Use this tool to calculate your chance of winning a crate tank.

Seen lots of crate posts today and I think a lot of people don't understand their chance of actually getting a tank when buying multiple containers. Individually, the chance is always the same per container whether it's your first or millionth, but as anyone can intuitively grasp, more crates = more chances which increases your cumulative chance of a tank.

For an analogy, let's say you suck at making a free throw in basketball and you never get better (so the probability is the same for each throw). Every time you try there's only a tiny chance of scoring, but if you try 1000 times, your chance of scoring once is going to be higher than for a single throw, but it will never reach 100%

There's actually a nice simple online calculator you can use to estimate your chance. Stat Trek's Binomial Probability Calculator.

To use this tool, you need the drop rate or percentage chance of getting a tank, and the total number of crates/containers/chests/boxes/whatever that you're opening.

Let say you buy 5 victory containers, each with a 5.5% chance. Enter the numbers like this:

• Probability as a decimal: 5.5% = 0.055
• Number of trials: Total number of crates to be opened. Include all previously opened crates for overall probability.
• Number of successes: Enter 1 to find the chance of 1 tank.

And out pops your answer, look at the bottom number. With 5 crates you have a 24.6% chance of 1 tank.

Perhaps more importantly, this means you have a 75.4% chance of NO TANK! Even if you bought the 20 pack, your chance of NO TANK is still about 32%, about 1/3 people will leave with nothing but the usual boosters, credits and so on. Occasionally WG includes a secondary mechanic to ensure you win after say, 100 crates, but not this time. You could buy a thousand and still come away with nothing. Crates are gambling, and this is why they suck.

For a deeper understanding of Binomial Probability, Stat Trek has a nice explanation here.