Expected Stats Review – GW37: Top Performers, Underperformers and Overperformers
Expected Stats Review – GWXX: Top Performers, Underperformers and Overperformers
Hello, and welcome back to this Gameweek’s Expected Stats Review.
TL;DR: Visual summary – Season to date. (Defenders, Midfielders, Forwards)
TL;DR: Visual summary – Last 5 GWs. (Defenders, Midfielders, Forwards)
Quick notes following GW37:
- For once this was a quite limited gameweek in terms of FPL points and xStats excitement, although the real-life drama surrounding the battles for the league, for top4, and for relegation, were certainly entertaining.
- There were few standout team or individual performances, but Chelsea fared very well. Giroud (1.11 xG+xA), Hazard (1.09), Pedro (0.7), Higuain (0.68) and David Luiz (0.65) all feature in the GW top20 for xStats. That’s unusual, but speaks to their individual contributions as well as the relative dearth of other high scores.
- Marko Arnautovic was another one to produce this week. After injury problems and a lack of form, he was on point in West Ham’s unexpected shellacking of a previously resurgent Southampton. In this tail end of the season, we can expect more strange results for those teams with nothing to play for.
- Other performances worthy of note include another good one for Ryan Fraser (1.57), who has truly set himself apart this season. Only Salah, Sterling, Hazard, Mané and Pogba have better xG+xA stats for a midfielder than the diminutive Fraser this season.
- Just the one more gameweek to go. Fingers crossed for a good end-of-season to you all!
Before we dive into this week’s numbers: For all questions regarding the nature and usefulness of ‘expected’ stats and the data here, please see my original post.
The TL;DR is: ‘expected’ stats are useful and strongly associated with actual performance but should be just one input to your FPL evaluations. Don't make any FPL decisions purely based on this. Go explore the full 'expected' stats data. Combine your analysis with other statistics. Make qualitative assessments of on-the-pitch performance, form and fixtures, use bookmaker odds, etc.
As always, the data is from understat. And as always, thoughts and feedback is very welcome.
For more thoughts and discussion, find me on Twitter @wiscostretford. My FPL team, by the way, is here.
Now, on to the stats for the season so far:
Last GW’s Top Performers
The ‘last GW’s top performers’ stats tells us which players have performed the best in terms of combined expected goals and assists (xG+A) in the last GW only.
| Player | ChangeThisGW | Last3GWs |
|---|---|---|
| Marko Arnautovic | 1.58 | 2.09 |
| Ryan Fraser | 1.57 | 3.54 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 1.51 | 2.05 |
| Olivier Giroud | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Eden Hazard | 1.09 | 1.9 |
| João Moutinho | 1.09 | 1.53 |
| Glenn Murray | 1.01 | 2.12 |
| Pascal Groß | 0.96 | 1.62 |
| Christian Atsu | 0.85 | 0.89 |
| Michy Batshuayi | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Marcus Rashford | 0.73 | 1.07 |
| Pedro | 0.7 | 1.54 |
| Seamus Coleman | 0.7 | 1 |
| Mohamed Salah | 0.68 | 3.39 |
| Gonzalo Higuaín | 0.68 | 1.95 |
| Willy Boly | 0.67 | 1.54 |
| Juan Mata | 0.65 | 1.11 |
| David Luiz | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| Diogo Jota | 0.64 | 2.69 |
| Andros Townsend | 0.64 | 0.64 |
Overall Top Performers
The ‘overall top performers’ stats tells us which players have performed the best in terms of combined expected goals and assists (xG+A).
| Player | Team | Apps | Min | Goals | Assists | Shots | Key passes | xG | xA | xG+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 37 | 3184 | 22 | 8 | 132 | 68 | 21.36 | 10.47 | 31.83 |
| Raheem Sterling | Manchester City | 33 | 2698 | 17 | 10 | 76 | 65 | 15.81 | 10.65 | 26.46 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | Arsenal | 35 | 2650 | 20 | 5 | 87 | 33 | 21.3 | 4.99 | 26.29 |
| Sergio Agüero | Manchester City | 32 | 2425 | 20 | 8 | 114 | 33 | 19.3 | 5.18 | 24.48 |
| Jamie Vardy | Leicester | 33 | 2650 | 18 | 4 | 77 | 31 | 18.97 | 5.12 | 24.09 |
| Eden Hazard | Chelsea | 36 | 2915 | 16 | 15 | 93 | 97 | 12.3 | 11.55 | 23.85 |
| Callum Wilson | Bournemouth | 29 | 2458 | 14 | 9 | 64 | 31 | 15.87 | 5.96 | 21.83 |
| Sadio Mané | Liverpool | 35 | 3010 | 20 | 1 | 85 | 43 | 16.04 | 4.95 | 20.99 |
| Paul Pogba | Manchester United | 34 | 2923 | 13 | 9 | 102 | 54 | 15.7 | 5.14 | 20.84 |
| Raúl Jiménez | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 37 | 3053 | 13 | 7 | 108 | 41 | 14.02 | 6.72 | 20.74 |
| Harry Kane | Tottenham | 28 | 2437 | 17 | 4 | 102 | 30 | 16.12 | 4.56 | 20.69 |
| Ryan Fraser | Bournemouth | 37 | 3095 | 7 | 14 | 48 | 90 | 4.69 | 15.98 | 20.67 |
| Roberto Firmino | Liverpool | 34 | 2631 | 12 | 6 | 75 | 43 | 13.74 | 6.34 | 20.08 |
| Gylfi Sigurdsson | Everton | 37 | 3060 | 13 | 5 | 84 | 71 | 12.03 | 6.61 | 18.65 |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | Fulham | 36 | 3195 | 11 | 3 | 128 | 31 | 15.25 | 2.97 | 18.22 |
| David Silva | Manchester City | 32 | 2347 | 6 | 6 | 51 | 70 | 8.13 | 9.63 | 17.76 |
| Joshua King | Bournemouth | 34 | 2897 | 11 | 3 | 69 | 35 | 12.79 | 3.85 | 16.64 |
| Ashley Barnes | Burnley | 36 | 2289 | 11 | 2 | 61 | 21 | 12.92 | 3.51 | 16.43 |
| Bernardo Silva | Manchester City | 35 | 2761 | 7 | 7 | 60 | 68 | 7.79 | 8.5 | 16.29 |
| Alexandre Lacazette | Arsenal | 35 | 2498 | 13 | 8 | 81 | 31 | 12.03 | 4.1 | 16.13 |
Overall Underperformers
‘Overall underperformers’ indicates players with lower actual returns (G+A) than expected returns (xG+A) to date. This might be due to bad luck or lacking skill. The top 20 are shown below.
| Player | Team | Apps | Min | Goals | Assists | Shots | Key passes | xG | xA | xG+A | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Silva | Manchester City | 32 | 2347 | 6 | 6 | 51 | 70 | 8.13 | 9.63 | 17.76 | 5.76 |
| Gabriel Jesus | Manchester City | 29 | 993 | 7 | 3 | 43 | 21 | 12.62 | 2.65 | 15.27 | 5.27 |
| Joe Ralls | Cardiff | 28 | 1961 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 33 | 1.37 | 3.6 | 4.97 | 4.97 |
| Sean Morrison | Cardiff | 33 | 2953 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 22 | 5.05 | 3.46 | 8.51 | 4.51 |
| Isaac Success | Watford | 30 | 1015 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 21 | 3.29 | 3.01 | 6.3 | 4.3 |
| Pascal Groß | Brighton | 24 | 1806 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 52 | 4.14 | 5.13 | 9.27 | 4.27 |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | Fulham | 36 | 3195 | 11 | 3 | 128 | 31 | 15.25 | 2.97 | 18.22 | 4.22 |
| Oumar Niasse | Everton | 18 | 1014 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 6 | 3.39 | 0.77 | 4.16 | 4.16 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | Manchester City | 18 | 954 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 36 | 1.43 | 6.65 | 8.08 | 4.08 |
| Joe Bryan | Fulham | 27 | 2274 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 22 | 0.55 | 4.32 | 4.87 | 3.87 |
| Alex Iwobi | Arsenal | 34 | 1884 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 35 | 3.7 | 6.92 | 10.62 | 3.62 |
| Leander Dendoncker | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18 | 1384 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 4.17 | 1.29 | 5.45 | 3.45 |
| Danny Ings | Southampton | 23 | 1615 | 7 | 2 | 52 | 26 | 9.15 | 3.29 | 12.45 | 3.45 |
| Romelu Lukaku | Manchester United | 32 | 2113 | 12 | 0 | 55 | 21 | 13.11 | 2.32 | 15.43 | 3.43 |
| Ashley Barnes | Burnley | 36 | 2289 | 11 | 2 | 61 | 21 | 12.92 | 3.51 | 16.43 | 3.43 |
| Mohamed Elyounoussi | Southampton | 16 | 786 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 15 | 2.21 | 1.14 | 3.35 | 3.35 |
| Nathan Redmond | Southampton | 37 | 3193 | 5 | 4 | 73 | 46 | 7.87 | 4.45 | 12.32 | 3.32 |
| Theo Walcott | Everton | 36 | 2037 | 4 | 2 | 38 | 21 | 6.27 | 2.88 | 9.15 | 3.15 |
| Patrick van Aanholt | Crystal Palace | 35 | 3112 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 35 | 2.31 | 4.72 | 7.02 | 3.02 |
| Christian Benteke | Crystal Palace | 16 | 808 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 9 | 3.73 | 1.19 | 4.92 | 2.92 |
Overall Overperformers
‘Overall overperformers’ indicates players with higher actual returns (G+A) than expected returns (xG+A) to date. This might be due to good luck or exceptional skill. The top 20 are shown below.
| Player | Team | Apps | Min | Goals | Assists | Shots | Key passes | xG | xA | xG+A | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eden Hazard | Chelsea | 36 | 2915 | 16 | 15 | 93 | 97 | 12.3 | 11.55 | 23.85 | -7.15 |
| Son Heung-Min | Tottenham | 31 | 2061 | 12 | 6 | 74 | 33 | 8.36 | 3.97 | 12.33 | -5.67 |
| Christian Eriksen | Tottenham | 34 | 2682 | 7 | 12 | 80 | 71 | 5.52 | 7.84 | 13.36 | -5.64 |
| Leroy Sané | Manchester City | 31 | 1866 | 10 | 10 | 56 | 40 | 6.98 | 8.1 | 15.08 | -4.92 |
| Alexandre Lacazette | Arsenal | 35 | 2498 | 13 | 8 | 81 | 31 | 12.03 | 4.1 | 16.13 | -4.87 |
| Salomón Rondón | Newcastle United | 31 | 2526 | 10 | 7 | 84 | 32 | 9.5 | 3.41 | 12.92 | -4.08 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | Chelsea | 23 | 879 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 14 | 3.03 | 0.93 | 3.97 | -4.03 |
| Aaron Ramsey | Arsenal | 28 | 1326 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 25 | 3.71 | 2.3 | 6.01 | -3.99 |
| José Holebas | Watford | 27 | 2345 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 34 | 0.94 | 4.29 | 5.23 | -3.77 |
| Mark Noble | West Ham | 30 | 2249 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 2.72 | 1.65 | 4.37 | -3.63 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | Liverpool | 28 | 2385 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 45 | 1.46 | 6.99 | 8.45 | -3.55 |
| Sergio Agüero | Manchester City | 32 | 2425 | 20 | 8 | 114 | 33 | 19.3 | 5.18 | 24.48 | -3.52 |
| Xherdan Shaqiri | Liverpool | 24 | 1048 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 20 | 4.06 | 1.89 | 5.95 | -3.05 |
| Dwight McNeil | Burnley | 20 | 1543 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 1.83 | 3.41 | 5.24 | -2.76 |
| Benjamin Mendy | Manchester City | 10 | 900 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 0.23 | 2.05 | 2.27 | -2.73 |
| Youri Tielemans | Leicester | 12 | 1008 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 16 | 1.98 | 2.5 | 4.49 | -2.51 |
| Ciaran Clark | Newcastle United | 11 | 850 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.05 | 0.52 | -2.48 |
| Andrew Robertson | Liverpool | 35 | 3138 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 49 | 0.84 | 7.75 | 8.59 | -2.41 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | Southampton | 30 | 2680 | 4 | 3 | 53 | 28 | 2.26 | 2.35 | 4.6 | -2.4 |
| Shane Duffy | Brighton | 34 | 2997 | 5 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 3.37 | 0.27 | 3.64 | -2.36 |
Posted May 7, 2019, 11:08 AM UTC · edited