first rounder is dumb.

8
PhinsGraphicDesigner•

Never should have been a first rounder??? Chill dude. Did the Knicks fuck up taking Frank over Dennis Smith Jr? Yes and everyone knows it, but he was still a lottery prospect. He was supposed to have a good jumper and is a great defender. If he can honestly just figure out his 3-point shooting, he’d be a solid 3-and-d combo guard with limited playmaking skills (more of a SG than PG).

2
divesting•

it seems to me like hed benefit a lot from playing the off ball Jrue Holiday role where his points come off of picks into cuts, etc., wing PnR, etc. The problem is that theres no one to enable him in that position since everyone on NY is mainly looking for their own, not really playing in a system yet. He really cant play lead PG when the teams also trying to develop DSJ and Mudiay.

Its still so early tho and I think even if Frank needs until the end of his rookie contract to be a legitimate floor spacer it will pay off. Its not like the Knicks are in any rush with their talent being so young.

5
bayesian_acolyte•

Frank currently does not have the skills necessary to be even a below average backup PG (on offense). Playing a terrible offensive player more on-ball is going to make him have worse impact, not better. His offense right now is closer to Andre Roberson than it is to Rondo. Maybe he would develop into this role faster if he was played more on-ball, but he's so far away right now that it seems like wishful thinking, at least until he can improve some core skills.

All the most upvoted top level comments right now are blaming the Knicks. I'm a pretty big Knicks hater but I don't think that's fair. Frank always has had a low floor and has lacked certain skills that he will need if he is going to stick in the NBA long term. It has never been guaranteed that he would develop these skills. These are mostly basic skills he needs to develop outside of NBA games, so the role he's currently playing isn't that relevant. And blaming the Knicks player development is pretty much random speculation as none of us have any clue how good or bad of a job they are really doing with him.

Just to end this on a positive note, I think he still has a lot of potential. People tend to massively underrate the importance of defense. But it seems his most likely path to becoming a starter level player is more Tony Allen than Ben Simmons. He still has a lot more offensive upside than Tony Allen but at this point it's not very likely it happens.

3
yargdpirate•

So basically you think his model should be Dejounte Murray

2
FEED_ME_FUNK•

The Raptors would take him and run. If developed correctly, he would be perfect as an eventual replacement to Kyle Lowry.

1
capitalistsanta•

I think the org thinks they can find a guy on the roster that plays with more fire. He had an amazing showing out against the Rockets. Only player to hold Harden to bad shooting that night. His offense just isn't very good but he's so young. I think they should try to let him finish his contract out personally, but I think if they can package him up for an established star with some other guys I'm for that. I'd love dude to get some burn at the point with another team

0
Rasheediscool•

Frank has been given the short end of the stick. They keep throwing him at the SF and even PF, when he's a guard. He has his best games at the point guard position and plays well with other point guards when he moves to the 2.

His offense sucks but his confidence is alot better this year. He attacks more, tries more dribble moves, and overall improved his mentality to the game. Now he has to work on basketball skill.

His shot is actually almost always on target which means he has good mechanics, but because he's missing it's either due to a lack of strength, not using enough legs, or inconsistent release points.

His passing is good, he's not Ben Simmons but it's good enough that he could get around 5 apg.

Handles are still very lose. He's added more dribble moves to his game but he needs to tighten the handle and use his body to protect the ball.

We all know his defense is great.

TLDR

Overall I think the Knicks should use him as a secondary ball handler at the 2. His defense and passing are good and he has good mechanics to where his shot can become better over time. I wouldn't give up on him just yet.

19
United_Telephone1•

His shot is actually almost always on target which means he has good mechanics, but because he's missing it's either due to a lack of strength, not using enough legs, or inconsistent release points.

His shot looks slow and he has trouble getting it off in traffic. His his shooting % reflects that.

His passing is good, he's not Ben Simmons but it's good enough that he could get around 5 apg.

He averages 2.8 assists to 2.4 turnovers. Even last year when he played 22 minutes per game almost exclusively at PG he only averaged 3.2 assists. That's despite basically passing every opportunity he got.

​

We played him at SF because he's our 3rd best PG (4th if you include Kadeem Allen) and he was our 4th best SG.

8
Rasheediscool•

Frank almost ALWAYS gets played off ball. He rarely gets to play the point guard position. He had his first PG start this season for reference.

With that being said, he's had his best scoring and passing games when he played/started at the PG position

Slow shot doesn't mean bad shot. His mechanics are good and it can speed up over time, not drastically, but it can get better and faster.

5
United_Telephone1•

Slow shot doesn't mean bad shot.

Of course but Franks shot is slow and bad. A quick glance at his shooting splits would tell you that.

​

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Rasheediscool•

I feel like you didn't read my comment at all

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PhinsGraphicDesigner•

I just said this somewhere else in this thread. If he can get a decent 3-point shot and a decent handle he could be a solid 3-and-d SG with enough ball skills to attack close outs and be a secondary ball handler. He has a good shooting form and everyone knew his handle would need time to develop. New York seems ready to ditch the youth moment in an instant and a sign a bunch of veterans this offseason so hopefully Frank will get traded to a young team that will let him develop. I think he’d be great on the Hawks as a backup combo guard to Trae Young and Kevin Huerter. He can play off ball with Young and take the opposing teams best guard on D or play PG with Huerter at the 2. The Hawks are most likely going to still be tanking next year and with 2 lottery picks should have a lot better rebuild going than the Knicks did. The Suns and Mavericks would work well too as they look for young complementary pieces.

1
mikede88•

i think he still lacks some basic skills, he has trouble dribbling with his off-hand, picks up his dribble way too often, and honestly, for every good play he makes on defense, he makes 3 bad ones on offense. with that being said, he's young and can improve but he doesn't look to be much of a difference maker

11
JacoIII•

If he played on a team with decent player development he'd probably be fine, but he's with the Knicks so... shrug.

Since drafting Patrick Ewing in 1985, the Knicks have drafted a total of 3 All-Stars: Mark Jackson (1987), David Lee (2005), and Porzingis (2015). Those three players were chosen for just 4 All-Star teams total.

This tells me they have no idea how to develop talent.

10
United_Telephone1•

How many all-star level talents did we draft that we did not develop? If anything it shows you we traded away our picks too often. I think Porzingis was the only top 5 pick we had since Ewing. That should tell you something.

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JacoIII•

Honestly, I don't buy the idea that good players are only available at the top of the draft class. If a team can't turn any non-Top 5 picks into All-Stars then that's a huge player development problem (not to mention a scouting problem). "Talent" is only part of the equation.

Look at the Spurs, Raptors, and Bucks. They've turned tons of non-Top 5 draft-picks into perennial All-Stars and/or solid starters: Tony Parker, Ginobili, Kawhi, Danny Green, DeRozan, Siakam, Tracy McGrady, Giannis, Brogdan, Middleton (picked by Pistons but the Bucks developed him). It's not an accident that these players improved year-over-year while most Knicks picks simply stagnated.

Basically, the answer to your question "how many all-star level talents did we draft that we did not develop?" is that we'll never know because the Knicks botched their development and wasted whatever talent they might have had.

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United_Telephone1•

I don't buy the idea that good players are only available at the top of the draft class.

Of course not but that's where most of them are concentrated.

If a team can't turn any non-Top 5 picks into All-Stars

You mean like David Lee?

Basically, the answer to your question "how many all-star level talents did we draft that we did not develop?" is that we'll never know because the Knicks botched their development and wasted whatever talent they might have had.

Hmmm Yes because THJ, Wilson Chandler, Iman Shumpert, Channing Fry, Renaldo balkman, Mardy Collins, Nene, Mike Sweetney and Jordan Hill were absolutely brimming with all-star potential. Tell me did they start showing some of that all-star potential after they left the Knicks?

Look at the Spurs, Raptors, and Bucks. They've turned tons of non-Top 5 draft-picks into perennial All-Stars and/or solid starters: Tony Parker, Ginobili, Kawhi, DeRozan, Siakam, Tracy McGrady, Giannis, Brogdan, Middleton (picked by Pistons but the Bucks developed him). It's not an accident that these players improved year-over-year while most Knicks picks simply stagnated.

Huh? I get the Spurs and Raptors but Tracy McGrady?? Giannis?? Did you forget the Bucks picked Jabari? Are you going to start trashing their development staff? What about Tross, Bargnani, Bruno Caboclo and Delon Wright? Turns out their not perennial all stars?

​

If anything what you just wrote shows how important drafting right is. Especially in the late rounds.

​

3
JacoIII•

You mean like David Lee?

Ah, yes, the one exception in 35 years. If 2-time All-Star David Lee (the best player on a 29-win Knicks team) is your development success story then something is wrong.

Hmmm Yes because THJ, Wilson Chandler, Iman Shumpert, Channing Fry, Renaldo balkman, Mardy Collins, Nene, Mike Sweetney and Jordan Hill were absolutely brimming with all-star potential. Tell me did they start showing some of that all-star potential after they left the Knicks?

Let's go one-by-one:

THJ's best season was his second with Atlanta AFTER leaving the Knicks. He shot 45% and had a TS% of 57%. More importantly, he was leaps and bounds better than his first season with Atlanta, improving in nearly every statistical category while also having better efficiency. This is hugely different from his first two years with the Knicks where he regressed in almost every category, including efficiency.

More importantly, when he returned to the Knicks the following season his efficiency regressed AGAIN.

Wilson Chandler's efficiency improved after leaving the Knicks for Denver, despite a pretty terrible injury. He's a pretty inconsistent player though.

Shumpert regressed in his first three seasons with the Knicks. He's also always injured. I'll call that one bad luck rather than bad development/bad drafting. Injuries are a bitch.

Channing Frye is another funny example. He wasn't a good player with the Knicks but, after leaving, he developed into an entirely DIFFERENT and better player. The new Frye shot 3s and shot them really well. Phoenix played him 27 minutes a game and got to the West Finals. If he'd stayed with the Knicks, I don't think that would have happened. Another team capitalized on Frye's potential and the Knicks missed out.

Renaldo Balkman and Mardy Collins were two bad picks in one of the worst drafts ever. No argument here.

Nene has had an 18 year career playing for many decent playoff teams. Also, he has NEVER PLAYED A GAME FOR THE KNICKS. Why bring him up?

Mike Sweetney and Jordan Hill were bad picks.

You ignored a few players - Danilo Gallinari, Trevor Ariza, and Rod Strickland - all of whom became better (to varying degrees) after leaving the Knicks.

Huh? I get the Spurs and Raptors but Tracy McGrady?? Giannis?? Did you forget the Bucks picked Jabari? Are you going to start trashing their development staff? What about Tross, Bargnani, Bruno Caboclo and Delon Wright? Turns out their not perennial all stars?

McGrady was picked 9th and improved every season he played with the Raptors. Giannis was picked 15th and has improved every season with the Bucks. They are the definition of the benefits of good development. Go look at how their numbers improve year-over-year.

Jabari Parker has suffered TWO torn ACLs, he gets a pass. There's no way to tell what kind of player he would have become.

As for Tross, Barg, Bruno, Delon: yeah, they aren't the greatest players (although three of them are currently playing meaningful minutes), but I didn't say every draft pick had to be a winner for a team to have good player development. All I was looking for was ANY pattern of positive player development, which the Knicks haven't had in decades.

4
SaucyFingers•

That’s not a development issue. It’s a pick accumulation and selection issue. Far too few picks due to bad trades and too many bad selections with those picks.

Frank’s issue is that he was a bad pick. He was a ridiculous reach. If he was taken late first or in the second round, nobody would be talking about him.

5
JacoIII•

It's absolutely a development issue if a team can't make their players better. You can say Frank was a bad pick, but that excuse rings hollow when it's used for 40 picks in a row dating back to 1986. Was he a bad pick, or was he a promising prospect picked by a team that had no idea how to develop him?

The Knicks wanted Frank and after a team drafts players it's up to the coaches to get the most from them. If they can't, well shit, maybe they shouldn't be coaching.

0
JimSta•

Have they had the same coaching staff in place since 1986? If not then I don’t see why you keep bringing that figure up, because it’s not necessarily relevant to the current coaching staff.

Mitchell Robinson and Alonzo Trier seem to be developing okay, and they’re on the same team as Frank right now.

3
JacoIII•

I bring it up because it shows a pattern of organizational dysfunction when it comes to developing young players. Patterns are important.

I agree about Trier and Robinson. I think the Knicks have a good batch of young players right now. I'm excited to see if they can develop them into great players.

2
SaucyFingers•

But there needs to be something developable. He’s one of the worst players on one of the worst teams. You can just flip some magical “player development” switch and make him good when he has minimal talent to begin with.

2
JacoIII•

He's a 6'6" PG with a 7ft wingspan. That alone gives him the tools to be a great defender.

Why isn't it happening? It's possible that he doesn't have the work ethic, but, Christ, he was a 19 year-old, barely an adult. The team should have had a plan when they drafted him. From what I can tell, the Knicks don't even have a shooting coach on staff and haven't had one since Dave Hopla left.

How are they supposed to improve a raw prospect that they CHOSE to draft if they don't give him support?

1
michaelobriena•

Frank's biggest issue is his handles. As a pass first PG, he is currently unable to get into a dangerous position to distribute efficiently. he has a lot of issues getting into the paint which results in fewer opportunities for his teammates as well as leads to him settling for pullup 3's.

Mechanically, his shot is passable. A little slow in the release and a bit of a weird finish, but overall workable. A lot of his 3's are pullup and again, it is his handles that prevents him from getting separation needed to make them at an above average rate. Catch and shoot, he is not bad. https://www.bball-index.com/in-depth-look-into-ntilikinas-shooting/

Defensively he is great but still gets beaten by guards wit quick first steps. When he has time to get into his defensive stance things improve but he does get blown by

The good news is, tightening up handles is something that can easily be done. Which is why I am still high on Frank.

​

​

7
significantsignature•

He was two years away from being two years away when he came into this league to use the ol adage. He still has potential to become a starting-caliber offensive player and well above average defender but it's still going to take time. He might be 28 before he has his first good NBA season and sadly NY fans have no patience

4
__gabe•

Maybe 2 years + 2 years offensively. But he's already a VERY good defender.

1
daftmonkey•

He's a guy who would really have benefited from like two years in the G-League. The problem with these really young lottery guys is that they get drafted in the first round and its considered a real knock to relegate them down. Frank has like half the skills to be a really good NBA point guard.

He's an excellent defender and he really gets it. He's got great length. He has a smooth stroke although but his release is too slow. He's developed a floater that shows promise. And there are glimpses where he shows that he understands how to break down a defense.

BUT his shot selection is weak, his body is weak, and he needs to like go spend a summer with Rajon Rondo or Jason Kidd and learn the craft of the position. He doesn't understand the role that the point guard plays in setting the tempo of the game. When he plays with pace interesting things start to happen but his handling, vision and passing skills aren't quite up to the task so there are turnovers and clumsy shots. Too often he falls into this mode of taking the ball up the court, passing it off to the pick man at the top of the key and then waiting in the corner for a set shot. It makes the offense incredibly stagnant.

I happen to love the guy. Theres something really compelling about him that makes me root for him. Getting in Lebron's face last season was pretty funny. But the Knicks have basically signaled that they're giving up on him as a primary ball handler by getting DSJ and just the ascendancy of Trier. And Im not sure if he's got the right setup to be an effective wing.

It sounds like he's on the market and I keep seeing Orlando as a possible destination. I sincerely hope that he goes to a team like the Spurs that have the ability to develop him into a legit NBA starter.

4
redsoxfan3444•

As a Jazz fan, he has an eerily similar career trajectory to Dante Exum. He's a guy that I think you can be patient with but only to a certain point otherwise you end up in our situation where you pay him a bunch of money because you still believe in him yet, in at least Exum's case, he can't stay on the court, and whenever he does play you get really awful games mixed with just pretty good ones.

Obviously not counting him out and saying they are exactly the same but I think they'll be in a similar situation as us when they do decide to compete will they still be as patient and in my opinion, the fact that they've traded for DSJ and play Mudiay over him makes me believe they kind of already plan on letting him go at some point.

2
RepulsiveStatementOP•

This is an interesting take. Exum has been oft-injured as you mentioned, though would you say Exum has outplayed Frank when he’s healthy?

3
tgourdet1982•

He’ll be pretty good but won’t be good playing for the NY Knicks. He’ll need to go to a well run organization that would be able help him progress much better and put him in a better position to succeed. The NY Knicks do not have a good process in order for their players to excel, not as long as Dolan owning the team.

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TheCurseOfJamesDolan•

He's supposedly a pass-first point guard, but his handles are average and his court vision is suspect. Sometimes, he'll make some great plays, other times he'll turn the ball over without trying.

At this point, IMO he'd be better off at a wing position, but he seems to desire to be a PG. But, he's going to be out of the league quick if he doesn't start hitting threes more efficiently.

And this is coming from a Knicks fan who wanted NY to draft Frank and argued that Frank was a better pick than DSJ -- up until DSJ ended up on the Knicks roster.

Personally, I think he'd be better off if he spent some time in the D-League developing. But, it sounds like the FO is ready to move on. Which is dumb. The Knicks roster is packed with young former lottery picks that other teams quit on too early (Mudiay, Vonleh, Ellenson, Herzonja) who still might have a chance to be productive rotation players (though no stars) and we're about to give up on one of our draft picks. Again, stupid. But, he was a PJ selection, so I don't think Perry and Mills have the patience to wait for him to develop and he's either stagnating or the team is doing a bad job at guiding his development.

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0
The_Great_Grahambino•

I think a change of scenery would do wonders for him. Put him on Phoenix where he'll never need to do much offensively and I think he thrives. Spurs with their development staff, or Toronto makes sense too. If Toronto blows it up I could see a lowery for Frank, Mitchell, maybe Knox or a few firsts (assuming kd+)

-2†
Rasheediscool•

Lowry for Frank + Mitch + Knox is absolutely terrible and robbery.

7
DjangoUBlackBastard•

I hope you mean Toronto would be robbing NY because Mitch alone has way more value than Lowry at his current age.

4
Rasheediscool•

That's what I meant. This would he able absolute steal for Toronto. Definitely not good or realistic trade

6
OldTrafford25•

That would be literally worse than the KP trade. A disaster for us. Why would we ever want Lowry at the expense of Mitchell?

7
United_Telephone1•

Why would we want Lowry at this point at all? It's not like were even competitive.

3
OldTrafford25•

We wouldn’t, also he’s old as hell.

Knicks only have one player they need to keep and that is Robinson. Everyone else can go.

But watch us miss on Zion, sign Jordan to an absolutely awful contact, and then add Dragic and Middleton and become a useless team for another 20 years during our one shot at success.

1
stormstalker•

Incidentally, that's almost exactly what happened in my 2K MyLeague. Knicks ended up picking like 4th I think and drafted Cam Reddish, re-signed Jordan and signed Middleton and Jeff Teague. Seemed pretty on-brand, tbh.

1
K1787L12•

Also I think there's a "no Masai" trading policy after the Melo and Bargnani trades

1